Zhongxin Finance, May 16 (Reporter Li Jinlei) How much impact has the domestic epidemic spread since March on economic operation?
The National Bureau of Statistics released April economic data on the 16th and gave the answer: major economic indicators declined, especially consumption in April, which fell by 11.1% year-on-year.
The new downward pressure on the economy has further increased, and the Chinese economy has encountered a "cold spring".
On the 16th, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, the first question that the reporter threw to the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, was "how to view this decline".
However, Fu Linghui
rarely talked about the weather at the beginning of the chapter.
"Since this year, due to seasonal changes, the overall temperature in Beijing has increased, but some time ago, due to the arrival of cold air, Beijing has cooled down, and the weather has changed. This week, the weather in Beijing is heating up, and the change in temperature has a certain trend. Short-term temperature Changes are abnormal fluctuations, but they cannot change the overall gradual warming trend of the weather."
The reason why Fu Linghui talks about the weather is that the trend of China's economy this year is very similar to the weather.
The changes in the "temperature" of China's economy this year can be felt from the title of the press release issued by the National Bureau of Statistics.
From January to February, "the recovery of the national economy was better than expected". At that time, various accelerated data indeed exceeded market expectations.
In the first quarter, "the national economy had an overall stable start", and the growth rate of 4.8% was uneventful.
This time, it emphasized that "the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the general trend of high-quality development has not changed."
"Increasing downward pressure on the economy" was directly the title of the National Bureau of Statistics' April National Economic Operation Bulletin.
Behind this is the unexpected impact of the more complex and severe international environment and the obvious impact of the domestic epidemic.
From the perspective of the "troika" driving economic growth, in April, consumption fell by 11.1% year-on-year, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) fell by 0.82% month-on-month, and exports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the 12.9% in March .
From the perspective of people's livelihood indicators, the surveyed urban unemployment rate has risen to 6.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The national consumer price rose by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of real estate sales, from January to April, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 397.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; the sales of commercial housing was 3,778.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5%.
It seems that overnight, no one wants or buys a house.
According to data from the central bank, housing loans fell by 60.5 billion yuan in April, a decrease of 402.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
China's economic operation is obviously facing many difficulties.
At this moment, one of the questions that everyone is most concerned about is, will there be negative growth in the second quarter?
What is the future trend of China's economy?
In this regard, Fu Linghui bluntly stated that
the main industrial and service industries declined in April, but this does not mean that the entire economic operation will decline in the second quarter
.
Various corporate relief policies are continuing to exert force, and it is believed that the second quarter will still maintain a good growth trend.
At the press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics made an important judgment——
Economic performance is expected to improve in May.
Fu Linghui said that now the epidemic situation in Jilin, Shanghai and other places has been effectively controlled, the resumption of work and production is progressing in an orderly manner, and a series of policies and measures such as expanding domestic demand, helping enterprises to bail out, ensuring stable supply and stable prices, and protecting people's livelihood are taking effect. Economic performance is expected to improve.
On the same day, news also came from the press conference in Shanghai:
At present, 15 districts of the city's 16 districts have achieved social zero.
From June 1 to the mid-to-late period, normal production and living order will be fully restored.
Shanghai Bund data map.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao
In addition, it is worth noting that the National Bureau of Statistics gave a judgment on the future trend of China's economy in the economic data press release——
The national economy is expected to stabilize and recover.
What is the reason for making this judgment?
Fu Linghui gave five points of basis. First, my country's economy is huge and has strong resilience to risk shocks.
Second, the basic industries are strongly supported and the supply guarantee capability is strong.
Third, the market is effective in ensuring supply and stable prices, and the overall social situation is generally stable.
Fourth, the trend of transformation and upgrading has not changed, and new kinetic energy has continued to grow.
Fifth, the adjustment of macroeconomic policies is intensified, and economic performance is expected to improve at a faster pace.
He believes that the
disturbance of the epidemic will not change the trend of the stable operation of China's economy, nor will it change the characteristics of China's economy with sufficient resilience, great potential, and wide space. With the support of various policies, the national economy will recover faster and achieve stabilization and recovery.
Obviously, this is trying to send a signal to the outside world: there are short-term fluctuations, but the long-term trend remains unchanged.
The epidemic in April had a relatively large impact on the economic operation, but this impact was short-term and external.
The "falling spring cold" will eventually pass.
Right now, China's economy is also trying to overcome the adverse effects, especially trying to stabilize the main engine of the economy - consumption.
In the past weekend, many major policies have been introduced. Among them, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have adjusted the differentiated housing credit policies in order to reduce the cost of purchasing houses and boost real estate sales.
Regarding how to boost consumption, many economists have recently publicly suggested issuing consumer coupons. Li Daokui, dean of the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, suggested that direct cash subsidies be given to the affected people.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told Zhongxin Finance that the epidemic must be controlled as soon as possible to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy.
Macro policies should focus on the goals of stabilizing employment, prices, and growth, increase counter-cyclical adjustment, form a joint force to bail out difficult industries, enterprises and individuals, boost domestic effective demand, reverse expectations as soon as possible, and accelerate the stabilization and recovery of the economy.
(Finish)