Since last week, the A-share market has bottomed out and rebounded. On May 17, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red.
Private equity managers are strategically optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of the year.
Many private equity firms maintain a neutral attitude towards the short-term market, and their attitudes have turned warmer than last month. Compared with last month, most uncertain factors have improved marginally, and valuations have fallen further. However, the market rebound still needs high-frequency data support, and there is no short-term index. Level Quotes.
Private placement chooses to gradually increase positions
It is undeniable that due to the drastic market adjustment in the early stage and the lack of market confidence, private equity yields and positions both declined.
In terms of rate of return, according to the data of Chaoyang Perpetual Fund Research Platform, all private equity strategies in April were all adjusted back. The average return of stock strategy in April was only -6.15%, the median was -4.45%, and the average return of the top 1/4 products was only -6.15%. was 1.33%.
Among the 19,697 products in the statistics, less than 20% of the products have positive returns.
Private placements also continued to decline.
According to the data of private placement Pai Pai.com, as of May 6, the stock private placement index was 69.76%. Compared with the previous week, the stock private placement index decreased by 1.46%.
Among them, 46.97% of the stock private placement positions are over 80%, 26.09% of the stock private placement positions are between 50% and 80%, and another 26.94% of the stock private placement positions are less than 50%.
In terms of scale, the ten billion private placement index currently has the highest position. As of May 6, the ten billion private placement index was 73.96%. Compared with the previous week, the ten billion private placement index dropped by 2.08%.
Among them, 52.50% of the 10 billion stock private placement positions exceeded 80%, 25.70% of the 10 billion stock private placement positions were between 50-80%, and another 21.8% of the 10 billion stock private placement positions were less than 50%.
However, conservative operations have changed recently, and many private equity firms have expressed their choice to gradually increase their positions.
A person related to Xuanyuan Investment recently said: "The company has been shrinking its positions since the beginning of the year, and kept its positions at a low level before the market adjusted sharply. Since late April, our overall strategy has shifted to actively looking for bottom-up stocks. Opportunities, dilute the industry and near-end suppressing factors, look for companies with a clear growth curve in the next 2-3 years, and make appropriate layouts on the left side.”
"At the current stage, we believe that it is a very good time to build a portfolio in the dimension of 2-3 years and steadily increase positions." Wangzheng Asset said that it will focus on high-quality individual stocks and high-prosperity industries.
"We will no longer take the initiative to reduce positions, but will start to look for opportunities for excess returns from the perspective of 1 to 2 years." Juming Investment also said that it will gradually reduce defensive positions and comprehensively look for opportunities for growth.
There may be no "near worry" for A shares
Previously, the A-share market continued to fall, and there was no decent rebound during the period. The negative risks were fully digested, and the valuation has entered the bottom area. More and more private equity markets are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the follow-up equity market.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong Times, pointed out that the continuity of policies and themes has weakened in recent days.
The market needs a new direction of policy stimulus, as well as a tangible turnaround in industry data.
In terms of policies to maintain growth in new areas, investors are advised to pay attention to the new trends of special government bonds and their investment directions, such as logistics and new medical infrastructure (including normalized construction of epidemic prevention, county-level medical infrastructure, and domestic replacement of medical equipment).
At the beginning of next month, Shanghai will fully return to normal, and it is necessary to focus on the automobile industry chain and local offline consumption in Shanghai.
While optional consumption and low-level upstream cyclical products are the key allocation directions after the nationwide epidemic has improved.
Official Lei, chief researcher of Star Stone Investment, also believes that the worst time for the whole year is over, and the follow-up economy and "easy credit" will continue to improve in the medium and long term.
For the capital market, the weak data in April is expected, and the market's large adjustment in the early stage has a high probability of reasonably pricing the impact of the epidemic on the economy.
Looking back, the certainty of the recovery of the epidemic at the national level is extremely high. With the high-frequency data confirming the positive trend of the economy in the medium term and the continuous recovery of confidence in the stock market, there may be no "immediate worries" for A shares.
Shen Shengcai, a researcher at Ningshui Capital, pointed out that the major broad-based and style indexes of the market have risen recently, and the growth style of small and medium-sized stocks is dominant.
With the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the gradual development of the policy of stabilizing growth, the mid-stream and downstream growth stocks and related growth-stabilizing industry chains have ushered in a more direct expected improvement.
Technology growth sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and cloud computing have a certain room for valuation repair, while traditional industries with low valuations and high dividends, such as coal, infrastructure, and banks, are more defensive.
Freshwater Investment believes that, on the one hand, the Politburo meeting is already exerting efforts to stabilize growth and rectify policy deviations. On the other hand, the Fed’s interest rate hike peak will gradually pass after June, and the most stressful stage of the A-share market will also pass.
"We are still actively deploying three main lines: first, high-end manufacturing for supply chain repair, second, high-quality leading companies for consumer service repair, and third, new energy industries such as photovoltaics with high demand. Considering the government's determination to stabilize growth, we There are also some allocations in the traditional stable growth sectors. Generally speaking, the current and future allocations will be relatively balanced. After the uncertainties gradually ease, we will increase the allocation of growth industries.”