China New Observation | Inventory of the population of 31 provinces: Guangdong is the most prosperous, and the northeast continues to grow negatively

　　Zhongxin Finance, May 18 (Reporter Li Jinlei) With the disclosure of Jilin's 2021 population data, the 2021 population data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have been released.

Although the details of the population data released by each province are different, some characteristics and changes of the times can also be glimpsed from it.

Drawing by Li Jinlei of China-Singapore Finance and Economics

Guangdong's two firsts: the most populous and the most productive

　　Guangdong is not only the most populous province in China, but also the province with the largest population by birth. It is a well-deserved population champion.

　　Data show that by the end of 2021, Guangdong has a resident population of 126.84 million and an annual birth population of 1.1831 million, both ranking first in the country.

　　Throughout the country, Guangdong is the only province with a birth population of more than 1 million.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, there will be 10.62 million births in the country in 2021. Based on this calculation, Guangdong alone will contribute 11% of the births.

　　As the largest economic province of Guangdong, the population performance is thriving, and the inflow of population is a great contribution.

According to the seventh national census data, Guangdong has increased its population by more than 21.7 million people in the past 10 years, the largest in the country.

　　Feng Wenmeng, director and researcher of the Research Office of the Institute of Public Administration and Human Resources of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed China-Singapore Finance and Economics that Guangdong has been a major population inflow area since the reform and opening up, and a large number of young floating population flow to Guangdong. From the perspective of age structure, Guangdong is a relatively young province. The young people who came to Guangdong to work have gradually reached the age of marriage and childbirth. Therefore, the number of children born is relatively large.

Births are declining

　　Judging from the provinces that release birth population data, the decline in birth population has become a general trend, and the number of birth population in many provinces will hit a new low in 2021.

　　Shandong, once known as the "province most daring to give birth", has fewer births.

After the full liberalization of the second child, the birth population in Shandong soared to 1,770,600 in 2016, and continued to maintain a high level of 1,749,800 in 2017, but has since declined to 1,329,500 in 2018, 1,183,900 in 2019, and a decrease in 2021. to 750,400 people.

　　With the decline in the number of births, Shandong's population is also facing an important turning point. Its natural population growth rate in 2021 is only 0.02‰, which is only one step away from the natural negative population growth.

　　As the third most populous province, the number of births in Henan has fallen below 800,000.

The data shows that the annual birth population of Henan was 793,000, with a birth rate of 8.00‰; the death population was 730,000, with a population death rate of 7.36‰; the natural increase was 63,000, and the natural growth rate was 0.64‰.

　　In 2021, Jiangxi's birth population will be 377,000, a decrease of 50,400 from 427,400 in 2020. The birth population will be less than 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s.

Jiangxi Bureau of Statistics analysis believes that the decline in births is mainly due to factors such as the delayed age of marriage and childbearing, the weakening of the "two-child policy", and the lack of the "three-child policy".

Data map: Parents take their children to play waves at the beach.

Photo by You Jianxing

Naturally negative population growth in at least 11 provinces

　　Let’s look at the natural population growth rate. The natural population growth rate refers to the ratio of the number of natural population increases (the number of births minus the number of deaths) to the average number of people (or the number of people in the period) during a certain period of time (usually one year), expressed in thousand points. rate indicated.

Natural population growth rate = population birth rate - population death rate.

　　Among the provinces that announced the natural population growth rate, the highest is Tibet, reaching 8.70‰.

Next is Ningxia, reaching 5.53‰, and the third is Guizhou, reaching 4.98‰.

　　Among them, 11 provinces have negative natural population growth rates, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Shanxi.

　　The natural growth rate of many provinces turned negative for the first time in many years.

Among them, the natural population growth rate of Jiangsu is -1.12‰, which is the first time that Jiangsu's annual natural population growth rate has turned negative since the founding of the People's Republic of China.

　　This is mainly due to a sharp decrease in the number of births, leading to a rapid decline in natural population growth.

From 2016 to 2019, the number of births in Jiangsu's permanent population began to decline slightly, but it still remained above 700,000 each year. The number of births in 2020 and 2021 fell below 600,000 and 500,000 in a row.

　　According to the analysis of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the decline in the number of births in the permanent population is mainly due to three factors: First, the number of women of childbearing age has dropped significantly.

Second, the age of women's first marriage has been delayed.

Third, the educational level of women has been greatly improved.

As the education level of women increases, it will lead to fewer or no births.

In addition, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has also had a certain impact on the marriage and childbirth arrangements of some young people.

The population of the three northeastern provinces continues to "negatively grow"

　　The natural population growth rate of the three northeastern provinces is the lowest among the three provinces. Among them, the natural population growth rate of Heilongjiang is -5.11‰, the natural population growth rate of Liaoning is -4.18‰, and the natural population growth rate of Jilin is -3.38‰.

　　Among them, the annual birth population of Liaoning was 200,000, and the annual birth population of Jilin was 112,200.

　　Overall, the population loss in the Northeast is very serious.

The seventh national census data shows that the population of Northeast China has decreased by 11.01 million in 10 years, of which Heilongjiang has decreased by more than 6.46 million, making it the province with the largest population loss.

　　Feng Wenmeng analyzed that the relatively low birth rate in the three northeastern provinces is due to the small population of young people. This is mainly due to the serious population outflow in the northeastern region in recent years. Local climate factors, economic growth and employment in recent years have led to the outflow of a large number of young people. The decline in the number of people who are married and have children naturally leads to fewer births.

The higher mortality rate is because the outflow of young people also leads to a relatively higher degree of aging in the Northeast region, and the number of elderly people is relatively large, which also leads to a relatively increase in the number of deaths.

Therefore, the decline in the birth rate and the increase in the death rate will lead to a relatively low natural population growth rate.

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