Sino-Singapore Jingwei, April 30th (Xue Yufei) "If you want to lose money as soon as you buy a fund, Yinhua needs to find Liu Hui; if the fund falls fast, Nuoan grows to Lao Cai; if the fund falls deep, Invesco Great Wall finds Yanchun..." This is a recent joke on the Internet about the performance of fund managers. Although the content is not credible, it reflects the dismal mood of some "Jimin" investment returns to a certain extent.

  According to data from Tianxiang Investment Consulting, the overall loss of public funds in the first quarter was 1.33 trillion yuan.

Among them, the total loss of stock funds and hybrid funds exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan.

Therefore, some media joked that it was Kun Kun and Lan Lan who "helped" Christians to lose the 1.33 trillion yuan.

  Kun Kun (Zhang Kun), Lan Lan (Glen), Big Brother (Hou Hao), Erlang Shen (Yang Yu) are all nicknames given by Christians to star fund managers during the period of high fund returns.

And now, Kun Kun has returned to Zhang Kun, and Lan Lan has become Aunt Ge.

With the loss of income, the management scale of star fund managers has shrunk rapidly. Except for currency and fixed income (including fixed income +), there are no 100 billion-level active equity fund managers in the market.

"Kun Kun" Fengshen

  The profession of fund manager is an enviable job in many countries, and China is no exception.

Among the many fund managers, there are always some people who are gradually sought after by the public and the media because of their outstanding performance. For example, Wang Yawei and Ren Zesong in previous years have all worn the title of "Public Fund Manager".

However, the fund industry is also changing. Every few years or even a year or two, there will be a scene of "the city's changing king's flag".

  In recent years, the scale of public funds has grown rapidly, and other fund managers with outstanding performance have begun to surpass their predecessors in terms of management scale and embarked on the road of "appointment of gods".

Liu Gesong of GF Fund has been the "top class" in the market in the past two years. He once won the title of "2019 Public Offering Performance Champion Fund Manager". Its management scale increased significantly in the first quarter of 2020, reaching 82.132 billion yuan by the end of the second quarter of 2020. , is the largest fund manager of stock-oriented funds.

  According to media statistics at the time, as of the end of the second quarter of 2020, there were 104 active equity-biased fund managers in the tens of billions of dollars in the market (the products managed by individual fund managers include debt-biased hybrid funds, QDII funds or passive index funds) The number of active equity fund managers with a management scale of more than 30 billion yuan has also reached 14.

  However, in the era of public offering scale expansion, there is only higher, not the highest.

  From the second quarter of 2020, E Fund Zhang Kun, who had previously maintained a management scale of 30 billion yuan, began to make efforts. The scale increased from 31.372 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter to 52.251 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter, ranking fourth in the industry. .

After experiencing the rapid growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, the total management scale of Zhang Kun's five funds reached 125.509 billion yuan, surpassing Liu Gesong and becoming the first in the history of public funds to manage active equity funds with a scale of over 100 billion yuan. fund manager.

Excluding double counting, these five funds had a total of nearly 5.3 million holders at that time, more than triple the number at the end of 2019.

  As a new "public offering brother", Zhang Kun's ability to make money is also unambiguous.

According to Wind data, in 2020, the five funds managed by Zhang Kun - E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Small and Medium Cap, E Fund New Silk Road, E Fund High-quality Enterprises for Three Years, and E Fund Asia Selection, earned a total of 399.04 yuan for the holders. billion.

  At the beginning of 2021, Zhang Kun achieved "out of the circle". He was sought after by investors like an entertainment star. The nickname "Kun Kun" also spread, and some fans even set up a support club for him.

According to Wind data, in the first half of 2021, the scale of funds managed by Zhang Kun is still growing. As of the end of the second quarter of that year, the scale reached about 134.478 billion yuan.

  In 2020, the top fund companies and top fund managers in the fund companies will have a very obvious effect of attracting gold.

In addition to Zhang Kun, Liu Gesong, Liu Yanchun and many other fund managers have a management scale of more than 50 billion yuan.

Shrink by 200 billion

  If the public fund market in 2020 is advancing rapidly, then 2021 can be said to be ups and downs.

  In 2021, the first equity fund manager with a management scale exceeding 100 billion yuan is Liu Yanchun.

The total size of the six funds it manages has increased from 78.323 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 to 101.580 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of 2021.

  The fund products managed by Liu Yanchun have relatively high overall returns.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, during his tenure, the return of Invesco Great Wall Dingyi has reached nearly 350%, and the return of Invesco Great Wall's emerging growth has reached nearly 270%.

  In this male-dominated industry, the outstanding performance of the "medical fund goddess" - China Europe Fund Ge Lan, has earned enough attention in 2021.

The management scale of Gelan’s five funds has increased significantly, with an increase of over 10 billion yuan every quarter. Finally, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the management scale exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 110.339 billion yuan.

  However, unlike Ge Lan’s rapid growth in the scale of management, roughly starting from the second half of 2021, the returns of public funds began to show weakness, and the ability of top fund managers to attract money was weak.

In the third quarter of 2021, Zhang Kun's management scale dropped significantly. By the end of the fourth quarter, its management scale dropped to 101.935 billion yuan, which was lower than the scale of Ge Lan in the same period.

Similar to Zhang Kun's trend, Liu Yanchun's management scale also began to decline from the third quarter of 2021. As of the end of the fourth quarter, the scale fell below the 100 billion mark to 97.850 billion yuan.

  The management scale of Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun’s funds has not increased but decreased. Although Ge Lan deserves the title of “First Sister of Public Fundraising”, she is also facing the pressure of declining income.

According to Wind data, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the net value per unit of the five funds under Gelan’s were all negative. The net value growth rate of Medical Innovation A was -16.03%.

This slump is not over.

In the next first quarter of 2022, the entire fund industry is under the impact of falling returns, and the management scale of star fund managers has shrunk significantly.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, Ge Lan's management scale fell to 96.149 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.190 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter; Zhang Kun's management scale fell to 84.927 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.008 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, a record high A decrease of 49.551 billion yuan; Liu Yanchun's management scale fell to 74.835 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.015 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter.

  In addition, as of the end of the first quarter of 2022, Xie Zhiyu's management scale fell to 76.337 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.008 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter; the management scale of China Europe Fund Zhou Weiwen fell to 69.546 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.907 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. ; Liu Gesong's management scale fell to 61.631 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.704 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter; Hu Xinwei's management scale fell to 52.229 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.147 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, there are only more than 7 active equity fund managers with a management scale of more than 50 billion yuan. In order of scale, they are Ge Lan, Zhang Kun, Xie Zhiyu, Liu Yanchun, Zhou Weiwen, and Liu Gesong in descending order. , Hu Xinwei.

According to the decline in the management scale, the decline of these seven places exceeded 10 billion.

Among them, Liu Yanchun (23.015 billion yuan), Zhou Weiwen (22.907 billion yuan), and Xie Zhiyu (20.008 billion yuan) fell by more than 20 billion.

In addition, there are currently 11 fund managers with a management scale of more than 30 billion yuan. Except for Lu Bin of HSBC Jintrust Fund, which increased slightly, the remaining 10 have declined. Among them, Xiao Nan of E Fund Fund decreased by 11.201 billion yuan, Invesco Great Wall Fund Yang Ruiwen fell by 12.47 billion yuan.

Overall, the current management scale of the above 18 fund managers has decreased by 219.993 billion yuan compared with the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.

  From the perspective of short-term returns, the returns of the seven fund managers with a management scale of more than 50 billion yuan are all negative.

According to Wind data, as of April 29, 2022, the fund returns of Ge Lan, Zhang Kun, Xie Zhiyu, Liu Yanchun, Zhou Weiwen, Liu Gesong, and Hu Xinwei in the past three months were -9.64%, -13.09%, -18.64%, - 8.05%, -18.78%, -22.04%, -11.17%, and the returns in the past year are -31.78%, -29.70%, -30.56%, -29.67%, -27.69%, -31.38%, -28.91%, respectively.

But over the long term, their total returns are still pretty good.

Where is the border?

  In the past two years, the substantial growth of the management scale of star fund managers has been accompanied by the rapid expansion of China's public fund market and the vigorous expansion of top fund companies.

  According to data from the Asset Management Association of China, as of the end of 2019, the size of China's public funds was about 14.77 trillion yuan, and by the end of 2021, it has increased to about 25.56 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 10 trillion yuan.

According to CITIC Securities data, as of the end of 2021, after excluding commodity-based and short-term wealth management funds, the share of top fund companies in the past three years has been relatively stable, and the top ten fund companies accounted for about 40%.

In addition, 39 fund companies have reached the scale of 100 billion yuan, and 8 companies have a management scale of more than 500 billion yuan, with obvious head effects.

A person who has been engaged in fund industry research for a long time told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the growth of the management scale of star fund managers is not only related to the increase in the scale of public funds since 2019, but also has a very important relationship with the previous business division restructuring of fund companies. .

"In simple terms, the restructuring of a fund company's business department is like 'contracting production to households', and the fund managers have more voice. The income of fund managers is related to their management scale, which gives them the motivation to create their own star effect and speed up funds. Inflow. As long as the assessment, income and scale are related, fund managers will expand the scale, which is an important reason why the current fund managers' management scale is much higher than in previous years."

  The scale expansion of star fund managers can be described as pros and cons.

The above-mentioned people said that, on the one hand, it is normal and reasonable for an excellent fund manager to manage larger-scale funds and serve more investors; but on the other hand, whether a fund manager is suitable for managing such a large-scale fund depends on the Whether the capabilities are matched, and whether there is a situation where customer benefits are sacrificed for scale, these need to be explored.

"If the management scale has exceeded his ability boundary and affected the effective implementation of the strategy, it is definitely unreasonable. From an industry perspective, fund companies and fund managers need to develop scale in a controlled manner." But the above-mentioned person further pointed out, It is difficult to define how much scale is reasonable, and it is difficult to give a quantitative standard.

  In the market, although star fund managers are at the forefront of the industry in terms of scale and income, in terms of income, it is not that the higher the scale, the higher the rate of return. On the contrary, the rate of return of some funds that are not very large is relatively good.

However, this also involves another question: Is it related to the excessive scale of the fund products of star fund managers that the returns are not good?

Obviously, this is difficult to determine.

  Industry insiders believe that, with reference to foreign experience, China's public offering market is still in its infancy. As long as China's economy improves, the market size will grow in the future, and there is still a high probability of fund managers managing huge amounts of funds.

But, who will be next?

How to stop loss?

  Looking at the quarterly reports of funds managed by top fund managers, it is found that the main reason for the decline in fund scale is the withdrawal of the net value of product units, and the scale of net redemption by holders is not large.

For example, Zhang Kun has only one fund with net redemptions in the first quarter of this year, accounting for less than 0.3%.

In addition, there were net subscriptions for some funds, and the net subscription for Gelan's China Europe Healthcare A reached 655 million.

  The decline in fund returns has become a common phenomenon in the first quarter of this year.

According to CICC statistics, various active equity products generally showed a significant downward trend in the first quarter, among which common stock and flexible allocation funds lost the most, with median returns of -17.24% and -17.27%, respectively, weaker than that of CSI 300. Index performance.

  Fund companies and fund managers kept shouting to the market to soothe their emotions for the complaints of the "Christians".

In the first quarterly report, Zhang Kun said: "The net value of the fund has fallen significantly, which makes many holders feel anxious, and I feel the same way." "We believe that despite the short-term market facing many difficulties , but it also presents a fairly attractive price for long-term investors. We believe that the free cash flow that a business accumulates on a daily basis will be reflected in the accumulation of its value, and the growing business value will eventually be projected into its market capitalization growth in," he added.

  In terms of investment strategy, according to CICC data, the median position of active equity public offering products in the first quarter of this year was 86.5%, a decrease of 2.3% compared with the end of the previous quarter, but still at a higher quantile (81.6%) since 2010.

At the same time, the group effect of equity funds has been significantly weakened, and the concentration of heavy holdings in individual stocks has declined. They have chosen to hold heavy positions in power electronics, pharmaceuticals and food and beverages, and actively increased positions in new energy, cyclical, pharmaceutical and banking industries.

  Liu Yiqian, head of the Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Research Center, believes that fund managers are still the most professional investors, and their ability to "finance wealth management on behalf of clients" is trustworthy. Individual investors should not only focus on short-term market fluctuations, but should focus on long-term returns.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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