According to the commission, the war in Ukraine slowed down the post-pandemic recovery, but did not reverse the trend.
When presenting the forecast in Brussels on Monday, EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that an unchanged robust labor market, the almost complete end of the corona lockdowns “and the EU recovery fund” should ensure that, despite the economic burdens of the war in the Ukraine's economy will pick up speed again.
Vice-President for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis added that the EU economy was growing very solidly before the war broke out.
"This trend is here to stay."
Werner Mussler
Business correspondent in Brussels.
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In the assessment of the inflation outlook, however, the EU authority has changed its opinion significantly compared to February.
While she had forecast 3.5 percent (2022) and 1.7 percent (2023) for the euro area, she now no longer sees inflation as a temporary phenomenon in the medium term.
She expects 6.1 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year.
Gentiloni justified the higher inflation exclusively with the increased energy prices due to the war and with supply chains that are still interrupted.
According to the Commission, the solid growth prospects will also result in new borrowing and the debt ratio in the euro area falling over the next two years.
The national deficit will decrease from 5.1 percent of economic output in 2021 to 3.7 percent (2022) and 2.5 percent (2023).
The debt ratio will also fall, from 97.4 percent of economic output (2021) to 94.7 percent (2022) and 92.7 percent (2023).
According to this, Germany will approach the Maastricht reference value of 60 percent again in the coming year after significantly higher debts and – at least in its “regular” budgets – will still show 64.5 percent.
Gentiloni left open whether, given the relatively favorable economic development, he would refrain from proposing a further suspension of the EU budget rules beyond the end of 2022.
The decision will be made in the coming week, said the Italian.