In the first quarter of this year, the investment in the secondary industry increased by 16.1% year-on-year, significantly faster than the 6.8% growth rate of the primary industry investment, and also faster than the 6.4% growth rate of the tertiary industry investment.

However, in contrast to the high growth rate of investment in the secondary industry, the output of steel and cement, which has long been closely related to investment in the secondary industry, declined year-on-year.

  The growth rate of steel and cement production "doesn't match" the growth rate of investment in secondary production has aroused a lot of attention.

For example, some people question China's economic development because of the decline in steel and cement production, and even sing about it.

In fact, behind the data mismatch, it just reflects the profound changes in China's economic structure.

  In the past, China's industrial investment was mainly concentrated in the heavy chemical industry, which had a large demand for bulk raw materials such as steel and cement. When the growth rate of secondary production investment accelerated, the output growth rate of steel, cement and other products would also accelerate, and vice versa.

Entering the stage of high-quality development, the driving force of China's economic growth has changed compared with the previous high-speed growth stage, and the economic structure has been significantly optimized.

Judging from the data of the first quarter, in industrial production, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth, and their supporting role for the industry was strengthened; in industrial investment, investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth.

However, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing with higher "new content" has a relatively weak driving effect on bulk raw materials such as steel and cement, and the growth rate of investment is not synchronized with the growth rate of steel, cement and other products. , it is not difficult to understand.

  It should be noted that, as China's economic growth shifts from high-speed to medium-high-speed, from extensive growth based on scale and speed to intensive growth based on quality and efficiency, and from factor investment-driven to innovation-driven, the correlation between many economic indicators will also accompany the economy. New situations, new trends, and new characteristics of development have changed.

In this context, if we continue to use traditional concepts to view and analyze problems, and continue to use the logic of the high-speed growth stage to interpret economic indicators and economic data, it is tantamount to "seeking a sword in a boat".

  For example, changes in physical quantities and financial indicators such as electricity consumption, railway freight volume, and medium- and long-term bank loans are closely related to economic trends, and were often regarded as important indicators of economic trends in the past.

However, with the optimization and upgrading of my country's economic structure, the demand for electricity consumption brought about by the growth of industry and service industries has changed, and the proportion of railway freight volume in the total logistics volume of the whole society has also quietly changed. These indicators are closely related to the operation of the overall economy. The relationship between the situations will also gradually change.

Taking electricity consumption as an example, in the first quarter of this year, the electricity consumption of secondary production increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which was 4.4 percentage points lower than the two-year average growth rate in the same period in 2021. The two-year average growth rate for the same period in 2020 and 2021 is 0.3 percentage points lower.

Behind the mismatch between the growth rate of electricity consumption and industrial added value on scale, the main reason is that the total electricity consumption of the four high-energy-load industries only increased by 0.5% year-on-year, which also reflects the optimization of economic structure and energy conservation and emission reduction to a certain extent. effect.

Therefore, if you only focus on the changes of individual indicators to make judgments and draw conclusions, you may only draw biased or even wrong conclusions.

  It can be seen that only by deeply clarifying the connotation of various economic indicators, exploring the correlation and laws between various economic variables, placing changes in economic indicators in the overall situation of the world economy and China's economy, and analyzing and making more comprehensive, scientific and rational analysis and judgment, can we truly Grasp the inherent characteristics of fluctuations in economic indicators, and draw scientific and accurate conclusions about the high-quality development of China's economy.

(Source: Economic Daily)