China's property market did not see a "little spring" in April

(Economic Watch) China's property market did not see a "little spring" in April

　　China News Service, Beijing, May 6 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Although the "stabilizing property market" policies in various places are released at an average frequency of more than two per day, but affected by repeated epidemics and lack of market confidence, the property market in many places in China is still in April. In the in-depth adjustment, "Xiao Yangchun" was absent.

House price "sideways" transaction is weak

　　According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, in April, the price of new residential buildings in China's 100 cities increased by only 0.02% month-on-month.

Cumulatively from January to April, the price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities rose by 0.08%, 0.91 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the cumulative increase was the lowest in the same period in the past five years.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of new houses in various cities has increased slightly.

According to the data from the China Index Research Institute, from January to April, among the 100 cities, only Guangzhou had a cumulative increase of more than 1% in new houses, with a cumulative increase of 1.24% in house prices.

　　In terms of transaction volume, according to statistics from several institutions, in April, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand houses in key cities fell by more than 40% year-on-year.

Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that in April 2022, the contracted area of ​​commercial housing in key 62 cities across the country decreased by 44% year-on-year, a further 5 percentage points lower than that in March.

Second-hand housing transactions in Shell 50 cities fell by about 50% year-on-year.

　　Insufficient transaction activity in key areas.

According to the statistics of the Crier Research Center, in April, the property market in the Yangtze River Delta was almost completely "turned off". The transactions in Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing and other markets weakened, and northern Jiangsu was under overall pressure.

The wait-and-see mood in northern markets such as Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, and Northeast China is still strong.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area cities, such as Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, and Zhuhai, continue to dormant, and the project depreciation is generally maintained at around 30%; Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing and other markets are weak, and regional differentiation such as Xi'an and Zhengzhou intensifies.

　　As the front end of the property market, the transaction scale of the land market also continued to remain low.

According to the statistics of CRIC Research Center, in April, the total transactional construction area of ​​operating land in 300 cities nationwide was 65.37 million square meters (as of April 27), down nearly 60% year-on-year and still at a historical low; the total transaction value of land in 300 cities It increased to 275.2 billion yuan (RMB), an increase of 36% month-on-month, but still a year-on-year decrease of 53%.

Over 70 cities take action to "stabilize the property market"

　　In fact, since the beginning of this year, the real estate business environment has continued to improve, and many central ministries and commissions have continued to release positive policy signals.

　　The Shell Research Institute pointed out that the housing credit environment in key cities was further relaxed in April, with interest rates hitting a four-year low.

At present, the mainstream first-home loan interest rates in 103 cities are all below 6%.

At the same time, local real estate control policies have been gradually relaxed, and restrictive measures such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions have been loosened to varying degrees.

　　According to statistics from the agency, since this year, more than 70 cities in China have relaxed relevant property market policies.

Cities with relaxed real estate policies are transmitted from third-tier cities to second-tier provincial capital cities, including Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuhu and other strong second- and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region.

　　According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in April, various regions issued policies to “stabilize the property market” more than 75 times, which means that on average, more than two relevant supportive policies were introduced every day.

Why did "Xiaoyangchun" miss the appointment?

　　The Shell Research Institute believes that the fundamental reason for the ineffectiveness of the property market regulation is that market expectations have not been effectively restored.

The impact of the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts have brought more uncertainty to domestic economic growth. The general environment is sluggish, the pressure on employment has increased significantly, the expected income of residents has decreased, and the willingness to borrow money to buy houses is not strong.

　　In addition, the overall financing scale of large-scale housing enterprises remained at a low level from January to April, and the liquidity pressure of most housing enterprises continued.

According to Shell statistics, affected by the sharp decline in financing scale, in April 2022, the net debt of domestic and overseas bonds of real estate companies will still be 39.6 billion yuan.

　　Analysts believe that this has also led to homebuyers worrying about the quality of delivery of new homes, delayed delivery, and even unfinished business, and they are still cautious about buying new homes.

The slow sale of new houses makes it difficult for real estate companies to recover their enthusiasm for acquiring land, and it is difficult for the land market to heat up, which ultimately leads to a lack of overall market confidence and aggravated wait-and-see sentiment.

　　It is expected in the industry that there is still room for further reductions in mortgage interest rates in the future, and the speed of clearing the risks of housing enterprises will also be accelerated.

After the epidemic is over, the flow of population between cities will resume, and the needs of new citizens to settle down, their children's needs for education, and the needs of old citizens for housing improvement will be released in compensation, which determines the general trend of market restoration in the future.

However, the strength and time of market recovery are still affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic.

(Finish)