China News Service, Shanghai, May 1 (Reporter Jiang Yu) "Decisive closure and control measures are the most effective way to stop the spread of the epidemic, which has a certain impact on current consumption, but we must take a long-term perspective. In the post-epidemic era, China's consumption recovery will be stronger," Li Jing, director of equity research at Fidelity International, told a reporter from China News Agency.

  Statistics show that in 2021, final consumption expenditure will contribute 65.4% to China's economic growth, driving GDP growth by 5.3 percentage points, making it the first driving force for economic growth.

In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 4.8%, reflecting the resilience of the economy. However, consumption data in March also reflected the impact of the repeated epidemics in Shanghai and other places. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the month fell by 3.5% year-on-year.

  Li Jing said: "Although the current consumption is under short-term pressure due to the control of the epidemic, after the epidemic, China's consumption is expected to generate more new demand, and the Chinese economy will generate more endogenous power. We are very concerned about the long-term resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy. Still full of confidence."

  Wang Dan, chief economist of Hang Seng China, said that the epidemic has recurred, and the strict control measures adopted in many places in China have had an impact on consumption, investment, logistics, etc., especially in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which are not only China's largest consumption areas, but also largest shipping location.

  Wang Dan believes that in March this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods saw the largest decline in two years. Some cities in China have begun to issue consumer coupons or use digital currency to subsidize consumers. Direct subsidy policies for families were introduced.

  According to Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS China, China should maintain the current epidemic prevention policy in the short term, but it may also relax some overly tight restrictions on economic activities and ensure smooth traffic and logistics, which means shutdowns, production and supply chain disruptions will gradually ease.

But until the epidemic prevention policy is significantly relaxed, China's consumption will continue to be significantly restricted.

  Luo Huanjie, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, is concerned that the Chinese government has recently issued the "Opinions on Further Unleashing Consumption Potential and Promoting Sustainable Recovery of Consumption".

He said that in the past ten years, consumption has been the key to the stable growth of China's economy, and the stable growth under the epidemic is first to protect the two major market players, "small and medium-sized enterprises" and "people".

  Luo Huanjie said that in the face of repeated epidemics, the bailout policy must be implemented in order to reduce the worries of small, medium and micro enterprises and enable them to continue, thus ensuring employment, driving consumption, and forming a virtuous circle of the market.

For the public, the basic consumption supply should be guaranteed, and the home isolation should be passed smoothly. After the normal life and work order are restored, the consumption demand will pick up.

  "The introduction of the latest consumption promotion policy can to a large extent appease the sentiments of market players, stabilize market expectations, and lay a solid foundation for a comprehensive economic recovery," said Luo Huanjie.

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