[Economic Watch] The epidemic has impacted financing demand, and the market is expected to increase policy overweight
After the credit expansion in the first quarter, the growth of new RMB loans in April slowed significantly.
Recently, the People's Bank of China released a report on financial statistics for April. In April, RMB loans increased by 645.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 823.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
Affected by this, the statistical report on the increase of social financing scale released in the same period shows that the increase in social financing scale in April was 910.2 billion yuan, 946.8 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year.
The credit data in April was cold, and the impact of the epidemic was the first to bear the brunt.
The relevant person in charge of the People’s Bank of China said that the growth of RMB loans in April slowed down significantly, and the increase was much lower than that of the same period last year, reflecting that the impact of the recent epidemic on the real economy has become more apparent, and factors such as shortage of factors and rising production costs of raw materials have been added. It is because the operating difficulties of small, medium and micro enterprises have increased, and the demand for effective financing has dropped significantly.
In April, corporate loans decreased by 176.8 billion yuan year-on-year, of which short-term loans decreased by 194.8 billion yuan, showing that the epidemic has severely impacted enterprises in stages.
Some analysts pointed out that the production and operation of some enterprises were in trouble or even stopped, and their intention to expand financing was not strong, resulting in an imbalance between the credit supply of financial institutions and the financing needs of the real economy. The main reason for the increase.
At the same time, the financing needs of the household sector also declined.
In April, household loans decreased by 217 billion yuan, a decrease of 745.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
In terms of structure, housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 402.2 billion yuan year-on-year; consumer loans excluding housing loans decreased by 104.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 186.1 billion yuan year-on-year; business loans decreased by 52.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 156.9 billion yuan year-on-year Yuan.
Some experts said that the three categories of resident loans mentioned above have all declined, reflecting that this round of epidemic has had a greater impact on production and consumption.
Contrary to the performance of new social financing, RMB deposits increased by 90.9 billion yuan in April, an increase of 816.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
In the first four months, household deposits and non-financial corporate deposits increased by 7.12 trillion yuan and 1.27 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 2.01 trillion yuan and 1.37 trillion yuan respectively over the same period of the previous year.
Under the influence of multiple uncertain factors such as the impact of the epidemic and weak income growth expectations, the real sector has an increased appetite for currency holdings to avoid risks, the financing needs have been suppressed, and passive savings have been further pushed up. This momentum has been shown before.
According to a questionnaire survey by the People's Bank of China in the first quarter, 54.7% of residents prefer "more savings", an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the previous quarter; while 21.6% of residents prefer "more investment", a decrease from the previous quarter 1.9 percentage points.
Some institutional analysts believe that when economic development faces uncertainty, the mismatch between risks and benefits is a phased phenomenon.
There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the pullback in April credit data.
The negative impact of the epidemic on economic operation is staged. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual emergence of the effects of a series of policies to stabilize growth, the economy suppressed by the epidemic in the early stage will gradually recover.
At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 249.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.
Many experts pointed out that the return of M2 to double-digit growth shows that the prudent monetary policy is more active, and the support of the active fiscal policy is more powerful.
After the release of the credit data in April, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China said that in the next stage, stable growth will be placed in a more prominent position, the implementation of a prudent monetary policy will be increased, and the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools will be better utilized. Dual functions, speed up the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced, proactively plan incremental policy tools, stabilize the total amount of credit, reduce financing costs, strengthen support for key areas and weak links, and support economic operation within a reasonable range.
Judging from market reflections, all sectors of the community expressed optimism about the subsequent recovery in credit demand, and at the same time, expectations for overweight policies to stabilize growth continued to heat up.
In view of the current reasonable and sufficient liquidity of banking and financial institutions, many institutions believe that the policy will be changed from loose money to loose credit, and the reduction of loan interest rates will become a major force for the recovery of credit demand.
Our reporter Bei Mengyuan