Russian natural gas is still arriving in Germany.

But concerns about delivery failures are growing - not just since Russia turned off the gas taps in Poland and Bulgaria.

What if Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe this Sunday?

The Cologne Energy Economics Institute (EWI) examined this scenario and then sees a significant gap in the local energy supply.

According to the analysis, which the FAZ has in advance, the European countries with a delivery stop have little time.

"Demand has to be reduced as early as summer," says Eren Çam, Head of Energy Resources at EWI.

He calculated this together with his colleagues Hendrik Diers and David Schlund.

Jan Hauser

Editor in Business.

  • Follow I follow

If there is no Russian natural gas from May 1st, according to the Cologne forecast, consumption would have to fall by 459 terawatt hours within a year in the European Union plus Great Britain, but without Spain, Portugal, Malta and Cyprus, with the gas storage tanks then being empty in one year.

The Iberian Peninsula is only marginally connected to the European gas grid and is not included.

If the gas reserves are at the level they are now in a year from now, consumption would have to drop by as much as 790 terawatt hours.

That would be around 18 percent of the forecast total demand and a little more than industry, the main consumer of gas, will need in six months.

The authors assume that far less gas will be needed from Russia than was the case last year when Russia accounted for 38 percent of EU gas imports.

They expect Norway to implement its slightly increased subsidy announcement and increase the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) - with a new floating terminal in Eemshaven in the Netherlands from October and also in Wilhelmshaven in Lower Saxony at the turn of the year.

Who has to do without in an emergency?

One uncertainty depends on the outside temperatures: the cooler it gets, the higher the heating requirement.

The Cologne authors state that a cold winter can increase demand by up to 28 percent compared to their scenario.

The forecast anticipates gas demand of 1,601 terawatt hours from May to October and 4,446 terawatt hours from November to April, when households heat more than in summer.

From May to October, industry with 762 terawatt hours is ahead of households with 343 terawatt hours and electricity generation with 171 terawatt hours.

From November to April, households are ahead with 895 terawatt hours, ahead of industry with 786 terawatt hours and electricity generation with 447 terawatt hours.

If there are actually gas bottlenecks, the question is who has to do without.

According to the previous emergency plan, private households and hospitals are considered protected.

Calls can already be heard from the industry to switch off private companies first in the event of a bottleneck.

In addition to the timing, the local gas reserves are also important for the consequences of stopping Russian deliveries.

If no more Russian gas comes to Europe from May 1st, demand will have to fall in the summer in order to reach the planned minimum fill levels for the storage facilities in November.

In Germany, the new gas storage law stipulates a filling level of 80 percent on October 1st and 90 percent on November 1st.

In the EU there is talk of a filling level of 80 percent on November 1st, but this has not yet been determined.

In order to achieve this, the stored quantity must increase significantly in six months.

In Germany the fill level is 34 percent and in the EU 32 percent.

If the gas reserves fill up in the summer months, this forms a reserve for the winter.

If a filling level of 80 percent is to be reached on November 1st, in the Cologne scenario, gas demand must have fallen by 302 terawatt hours by then (18 percent of summer demand) and by a further 488 terawatt hours from November to April (17 percent of winter demand).

Without the minimum filling quantity in November, demand can only drop from November to April - but then by 790 terawatt hours.

This would mean that the gas storage tanks would be filled to the same extent as they are at the moment in a year.

"The filling level specifications should be flexible and checked again and again," says Çam.

He sees politics in a dilemma between serving summer demand, primarily from industry, the energy sector and hot water, and securing winter demand with additional demand, especially for space heating.

Therefore, the reduction in gas demand over the summer should be initiated immediately and the winter demand reduced with foresight.