This year, GDP = gross domestic product from January to March will be announced on the 18th.
Private consumption seems to have fallen due to the application of priority measures such as spread prevention during the period, and the average growth rate of the private sector is minus 1.36% on an annualized basis.
The GDP from January to March will be announced by the Cabinet Office as breaking news at 8:50 am on the 18th.
The average forecast of 36 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest corporation, shows that the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations is minus 1.36% on an annualized basis compared to the previous three months. It has become.
If it actually becomes negative, it will be the first time in two terms.
Of these, the average forecast for "personal consumption" is minus 0.64% compared to the previous three months.
During this period, priority measures such as prevention of spread were applied to various places due to the spread of Omicron strain, and it seems that "personal consumption" has declined mainly for eating out and traveling.
On the other hand, “exports” are expected to remain strong at + 1.42%, and “corporate capital investment” is forecast to be + 0.64%.
In addition, the average GDP forecast for the year 2021 announced last year is + 2.27% in real terms.
Although it will turn positive from the previous year, which was the largest drop since 1981, which can be compared with minus 4.5% due to the influence of the new corona, it seems to support the lack of strength in recovery.
Consumption, which depends on the status of infection, is a drag on recovery
Two years have passed since the spread of the new corona.
Japan's GDP has not yet reached its pre-corona peak, and consumption, which depends on the status of infection, continues to hamper recovery.
Before the spread of the new corona, GDP from October to December 2019, three years ago, was 542 trillion yen on an annualized basis, assuming that it lasted for one year.
GDP will recover from April to June 2020, but after that, it will continue to move up and down.
After the state of emergency was lifted, GDP from October to December last year (2021) reached 540 trillion yen on an annualized basis, and the government says that it has "almost recovered to the level before Corona."
However, it has not reached the peak of 557 trillion yen from July to September 2019, which was the peak before the spread of infection.
A major factor in the slow recovery is the trend of "personal consumption," which accounts for more than half of GDP.
Before the spread of the infection, personal consumption from October to December 2019 was 293 trillion yen on an annualized basis.
After that, personal consumption repeats positive and negative depending on the infection situation, and GDP as a whole moves in the same way.
Personal consumption from October to December last year was 293 trillion yen on an annualized basis, almost the same level as before the spread of the infection, but it has not reached the peak before the spread.
Currently, priority measures such as prevention of spread have been lifted in March, and while travel and eating out are expected to recover, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is accelerating the rise in energy and food prices.
The successive rises in prices have cooled consumer sentiment and are a cause for concern about the future of personal consumption.Keywords: