Growth highlights of the oil and chemical industry

  A few days ago, the China Futures Association released the latest statistics. From January to April, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market exceeded 2,002.79 million lots, and the cumulative trading volume exceeded 169 trillion yuan, down 19.54% and 10.59% year-on-year respectively.

Relevant experts said that the decline in transactions of the main varieties of active commodities, the slow recovery of stock index futures transactions, the good growth in options but a low proportion, and the decline in April transactions have all led to a weak recovery in the transaction volume since the beginning of this year.

At the same time, the active trading of commodity options, treasury bond futures, oil and chemical futures in the first four months has become the four major highlights.

  In the first four months of this year, among the most active futures varieties, PTA, methanol, steel, soybean meal, fuel oil, rapeseed meal, silver, soybean palm oil, PVC, glass soda ash, CSI 300, CSI 500, nickel , copper, aluminum, natural rubber, crude oil and gold futures accounted for the top 20 in terms of transaction volume and turnover, but most of the products experienced a decline in transaction volume in the first 4 months.

In the first four months of this year, the futures products with the largest decline in transaction scale mainly include coal coke three varieties, eggs, manganese silicon, CSI 300 stock index, silver, copper, urea, glass, apple, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, nickel , natural rubber, pulp, steel, ferrosilicon and staple fiber futures, the quarterly transaction volume and turnover of these varieties ranked among the top 20, which became the main factor leading to the continued decline in the overall market transaction scale.

  In terms of financial futures, the trading volume and turnover of the financial futures sector in the first four months of this year decreased by 4.9% year-on-year and increased by 25.7% respectively.

The trading volume and turnover of the CSI 300 stock index futures shrank from January to April, down 19% and 33% respectively; the trading volume and turnover of the CSI 500 stock index futures increased slightly by 2% and 3% respectively, and the SSE 50 stock index futures increased respectively 12% and down 9%.

  Wang Jun, Dean of the Founder's Medium-Term Futures Research Institute, believes that from the fourth quarter of 2021, the trading volume and turnover of the futures market will experience a year-on-year growth slowdown or even a year-on-year decline, reflecting the expectation of a weak global economic recovery. , the futures options market activity has declined.

  It is worth noting that options, oils, chemicals, and treasury bond futures have become bright spots for futures market growth.

Since the beginning of this year, the transaction of commodity options in my country has developed well, and the market share has further increased rapidly.

From January to April 2022, the transaction volume reached more than 97.35 million lots, a year-on-year increase of 69%; the transaction volume was 106.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%.

At the same time, the trading volume of the treasury bond futures market has grown significantly, with the largest increase in the trading volume and turnover of the 2-year treasury bond futures, up 90% and 91% respectively; the trading volume and turnover of the five-year treasury bond futures increased by 64% and 68% respectively; The trading volume and turnover of 10-year treasury bond futures increased by 26% and 30% respectively, reflecting the increasing attention and active participation of domestic financial institutions, investment institutions and other institutional investors in CFFEX treasury bond futures.

In addition, the oil and oil sector in the futures market has sprung up, with the trading volume and turnover increasing by 23% and 21% year-on-year, respectively, and the chemical sector's trading volume and turnover increasing by 29% and 4% respectively.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, experts believe that in the second quarter, the United States has started a cycle of major interest rate hikes, the global epidemic is severe, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to ups and downs in commodities such as energy, metal and chemicals.

At the same time, since the end of April, a series of policies to stabilize the economy and the capital market have been introduced intensively in my country. The improvement of the epidemic situation has promoted the gradual recovery of the economy. my country's real enterprises and financial institutions have stepped up risk management and actively participated in hedging transactions to hedge global systemic Economic and financial risks are expected to gradually increase the trading volume of the futures market.

  Zhu Huichun

Zhu Huichun