(Economic Observation) When will real estate pick up in 18 cities in China in 9 days to "stabilize the property market"?
China News Service, Beijing, May 9 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Since May, the introduction of real estate rescue policies in many places in China has accelerated, and more than 10 cities have rarely introduced new policies related to house purchases during the "May Day" holiday.
When will the real estate market end its dip?
Several media reports said that Suzhou has lifted the restrictions on the sale of second-hand houses since May 9. If a family has a new-born population (two children and above) who needs to replace the house, the sale of the existing house will not be restricted by the transfer year.
At the same time, the local government adjusted the purchase conditions of non-resident households in the city to pay social security for 6 consecutive months.
On the same day, Yangzhou also adjusted housing purchase restrictions and sales restrictions for college and above talents and families with two children or more.
According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, in the first 9 days of May, 18 cities have issued more than 20 policies related to "stabilizing the property market".
Among them, the new policies related to real estate in Wuxi, Lianyungang, Yueyang, Jiaxing and other places were released during the "May 1st" holiday.
According to statistics from the CRRC Research Center, in April, the property market bailout policy was strengthened, and 39 provinces and cities issued 45 related relaxation policies.
Among them, 12 cities including Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi have relaxed purchase restrictions; 6 cities including Lanzhou, Huaibei, and Yichang have relaxed loan restrictions and lowered down payment ratios, etc.; 4 cities including Quzhou, Suzhou, and Yichang have relaxed sales restrictions, and 19 cities including Tianjin, Suzhou, and Kunming Provident fund loans are relaxed; 4 cities including Nanning, Changsha and Shenyang have lowered real estate transaction taxes; 6 cities including Wuxi, Nantong and Yichang have implemented housing subsidies.
Relief policies on the enterprise side were introduced simultaneously.
In April, Nanjing and Changde relaxed the supervision of pre-sale funds; Lanzhou and Changde loosened the rules for land auctions.
On May 9, Yangzhou issued a new land transfer policy, extending the time for paying land transfer fees.
Despite the frequent supportive policies, judging from the recent property market transaction data, the real estate market has yet to show a clear recovery trend.
Judging from the "May 1st" transaction record data monitored by CRIC, the 50 key monitored cities have accumulated a total transaction volume of 447,500 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%.
The average daily trading volume during the "May Day" holiday in 2022 will drop by 75% compared with the daily average in April 2022, and the overall market will continue to decline.
The monitoring data of the Middle Finger Research Institute reflects a similar trend.
During the "May Day" holiday in 2022, the sales volume of commercial housing in 13 typical cities will be 308,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 65.9%.
Among them, the transaction volume of second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Suzhou, and Wenzhou all fell by more than 50% year-on-year.
Market transactions are sluggish, reflecting the lack of confidence in home buyers.
Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, likened it to the market's "epidemic mentality", because the uncertainty of the new crown epidemic has impacted market demand and extended the transaction cycle.
But she believes that the epidemic will eventually improve, and the market recovery process will speed up after the epidemic dissipates.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that recently, the support policies on the supply side and demand side of the real estate industry have been stronger and more frequent, and policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts to bail out small, medium and micro enterprises have also been positive for the property market. effect.
These policies themselves have a time lag in their effectiveness, and the combined effect will be large.
Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Crane Research Center, pointed out that under multiple positive policies, the overall supply of the property market during the "May 1st" period has ushered in a concentrated volume, especially in core first- and second-tier cities and strong third-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, Foshan, etc. The rhythm of real estate companies' promotion has accelerated significantly.
From the overall transaction point of view, there are also signs of a slight recovery. The "May Day" transaction has a narrowing trend compared with April.
The Crane Research Center predicts that if the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled from May to June, the overall property market supply and demand will continue to recover steadily.
On the one hand, May and June are critical periods for real estate companies to focus on sprinting their semi-annual performance. Enterprises' enthusiasm for proposals and marketing continues to rise, and the market supply scale is expected to remain at a high level.
On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of favorable policies in the early stage, transactions in various regions are expected to generally recover. However, the differentiation between cities will continue to intensify, and the first to recover will still be the core first- and second-tier cities with relatively abundant purchasing power.
(Finish)