Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) makes no secret of the fact that the forthcoming oil embargo against Russia is still giving him stomach ache.

It is true that Germany has now greatly reduced its dependence on Russian oil.

So it is hardly possible to blackmail oil anymore.

However, the question of how a noticeable increase in the price of oil can be prevented after the embargo has been imposed is still unanswered.

It is crucial, because otherwise Russian President Vladimir Putin can sell the oil at higher prices elsewhere and thus top up his already well-stocked "war chest".

He can also use oil as a geopolitical tool against poorer countries such as Indonesia, Bangladesh or India.

Henrik Kafsack

Business correspondent in Brussels.

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"What if they then say: Europe and the USA have driven up prices and exacerbated our poverty - and then Putin comes and says: I'll help you out, with a discount.

I just want political solidarity," Habeck warned on Monday on the sidelines of a meeting of EU energy ministers.

For this reason, the embargo can only be one step in an overall strategy.

The EU Commission wanted to decide on Tuesday evening the embargo, which is expected to be phased in oil type by oil type until the end of the year.

The states should give their approval by the end of the week if possible.

Rising energy prices

The fact that the Commission waited a long time with the embargo proposal is also due to the fact that – like the US government – ​​it fears, beyond all geopolitical consequences, that a further increase in energy prices will meet with resistance, not least in the case of petrol and diesel, from the local population bump.

After all, energy prices have risen sharply over the past six months, regardless of the war in Ukraine.

The Commission has therefore been looking for ways to prevent the oil price on the world markets from rising too much for weeks.

The hope that the oil cartel OPEC or individual oil producers could increase production in order to fill the "gap" created by the embargo has not been fulfilled, at least so far.

The Europeans are now working together with the Americans through various channels to forge a kind of global purchasing cartel.

The G7, which Germany currently holds the presidency, is also involved.

The 40 states that support EU and US sanctions against Russia are to join such a price cartel.

However, that alone would not be enough to push through noticeable price reductions on the world market.

Large buyers like India, which has so far not opposed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, would also have to take part.

The topic is likely to have been on the agenda during the recent visit by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India and at the Indo-German intergovernmental consultations.

secondary sanctions?

Even if India, Pakistan and Turkey do not join a global purchasing cartel, they should at least not circumvent the sanctions.

The threat of secondary sanctions, which the United States would then have to impose, could play a role, say diplomats.

That, in turn, would be hard to imagine in the case of Turkey, a NATO partner, and ultimately probably counterproductive.

Meanwhile, no one in Brussels seriously expects the EU or the US to be able to successfully influence China.

The EU is still hoping that the negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran can still be successfully concluded.

Then Iran could reduce the price pressure on the international markets with its oil.

According to diplomats, the talks are actually on the right track.

But there are crucial hurdles to an agreement.

Iran is demanding that the United States remove the Revolutionary Guards from the terrorist list.

Russia is involved in the negotiations, but ultimately cannot block an agreement.