(Economic Observation) Inventory of GDP in China in the first quarter: local economies face the pressure and face difficulties

  China News Service, Beijing, May 2 (Reporter Wang Enbo) In the first quarter, the GDP data of various parts of China have been released one after another, and a total of 23 provinces have "outperformed" the country in terms of growth rate.

Overall, the local economy has performed steadily, but the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.

  In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year.

At the local level, Xinjiang's GDP grew by 7% year-on-year in the first quarter, leading the country; Jiangxi's growth was 6.9%, ranking second; Hubei and Fujian both grew by 6.7%, tied for third.

The provinces with a growth rate of more than 6% include: Guizhou (6.6%), Shanxi (6.5%), Tibet (6.4%), Hunan (6%), and Hainan (6%).

  At the other end of the growth rate list, Jilin’s GDP fell by 7.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, making it the only province with negative growth.

Tianjin's economic operation continued to grow, but the year-on-year growth rate was only 0.1%.

It was followed by Liaoning, with a GDP growth of 2.7% year-on-year.

The economic GDP growth rates of Shanghai and Guangdong, two major economic cities, fell to 3.1% and 3.3% respectively.

Most of these provinces have been significantly affected by this round of epidemic rebound.

  From the perspective of economic aggregates, the pattern of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong occupying the top three continues.

In the first quarter, Guangdong's total GDP was about 2.85 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), and Jiangsu's was about 2.79 trillion yuan.

Shandong ranked third with a total GDP of about 1.99 trillion yuan in the first quarter, and the 2 trillion mark is within reach.

Nationwide, in the first quarter, a total of 11 provinces' GDP exceeded the trillion yuan mark.

  It is worth mentioning that since Guangdong has been more significantly affected by the epidemic this year, the gap in GDP between Guangdong and Jiangsu has narrowed, from more than 130 billion yuan in the same period last year to more than 60 billion yuan.

  From the perspective of core data such as GDP, most provinces have a stable start to the first quarter, but the pressure is emerging.

  Due to the impact of the sudden epidemic in March, Shanghai's economic operation in the first quarter was stable and then slowed down, especially in the consumer sector.

In the first two months of this year, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, but fell by 18.9% in March.

  The impact of the epidemic has also affected Guangdong, a major foreign trade province. In the first quarter, the province's total import and export of goods increased by only 0.6% year-on-year.

The analysis believes that the production efficiency during the Spring Festival was low before, and then Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places suffered from epidemics one after another, which dragged down the growth of Guangdong's foreign trade.

  Under pressure, local governments have risen to the challenge and opened the policy "toolbox".

Actively expanding effective investment is a "policy card" that has attracted much attention.

  As early as the beginning of the year, many provinces set investment growth targets higher than GDP growth for this year.

In the first quarter, local efforts made a good start to investment, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in more than 20 provinces reached double digits.

Among them, the investment in Inner Mongolia increased by 59.6% year-on-year, leading the country.

The Bureau of Statistics of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region said that infrastructure investment is ahead of schedule and plays a leading role in the economic development of the region.

  Increasing rescue support to stabilize market players is also an important measure for local governments to deal with downward pressure and accumulate economic growth momentum.

  With the service industry as the main driving force for economic growth, Hainan has introduced measures to further promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and proposed policy "gift packages" such as tax reduction and exemption, housing rent reduction, and increased credit financing support.

In response to the problems of tight cash flow and weak liquidity of small and medium-sized enterprises, Zhejiang, a large private economy province, actively implements a large-scale VAT refund policy, and prioritizes small and micro enterprises in the progress of tax refunds to directly provide cash flow to market players.

  Guo Yi, managing director and global partner of Boston Consulting Group, told a reporter from China News Agency that from the central to local governments, Chinese governments at all levels have given great support to market players, which is conducive to stabilizing economic fundamentals.

In the future, in the process of introducing support policies, the word "precision" should be emphasized more and the acupuncture points should be pinpointed.

At the same time, "the government can't just keep the government busy", and it can effectively leverage market forces through financial means.

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