Zhongxin Finance, May 11 (Ge Cheng) In the first quarter, the new energy vehicle industry chain is quite interesting.
As companies report their financial reports one after another, the performance of each company can be described as "very different".
Some companies have achieved "lie down and win", some companies "increased income without increasing profits", and some companies "faced double pressure".
Data map: New energy vehicle factory.
Photo by Sun Qiuxia
In the first quarter, who earned the upper, middle and lower reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain?
Who lost?
Who is the most stressed?
Upstream: there is "lithium" lying down to win
Since 2021, the price of lithium carbonate, an important material for power batteries, has been on the rise.
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 50,000 yuan in early 2021 to around 500,000 yuan, and has risen about tenfold in the past year.
According to Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the rapid growth of global demand for new energy vehicles has produced a progressive demand amplification effect in the field of batteries and materials, which is the main reason for the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices since last year.
The rise in the price of lithium carbonate directly drives the performance of listed companies in lithium mines.
Data show that in the first quarter of 2022, the combined net profit of 14 listed lithium mining companies increased nearly four times year-on-year.
Specifically, the profits of leading companies in the industry have increased significantly.
Ganfeng Lithium’s net profit in the first quarter was 3.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 640.41%; Salt Lake’s first-quarter net profit was 3.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 353.97%; Tianqi Lithium’s first-quarter net profit was 3.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1442%; Rongjie’s net profit in the first quarter was 254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13996%.
Recently, although affected by the epidemic, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped slightly, but it is still at a high level.
As of press time, the quotation for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 478,000 yuan per ton.
According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price of lithium concentrate is expected to rise to more than US$5,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2022 due to factors such as the decline in mine grade, production disturbance and production capacity climbing, which is equivalent to the domestic production cost of lithium salt rising to per ton. At 400,000 yuan, there is limited room for lithium carbonate to fall.
At the same time, the importance of lithium raw material security is also increasing.
Ouyang Minggao predicts that the balance of supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal in 2-3 years. In this process, cyclical fluctuations are still inevitable, and it is expected that there will be excess supply and demand in 2025.
In this way, for a period of time, upstream companies will still maintain such a state.
Midstream: increasing revenue but not profit
The increase in the price of upstream materials has also directly led to the midstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain-power battery manufacturers "increasing revenue without increasing profits".
The specific performance is that the demand is still strong and the profit margin is insufficient.
The financial report shows that in the first quarter, CATL’s revenue was 48.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62% and a month-on-month decrease of 81.75%.
As for the reason for "increasing revenue without increasing profits", Jiang Li, secretary of the board of directors of CATL, said at the performance briefing that due to the large increase in the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the price transmission of customers is relatively cautious, and the sales volume in the first quarter is due to seasonal factors. The quarter-on-quarter decline resulted in a certain impact on the first-quarter results.
Guosheng Securities analyst Wang Lei believes that the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel upstream of the industrial chain has led to a rapid rise in battery costs, and there is a certain lag in downward price transmission.
The above factors are the important driving force behind the pressure on the gross profit margin of CATL in the first quarter and the decline in profits from the previous quarter.
As a leading enterprise in the power battery industry, the Ningde era, known as the "King of Ning", has a market value of over one trillion yuan.
According to the statistics of market research institution SNE Research, in the first quarter of 2022, its share in the global power battery field will be as high as 35%, ranking first, surpassing the sum of the second place LG and the third place BYD.
In fact, the power battery company that "increases revenue without increasing profits" is not "Ning Wang".
In the first quarter of 2022, Xinwangda's revenue was 10.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.11%; its net profit was 94.9232 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.13%.
Yiwei Lithium's revenue was 6.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.69%; its net profit was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.43%.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s revenue was 3.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.14%, and its net profit was 32.2037 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79%.
A number of battery manufacturers said at the first-quarter performance briefing that they have paid attention to the problems caused by the price increase of upstream raw materials, and will take corresponding countermeasures to reduce the corresponding impact in the future.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech stated that due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the gross profit margin in the first quarter decreased, and the annual profit will still be affected by the fluctuation of material prices.
Yiwei Lithium Energy said that the company is actively deploying cathode materials, anode materials, diaphragms, electrolytes, and upstream resources such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium to ensure the stability of the company's supply chain and reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations on product costs.
Downstream: car prices are still under pressure
Starting from 2022, the price of new energy vehicles has undergone several rounds of price increases. It has become a common phenomenon for cheap ones to rise by several thousand and expensive ones to rise by tens of thousands.
In a week in mid-March, a certain model of Tesla has experienced a "three consecutive rises", with three superimposed increases of nearly 30,000 yuan.
Some people in the industry have pointed the finger at power battery manufacturers for the price increase of new energy vehicles.
The CEOs of many new energy car companies, including Xiaopeng and Ideal, have publicly stated that the price increase of power batteries has been "beyond imagination", and the increase in battery costs in the second quarter is outrageous.
From the perspective of financial reports, the price increase directly transmitted to consumers has not caused a significant increase in the profits of car companies.
Taking BYD, which has fully transformed its new energy vehicle manufacturing industry, as an example, in the first quarter, BYD achieved a cumulative sales volume of 286,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 423.0%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240.60%. The net profit did not grow in line with sales.
And the gross profit margin was 12.40%, which was 12.59% lower than the same period last year, hitting a new low in the past five quarters.
Data map: Photo courtesy of BYD Han EV off the assembly line
Previously, BYD has raised the price of its new energy models, ranging from 3,000-6,000 yuan.
However, data show that in the first quarter, its average net profit per bicycle was only about 2,400 yuan.
Whoever gets the "lithium mine" gets the "industry chain"?
Some people in the industry believe that lithium ore is equivalent to the "petroleum" of the new energy era, and is the life source of the entire new energy industry. By grasping the source, it is easier to check and balance the entire industrial chain.
The first-quarter financial reports of many companies show that in the entire new energy vehicle industry chain, downstream consumers and car companies have paid more costs, and midstream power battery companies “increase revenue but not profit”, only upstream lithium mines. Enterprises have truly achieved "lay down to win".
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the increase in upstream raw material prices has been separated from the important factor of supply and demand.
If it cannot be effectively contained, it will have an impact on the development of new energy vehicles.
In order to avoid this impact, power battery manufacturers in the middle reaches of the industrial chain are also actively looking for countermeasures.
On April 21, Ningde Times announced that its holding subsidiary Yichun Times had successfully bid for the Yichun Lithium Mine prospecting right.
Previously, CATL has successively obtained equity interests in overseas lithium mines through shareholding and other means.
In addition to the Ningde era, many power battery companies including Xinwangda, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. have also announced that they may lock in the supply rights of some domestic or overseas lithium mines by means of shareholding or signing contracts to offset the fluctuation of upstream raw material prices. Influence.
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