“They are destroying the world domination of the dollar”: the head of the State Duma Committee on the financial market - about US sanctions and the situation in the Russian economy

— At the end of April, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate from 17% to 14% per annum.

At the same time, the Central Bank did not rule out the possibility of a further decline in the indicator.

How do you think the rate might change in 2022?

- Another rate cut will be possible if the general economic situation in the country favors it.

Everything will depend on whether we can cope with inflation and bring it to reasonable levels.

In general, the government and the Central Bank worked very effectively in the face of the unprecedented and most severe Western sanctions against our country.

Taking into account the current actions of the Central Bank, it is quite possible that by the end of this year the key rate will drop below 10% per annum.

— How can the reduction of the key rate affect the mortgage market?

Should we expect the authorities to continue to revise the terms of the program of preferential housing loans?

- The government is already adjusting preferential mortgages to the new realities.

Since May 1, the rate on preferential loans has dropped from 12 to 9% per annum.

At the same time, it is possible that by the end of 2022 we will again see it at the level of 7%.

Average market rates on consumer loans in the country will also decrease.

The current situation favors this.

- Now in Russia the rates on deposits have also begun to decline.

Nevertheless, the profitability of bank deposits is still relatively high, which is of interest to many Russians.

Is it planned under these conditions to raise the deposit insurance limit from the current 1.4 million rubles?

- The fact is that the current limit covers more than 90% of the deposits of Russians.

Therefore, it is unlikely that the maximum amount of compensation for individuals will be increased.

Meanwhile, in the near future there will be proposals to expand the list of legal entities falling under the insurance system.

These are, for example, charitable, trade union, religious and other organizations.

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- According to various estimates, this year the volume of Russia's GDP may decrease by 8-10% due to the sanctions imposed by the West.

How do you assess the current situation in the economy?

When can we adapt to new realities?

— It is worth noting that the government and the Central Bank keep the situation under control.

At the same time, our Eastern partners represented by China, India and many other countries are ready and will continue to cooperate with us.

The economy should largely adapt by the end of this year.

I know that Russian business today is very intensively reorganizing itself to work with other foreign partners.

It is possible that after new business ties are created, logistics chains are redirected, the system of financial flows and mutual settlements is established, we will build a more efficient and optimal economic model than before the sanctions.   

- Over the past two months, more than 400 foreign companies have left the Russian market, and the outflow of Western corporations continues.

How can the infrastructure left behind by such companies be used?

Will foreign business be able to come back in the future?

— We know that dozens of companies have already begun to gradually return to Russia.

Initially, these organizations announced they were leaving our market and suspended their work, and now they are resuming it or simply announcing plans to restore activity.

The fact is that business began to find various schemes and ways to stay in Russia and not fall under sanctions.

At the same time, a draft law is currently under consideration in the State Duma, according to which it will be possible to introduce external management for companies leaving Russia.

That is, it is planned to create a legal basis for all these enterprises to continue working.

In case of problems with the supply of components, we have already passed laws allowing parallel import and production of a number of parts in Russia.

Of course, there will be difficulties ahead and supply disruptions are possible.

However, in general, the economy can get a new impetus for import substitution and development on a new technological basis.

There is a possibility of technical and intellectual restructuring of the structure of the economy, which will begin to rely more on its internal potential.

- One of the main challenges for Russia was the blocking by the West of almost half of the Central Bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves.

However, Moscow is still fulfilling all its obligations.

How can such sanctions threaten Western countries themselves?

- As we can see, the United States behaves in a boorish way in economic matters, making sanctions decisions and blocking reserves.

Therefore, in the future, many countries will try to move away from dollar dependence in order not to put themselves at risk.

In fact, the United States is not even shooting itself in the foot, but in the head, and they themselves are destroying the world domination of the dollar, which brought them a lot of opportunities to solve, among other things, socio-economic problems in their country.

Apparently, Washington is now unable to objectively assess the consequences of its actions in the long term.

— How is the testing of the digital ruble progressing under the sanctions?

When is the electronic national currency planned to be put into circulation?

- A prototype of the digital ruble has been prepared, and now it is being tested.

More than ten banks should already participate in the program.

It is expected that testing will be completed by the end of the year.

After that, we will determine exactly how to launch the digital ruble in our and the international economic system.

The electronic national currency will circulate on the basis of distributed ledger technology (blockchain), and over time, more and more financial market participants will begin to use digital rubles.

At the same time, sanctions are likely to give a very serious impetus to the use of distributed ledger technology for mutual settlements between countries.

That is, the development of the digital ruble, digital yuan and other electronic currencies will contribute to further de-dollarization of the world economy.