China News Service, May 6 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) The overnight performance of U.S. stocks surprised the market, not only completely reversing Wednesday's sharp rise, but also the largest drop and volatility since the 2020 epidemic.

Among them, the S&P 500 fell by 3.57%, and the Nasdaq fell by nearly 5%.

　　In this regard, CICC released a research report on the 6th, saying that the reason for the renewed turmoil in the U.S. stock market may still be mainly due to the digestion of tightening concerns and the squeeze of superimposed inflation and growth pressure.

　　Due to the large volatility of US stocks overnight and the complete reversal of the trend after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (Federal Reserve interest rate meeting), and at the same time there were no particularly unexpected events, the market has different opinions on the reasons behind the sharp drop, including geopolitical risks and so on.

　　CICC believes that one of the most direct and simple explanations is that the market performance after the FOMC meeting was too optimistic and "wrong rise". After all, the main assets basically completely retreated after 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell said that he did not actively consider the performance after the 75bp rate hike.

This can also be reflected in the interest rate hike expectations included in the futures market. After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, this expectation fell significantly for a time. For example, the expectation of a 75bp hike in June or even a 50bp hike in September has been greatly reduced, but the latest The data show that this probability has rebounded, making the end of the year expected to return to around 300bp.

　　CICC further pointed out that in addition, the situation in Russia and Ukraine revolves around the escalation of the competition for the Mariupol steel plant, the EU's decision to impose sanctions on Russia's oil embargo in batches and other geo-risks, as well as some technology stocks at the micro level, especially electricity. Retail-related stocks missed expectations and dragged down the entire sector, which may also explain some of the performance and emotional pressure, but may not feel dominant.

　　CICC stressed that in any case, it is difficult to really distinguish how much of the turmoil in a day is dominated by sentiment and trading factors, and how much is really reflecting concerns about tightening or geo-risk.

But at least one thing is certain, that is, the game of market expectations is very intense. At present, the reaction after the FOMC meeting is too optimistic, but it may also be too panicky yesterday, so it may take a few days of digestion and precipitation. Maybe the situation can be improved. For clarity, the market may remain volatile until then.

　　Looking ahead to the prospects of U.S. stocks, CICC believes that the sharp swings in U.S. stock market expectations in the past two days also show that the market is still repeatedly tangled between worrying about the Fed’s actual acceleration of tightening and faster tightening than expected, and the decision to this The balance is in the judgment of inflation and growth prospects.

In fact, this is also the main situation facing the global market since April. In the context of inflationary pressures that have not yet improved significantly, tightening and growth pressures are constantly being squeezed, old worries remain unresolved, and new ones are added.

　　CICC pointed out that looking forward, whether the market can find a delicate room for maneuvering like walking a tightrope, and whether the "impossible triangle" of tightening, inflation and growth can turn around in May, for example, when the tightening pressure is not so great that it destroys the growth prospects. Before, see the dawn of inflation falling, which requires the cooperation of multiple factors.

　　CICC said that if the situation analyzed above can be gradually realized relatively smoothly, it is still possible to see some pressures eased first, thereby giving the U.S. stock market some breathing and room to move, otherwise the market may still face volatility and pressure. .

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