"The U.S. alone will recover the economy... A strong dollar is likely"

While the recovery of the global economy is slowing due to the Russia-Ukraine war and the Chinese blockade, it is predicted that the strong dollar will continue for the time being.

The Institute for Foreign Economic Policy (President Kim Heung-jong) held a press conference today (17th) and announced the world economic outlook for 2022.

"The US economy's gradual growth trend, monetary tightening policy, and growing uncertainty are the factors contributing to the strength of the dollar," the Korea External Affairs Association explained.

As for the won-dollar exchange rate, analysis showed that the stalemate in the Ukraine war, rising oil and raw material prices, the trade deficit, and the accelerated tightening of the US Fed's currency are the factors contributing to the weakening of the won.

On the other hand, strong exports, economic recovery following the easing of quarantine measures, and continued inflow of foreign bond funds were cited as factors that could cause the exchange rate to fall compared to now.

In this regard, President Kim Heung-jong said, "It is difficult to predict how the won-dollar exchange rate will move in the future when the US alone is recovering the economy. said.

Director Kim added, "There is little chance that the won-dollar exchange rate will rise significantly compared to the foreign exchange crisis."

On this day, the Korea Institute for International Relations lowered all forecasts for global economic growth in 2022, including Korea, from the second half of last year.

The global economy fell from 4.6% in November last year to 3.5% this month, and for individual countries, the United States lowered it from 3.8% to 3.3%, and Europe lowered it to 2.8% from 4.6%.

Japan from 3.3% to 2.0%, China from 5.5% to 5.1%, India from 7.9% to 7.4%, the five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) also from 5.2% to 5.1%, and 1.5% for Brazil predicted at 0.8%.

War-worn Russia is projected to drop sharply from 2.9% growth to -9.5%.

The Korea Institute for International Relations predicted that the economy will normalize next year as Corona 19 ends, but the increase will be slower than originally predicted.