Zhongxin Finance, May 16 (Zuo Yukun) What is the latest situation of the real estate market?

A set of data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th can be peeked into.

  On the 16th, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first four months of this year, the sales of commercial housing nationwide fell by 29.5% year-on-year, and the sales area of ​​residential buildings fell by 25.4% year-on-year.

Data map: A new residential building in an urban area of ​​a city.

(UAV photo) Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming

Core indicators collectively weakened

  From the perspective of supply, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3,915.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; of which, residential investment was 2,952.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1%.

  Regarding the growth rate of real estate development investment turning negative year-on-year, Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that this is the first negative growth since June 2020.

"The investment confidence of real estate enterprises has not yet fully recovered, and the market recovery process has slowed down due to the interference of the epidemic."

  Chen Wenjing, the market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, also mentioned that the lack of activity on the sales side still drags down companies' willingness to start construction and investment. hot cities, new construction, investment or improvement.

National real estate development investment growth rate.

Image source: National Bureau of Statistics official website

  From the perspective of demand, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to April, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 397.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; among which, the sales area of ​​residential buildings decreased by 25.4%.

The sales of commercial housing were 3,778.9 billion yuan, down 29.5%; among which, the sales of residential buildings fell by 32.2%.

  "Market confidence has not yet fully recovered, housing companies are not motivated enough to push the market, and buyers are still in a wait-and-see mood." As for the reasons for the poor performance of commercial housing sales, in addition to the menacing epidemic, the industry generally mentioned weak market expectations as a factor.

  Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, explained that repeated epidemics and geopolitical conflicts have increased the downward pressure on the economy. The decline in income expectations has led to a reduction in residents' risk appetite, and the recovery of market confidence has been hindered.

National commercial housing sales area and sales growth rate.

Image source: National Bureau of Statistics official website

Sales figures expected to pick up after June

  "Although the sales data is under pressure, the decline is actually controllable." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that with the advancement of various favorable policies, the concerns of real estate companies are constantly reducing and slowing down. If the follow-up sales data improves , the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land will be boosted again.

  Recently, from the central to local governments, policies to stabilize the property market have been frequent.

On May 15, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a document stating that for households who take out loans to buy ordinary self-owned houses, the lower limit of the interest rate of the first commercial personal housing loan will be adjusted to not less than the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding term minus 20 basis points. , the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for second housing shall be implemented in accordance with the current regulations.

  Xu Xiaole believes that the nationwide mortgage interest rate cut is expected to improve the situation that sales continue to decline.

According to the data from the Shell Research Institute, the average interest rate of the first home loan in 100 cities in April was 5.17%, which is still far from the current lower limit of 4.4%. .

  According to the monitoring of the China Index Research Institute, since 2022, more than 100 cities across the country have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies more than 200 times. After the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee at the end of April to set the real estate market, the pace and intensity of policy optimization in various regions continued to increase, but the short-term market recovery The rhythm still depends on the effective prevention and control of the epidemic and the implementation of local policies.

  Chen Xiao pointed out that the policies currently introduced are mostly focused on the demand side, and the measures introduced are mostly focused on relaxing the conditions of provident fund loans, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing restrictions on purchases and sales, etc. The later policy side also needs to consider the introduction of innovative policies, such as Changsha. The recent introduction of the new lease-purchase linkage new policy and other forms.

  Yan Yuejin mentioned that from the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, it shows that the bubble in housing prices is decreasing, superimposing various favorable policies, and a new window period for house purchases is also opening.

  Chen Xiao judged that it is expected that as the impact of the epidemic gradually dissipates, the policy effect from the central to the local will gradually appear, and it is expected that the sales data will usher in a significant rebound after June.

(Finish)