Zhongxin Finance, May 8 (Reporter Li Jinlei) As of May 6, according to statistics from Zhongxin Finance, in addition to Jilin, 30 provinces have released 2021 population data.
What changes have taken place in the population map of each province?
Negative growth of resident population in many provinces
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that by the end of 2021, the national population will be 1,412.6 million, an increase of only 480,000 from the end of the previous year.
From a local level, the resident population of many provinces has experienced negative growth.
Judging from the provinces that have disclosed population changes, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangxi and other places have decreased in permanent population.
China-Singapore Finance and Economics Cartography
Among them, the total resident population of Heilongjiang by the end of 2021 was 31.25 million, a decrease of 460,000 compared with the previous year; Hebei decreased by 160,000, Gansu decreased by 110,000, Inner Mongolia decreased by 28,300, Beijing decreased by 4,000, and Guizhou decreased by 60,000. Shaanxi decreased by 10,000, Shanxi decreased by 100,200, and Jiangxi decreased by 14,600.
Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics analysis pointed out that the decline of the province's total population is mainly affected by two factors: First, the decline in the number of births.
In 2021, the province's birth population will be 377,000, a decrease of 50,400 from 427,400 in 2020. The birth population will fall below 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s.
The decline in the number of births was mainly due to factors such as the delayed marriage and childbearing age, the weakening of the "two-child policy", and the lack of the "three-child policy". Second, the scale of net population outflow continued to expand.
Natural negative population growth in 10 provinces
In terms of natural population growth rate, at least 10 provinces have had negative natural population growth rates, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei and Shanxi.
The natural population growth rate refers to the ratio of the natural population increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) to the average number of people (or the number of people in the period) during a certain period (usually one year), expressed in thousandths.
Natural population growth rate = population birth rate - population death rate.
The natural growth rate of several provinces turned negative for the first time in many years.
Among them, the natural population growth rate of Jiangsu is -1.12‰, which is the first time that Jiangsu's annual natural population growth rate has turned negative since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
From a national perspective, the natural population growth rate in 2021 will be 0.34 per thousand, down 1.11 thousand points from 2020.
According to the analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, the continuous slowdown in population growth is due to the continuous decrease in the number of births, which is mainly affected by two factors.
First, the number of women of childbearing age continued to decrease.
In 2021, there will be about 5 million fewer women of childbearing age between the ages of 15 and 49 than in 2020, and about 3 million fewer women of childbearing age between the ages of 21 and 35.
Second, fertility levels continue to decline.
Affected by the change in fertility concept and the delay in the age of first marriage and first childbearing (about 2 years in 10 years), the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age will continue to decline in 2021.
Data map.
Photo by China News Service reporter Li Jinlei
Northeast China is a "depression" for natural population growth rate
The natural population growth rate of Heilongjiang and Liaoning is relatively low. The birth rate of Heilongjiang is 3.59‰, the death rate is 8.70‰, and the natural population growth rate is -5.11‰.
Liaoning had a birth population of 200,000, a birth rate of 4.71‰; a death population of 377,000, a death rate of 8.89‰; the natural population growth rate was -4.18‰.
Why is the natural population growth rate in the Northeast so low?
Feng Wenmeng, a researcher and director of the Research Office of the Institute of Public Administration and Human Resources of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that births and deaths will affect the natural growth rate of the population.
The three northeastern provinces have relatively low birth rates and relatively high mortality rates.
Feng Wenmeng pointed out that the relatively low birth rate is due to the fact that among the three northeastern provinces, the population of young people is relatively small. This is mainly due to the serious population outflow in the Northeast region in recent years. Local climate factors, economic growth and employment in recent years have led to a large number of young people. The outflow of people and the decline of the population during the marriage and childbearing period naturally lead to a decrease in fertility.
The higher mortality rate is because the outflow of young people also leads to a relatively higher degree of aging in the Northeast region, and the number of elderly people is relatively large, which also leads to a relatively increase in the number of deaths.
Therefore, the decline in the birth rate and the increase in the death rate will lead to a relatively low natural population growth rate.
According to the seventh national census data, the population of Northeast China has decreased by 11.01 million in 10 years. Among them, Heilongjiang has decreased by more than 6.46 million, which is the province with the largest population loss.
The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in Liaoning is 25.72%, the highest in the country.
Guangdong has the largest population of births
In terms of birth population, Guangdong, the most populous province in China, occupies the first position.
Data show that by the end of 2021, Guangdong has a resident population of 126.84 million, an increase of 600,000 from the end of the previous year.
The annual birth population was 1,183,100, with a birth rate of 9.35‰; the death population was 611,200, with a mortality rate of 4.83‰; the natural increase population was 571,900, with a natural growth rate of 4.52‰.
Guangdong is also the only region with more than one million births throughout the year.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national birth population will be 10.62 million in 2021. Based on this calculation, Guangdong's birth population will account for 11% of the national birth population.
As another province with a population of over 100 million, Shandong will have 750,400 births in 2021.
The annual birth population of Henan is 793,000.
Why is Guangdong so prolific?
Feng Wenmeng believes that Guangdong has been a major population inflow area since the reform and opening up, and a large number of young floating population have flowed to Guangdong. Therefore, from the current age structure, Guangdong is a relatively young province. The age of marriage and childbearing, so the number of children born is also relatively high.
According to the seventh national census data, Guangdong has increased its population by more than 21.7 million people in the past 10 years, the largest in the country.
Data map.
Photo by Huang Lingyi
Zhejiang has the largest net increase in population
Judging from the increase in the resident population, it is not Guangdong, which has the largest population of births, that occupies the first place, but Zhejiang.
The data shows that by the end of 2021, the permanent resident population of Zhejiang Province will be 65.4 million, an increase of 720,000, which exceeds the increase of 600,000 in Guangdong.
Specifically, the birth population of Zhejiang in 2021 will be 449,000, the death population will be 384,000, and the natural increase will be only 65,000.
Therefore, the growth of Zhejiang's population mainly benefits from population inflow.
Zhejiang has also fought hard to "snatch people" over the years.
In addition to the urban area of Hangzhou, the restrictions on the settlement of graduates with a college degree or above have been fully lifted, and the requirements for settlement in Hangzhou are bachelor degree or above.
Feng Wenmeng analyzed that for a long time, Zhejiang's private economy has been very dynamic, and the platform economy has also developed rapidly in recent years. The economic development has always been full of vitality, generating a large number of employment opportunities and attracting talent inflows.
Moreover, Zhejiang has made great efforts in institutional reforms including household registration in recent years, with a high level of public services and a relatively balanced regional development. It has become the first demonstration area for common prosperity, and its attractiveness to the population has become increasingly stronger.
(Finish)