Experts talk about how to achieve the expected annual development goals——
Ensuring that the economy operates within a reasonable range
Our reporter Xiong Li
At present, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of my country's economic development environment are on the rise.
The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on April 29 pointed out that it is necessary to intensify the adjustment of macro policies, stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
What do you think of the current economic situation and what should we do?
Experts said that it is necessary to pay attention to the current difficulties and challenges, but also to see the general trend of long-term development. It is necessary to implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, strengthen confidence, stabilize expectations, maintain determination, and seek stability. to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
A smooth start against the odds
Since the beginning of this year, the complexity and uncertainty of domestic and foreign environments have risen sharply.
From an international perspective, the epidemic is still spreading in the 20th century, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, global inflationary pressures are rising significantly, and the risk of spillovers from the tightening of monetary policies in major economies is increasing.
From a domestic point of view, the epidemic has many points, wide areas, and frequent occurrences, which has a greater impact on economic recovery. Since March, demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations have become more prominent, and some unexpected factors have increased significantly.
In the face of the complex and severe domestic and international situation, my country has timely introduced policies that are conducive to economic stability, and made efforts to accelerate and accelerate.
In the first quarter, GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and a month-on-month increase of 1.3%.
The CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, which was generally in the moderate range.
2.85 million new urban jobs were created, and the national average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.5%.
"From the perspective of the first quarter, my country's economic operation has achieved a stable start." Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said at a seminar on the economic situation held by the China International Economic Exchange Center recently. Stabilizing employment, prices, foreign trade, and foreign investment has achieved results, and major macro indicators are within a reasonable range.
The basic industries of the real economy, basic investment, basic consumption, and other production and living basics are stable in terms of indicators.
Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the repeated spread of the global epidemic, the economic growth of major economies has generally been lower than expected.
Looking at the world, my country's economic aggregate ranks second in the world, and its economic growth rate ranks among the top, and it continues to be an important driving force for world economic growth.
"China's economic growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter still ranks among the top of the world's major economies, and the inflation level is relatively low, the industry continues to recover, investment demand, especially infrastructure investment, rebounds, and innovation momentum is increasing." China Center for International Economic Exchanges Vice Chairman Wang Yiming said that China's economy has shown resilience amid unexpected changes in the internal and external environment.
Short-term downturn has not changed long-term positive fundamentals
Ning Jizhe said that my country is facing a complex and severe situation in which the epidemic situation of the century and the changes of the century are superimposed on each other. Judging from some data in March and individual leading indicators in April, the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still increasing. Downward pressure is also mounting.
"Under such circumstances, it is necessary to grasp the short-term situation changes from the general trend of long-term development. We must not only pay attention to the new changes and challenges in the short-term economic operation, but also see that the short-term economic downturn has not changed the long-term positive fundamentals." Wang Yiming said, Only in this way can we avoid being "led by the nose" due to short-term indicator fluctuations, maintain strategic focus, enhance confidence, and effectively deal with various risks and challenges.
Taking foreign foreign trade as an example, Zhang Xiaoqiang, executive vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the current global industrial chain supply chain is affected to a certain extent, and the trend of anti-globalization is increasing, which will indeed have a negative impact on my country's foreign trade, foreign investment and foreign investment. To attach great importance.
However, it should be noted that my country still has many strategic favorable conditions in stabilizing the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment.
According to a recent report released by the German Chamber of Commerce in China and the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 71% of German-funded companies and two-thirds of US-funded companies hope to increase investment in China.
Zhang Xiaoqiang believes that this reflects the advantages of China's industrial chain, especially the attractiveness of the huge market.
Taking the automotive industry as an example, Tesla said it would expand the production capacity of its Shanghai plant; BMW Group increased its capital by 27.9 billion yuan, increasing its stake in BMW Brilliance from 50% to 75%.
This is the actual result of China's measures to further expand foreign investment access in manufacturing-related fields.
"In the process of stabilizing the economy and striving to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year, my country has the confidence and conditions to stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment, and will continue to make important contributions to promoting the recovery of the world economy and building an open world economy. Contribution." Zhang Xiaoqiang said.
Zhang Dawei, vice chairman and secretary general of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that since the beginning of this year, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have successively implemented a series of macro-control policies. The tax policy and the policy of increasing the amount of tax rebates have had positive effects and generated good expectations.
With the application and effect of policy tools, market confidence will gradually recover.
Efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic development
Ning Jizhe said that in the next step, we must conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, adhere to the principle of stability, and seek progress while maintaining stability. Coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase macro policy adjustment in a targeted manner, stabilize the economy, and strive to achieve the expected economic and social development goals for the year.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee demanded that we should adhere to the expansion of high-level opening up, actively respond to the demands of foreign-funded enterprises to facilitate business in China, and stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment.
Zhang Xiaoqiang said that in terms of the use of foreign capital, it is necessary to coordinate and solve the resumption of work and production of foreign-funded enterprises, promote the accelerated implementation of major projects, strengthen service guarantees for foreign investment, thoroughly implement the negative list for foreign investment access, and implement national treatment for foreign-funded enterprises.
At the same time, guide foreign investors to optimize their investment structure, provide them with more and better development opportunities in green and low-carbon, digital economy, high-tech manufacturing and modern service industries, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.
"Under the interaction of domestic and foreign factors, many market players, especially small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, have more difficulties in production and operation, and they are worried about the development prospects. At this time, they are often more sensitive to changes in economic operation and policy signals. Market signals and Emotions are easily amplified." Wang Yiming said that under the current complex and severe situation, we must pay more attention to expectation management, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and strengthen communication with market players, so that market players can better understand policy intentions and prevent misreading and misjudgment. , to avoid major market volatility.
To stabilize expectations, we must first increase macroeconomic policy adjustment.
Wang Yiming said that my country's inflation rate and deficit rate are currently at a low level, the government debt ratio is also within a reasonable range, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and there are still sufficient tools in the toolbox of proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.
In accordance with the requirements of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee, we must promptly plan incremental policy tools to keep policy responses ahead of the market curve.
Considering that the financing needs of market players are still weak, the coordination and linkage of monetary policy and fiscal policy should be better strengthened.
In terms of active fiscal policy, Liu Qiao, Dean of Peking University Guanghua School of Management, suggested that long-term treasury bonds can be considered and invested in the node fields corresponding to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal, key areas of digital transformation and new infrastructure, basic research, etc., and even include It is used to stabilize market entities, issue cash or consumer coupons to residents, and so on.
Wang Yiming believes that there must be some landmark actions to stabilize expectations, and further measures must be taken to improve regulatory policies, especially platform economic regulatory policies.
In accordance with the spirit of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee, we should speed up the completion of the special rectification of the platform economy, gradually shift to normalized supervision, improve supervision policies, and improve supervision transparency and predictability in accordance with the principles of marketization, rule of law, and internationalization.
Handle the relationship between regulation and development well, clarify rules, draw a clear bottom line, strengthen supervision, and standardize order, so as to better promote the sustainable and healthy development of the platform economy.
In addition, it is necessary to use reform methods to solve problems in development, and to accelerate the implementation of reform measures that have an important impact on stabilizing expectations.Keywords: