India is now also becoming cautious: the government of the world's second-largest wheat producer is debating whether grain exports should be restricted.

At the same time, as part of an aid program, the Indians are replacing the promised five kilograms of wheat per month for hundreds of millions of poor people with rice as a precaution.

Behind both is the concern that the wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine could fail on the world market.

Under normal circumstances, these supply around a third of the global wheat requirement.

India, traditionally not a leading wheat exporter, is now said to step in.

Piyush Goyal, Minister of Trade and Food, initially said his country would export 15 million tons of wheat this fiscal year (March 31) - more than double last year.

Christopher Hein

Business correspondent for South Asia/Pacific based in Singapore.

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Jessica von Blazekovic

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Now, however, there are big question marks behind this hope.

The growing uncertainties were enough to have a noticeable impact on the markets: After the wheat price had recently fallen slightly from a high level, it rose again on Thursday and is currently at 400 euros per ton.

A year ago, this amount cost around half.

On Wednesday, India's State Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey ruled out any restrictions on wheat exports.

The government even supports exports so that farmers' incomes remain secure.

In this quarter alone, private trading companies would deliver four million tons of wheat, mainly to Egypt, Turkey and the EU.

Only hours later, however, the Bloomberg news agency reported that government circles were discussing an export ban.

The back and forth reminds traders on the world market of the palm oil debate in Indonesia.

The world market leader's export ban had caused a great deal of excitement - the prices for substitute oils had immediately risen rapidly.

List of countries with export embargoes is growing

The tug-of-war over the wheat harvest in India is now being influenced not only by the attack on Ukraine, but also by the consequences of climate change: After five record harvests in a row, the heat wave in the north of the subcontinent is currently weighing on expectations.

New Delhi is currently still very optimistic: The official estimate for this harvest season (until the end of June) is still 105 million tons of wheat, after 111 million tons last year.

However, some farmers fear their harvest could be halved.

This means that India would no longer be a supplier country that could at least partially offset Ukrainian wheat exports.

An Indian export embargo would therefore be another severe blow to the already strained world food market - especially since India is far from the only country that is considering such a step or has already taken it.

Russia initially suspended exports of wheat, barley, maize and rye until the end of June, and Serbia and Moldova also stopped exporting these products.

Hungary has recently had all grain exports checked individually, while Turkey is holding back butter, meat, corn and cooking oils.

Argentina, the world's largest soybean exporter, briefly suspended exports in mid-March before raising the export tax to 33 percent.

WTO monitors development

According to the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, the number of countries that have imposed export restrictions on food has risen from three to 23 since Russia began invading Ukraine in mid-February.

The affected exports account for 17 percent of the calories traded worldwide.

Most commonly, wheat, palm oil, corn, sunflower oil and soybeans would be withheld.

In addition to the goal of national food security, the protectionist measures also aim to appease the population in the face of rising food prices.

Organizations, politicians and researchers around the world are watching this development with great concern.

The G-7 agriculture ministers recently called for keeping agricultural markets open.

"If everyone only thinks of themselves in this situation, it will only exacerbate the crisis and cause prices to go through the roof," said German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens).

The Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies in Halle warns "of calls for planned economic transformations, isolation or even regional autarky".

All of this would be at the expense of starving people in the Global South.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) strikes a similar note, which, when asked by the FAZ, informed the FAZ that it was monitoring the situation closely - in the hope