Securities Times reporter Pei Lirui

  From the "invincible myth" to frequent breakouts, the fund's attitude towards new stocks is undergoing a significant change.

  On the one hand, as an important buyer in the new market, the frequent breaking of new shares has made the fund's new revenue shrink significantly, and the enthusiasm for new markets has also cooled.

In order to reduce the impact of IPO breakout on investment returns, some funds have chosen not to participate in IPOs, and some funds are adjusting their IPO strategies to actively respond.

  On the other hand, as professional institutional investors, public funds are also responsible for the discovery of the value of new shares and their reasonable pricing. From the once grouped price reduction to the high valuation, the IPO market-oriented reform under the registration system is changing the fundamentals of public funds. Research and quoting capabilities put forward higher requirements.

  Fund's new income shrinks greatly

  Since the introduction of the "New Regulations on Inquiry" in September last year, the marketization process of A-share IPO pricing has accelerated, and the phenomenon of new shares breaking has become more and more common.

Especially since the beginning of this year, under the superimposition of market volatility and sluggish investor sentiment, the breakout of new stocks has set off a small climax in the near future.

  Wind data shows that as of April 22, of the 114 new stocks listed on A-shares this year, 39 stocks broke on the first day of listing, and the breakout ratio exceeded 34%.

Since April, the situation of new shares breaking has further intensified, and 16 of the 28 listed new shares have broken their first day, accounting for about 57%.

  As an important participating institution in the offline new market, the new return rate of public funds has also shrunk sharply in this round of breaking waves.

  A fund manager of a new fund in Shanghai revealed to the Securities Times reporter that a public offering of a new fund with a scale of about 500 million yuan can contribute about 6% to 8% of the annualized rate of return in previous years. will be reduced to 2% to 3%.

  Yan Jiawei, a financial engineering analyst at Huaan Securities, has calculated the monthly new revenue since November 2021. Under the assumption that all new shares are shortlisted, the average winning rate of offline A-type investors (public funds and social security funds) is estimated to be 200 million. Yuan-scale accounts have a new income of 1.6694 million yuan in November 2021, 1.4407 million yuan in December 2021, 878,200 yuan in January 2022, and 189,900 in February 2022. RMB, the new revenue in March 2022 will be 530,300 yuan, and the revenue from new sales in April 2022 will be -100,400 yuan, and the new revenue will decrease month by month.

  Enthusiasm for participation has dropped significantly

  The frequent breaking of new shares is greatly affecting the enthusiasm of investors for participation, and both retail and institutional investors are responding to the phenomenon of new shares breaking with their own actions.

A number of fund sources said that the number of accounts under the company's participation in new sales has decreased, and their attitude toward participation tends to be cautious, and some funds even choose not to participate in new sales.

  Zhou Ping, general manager and fund manager of the “Fixed Income+” Investment Department of Western Profit Fund, gave an example of data, “For example, we have recently seen a new high in the amount of retail investors abandoning new shares; During the peak period, the number of accounts participating in the inquiry reached 11,500, but it has now dropped to around 7,500-8,000, and the overall number of accounts has declined significantly; in addition, investors have also begun to make judgments on the quality of IPOs, and the number of accounts participating in some IPOs is only 4,000-5,000. about one."

  Zeng Wenhong, the fund manager of Nord, also admitted that the breaking of new shares will indeed affect the enthusiasm for participation. "The market quotation is rising, the winning rate is falling, and the new revenue is also shrinking. The number of products we participate in has generally decreased."

  Yan Jiawei counted the recent participation in fund sparring from two dimensions: company level and product level.

  From the perspective of fund companies, in the past three months (i.e. from January 2022 to the present), there were 57 fund companies with a participation rate higher than 90%, compared with the tracking data one month ago (December 2021 to March 2022). On March 18, there were 85 fund companies with a participation rate higher than 90%), and the fund company’s participation in new deals declined rapidly.

  From a product perspective, the median participation rate of active equity funds in the past three months was 83.12%, and the enquiry rate was 64%. The median participation rate of "fixed income +" funds in the past three months was 71.43%, and the enquiry rate was 62.5%. Some "fixed income +" funds have already taken the lead in exiting new markets.

  For a long time in the past, IPOs were an important way to increase returns for "fixed income +" funds, index-enhanced funds, etc. However, in the face of frequent breakout of new stocks, many funds had to change their investment strategies, and this change has already It was confirmed in the just disclosed quarterly report.

  For example, a "fixed income +" fund stated in its just-disclosed quarterly report that since new shares have become the norm, the income from new shares has declined significantly, and the stock position has been appropriately increased. The stock structure has also changed from a low-value blue chip to a necessary one The allocation of industries with tight supply and demand in the consumption, real estate industry chain and new energy industry chain, from relying on new launches to active stock selection and aggressiveness to increase stock bottom positions to increase earnings.

  For another example, FOF generally participates in new shares through two levels. One is to allocate new funds or "fixed income +" funds to indirectly obtain new income; the other is to build stock positions and directly participate in the subscription of new shares.

  However, in the first quarterly report of this year, a certain FOF product wrote, "Because new shares frequently break, the fund has reduced the stock positions in the portfolio that are intended to be subscribed for new shares, and redeemed new shares strategy funds at the same time." As early as the end of last year, the pension FOF began to reduce the subscription of new shares, and a pension FOF wrote in the fourth quarter report of last year, "In the fourth quarter, considering the decline in new sales revenue, the Fund will no longer participate in new sales, and gradually convert the bottom position stock into Equity Fund."

  New pursuit of "effective finalists"

  Of course, avoiding new launches is only an individual choice made by some funds based on product positioning and investment strategies, and more funds still choose to face difficulties and actively respond.

However, the increasingly market-oriented pricing of new shares after the "new price inquiry rules" undoubtedly puts forward higher requirements for the fundamental research and quotation capabilities of public funds.

  Zhou Ping said that since the first batch of new shares broke after the new price inquiry, the company was keenly aware that the return of new shares was no longer risk-free, and the rate of new shares was no longer as high as possible, and immediately proposed "pursuing effective returns." The strategy of "Shortlisting" requires that the shortlist rate of new shares that have not been issued should be as high as possible, and the shortlist rate of new shares that have been issued should be as low as possible. The company also uses this as the evaluation standard for new shares.

  "The frequent breaking of new shares determines that it is necessary to pursue effective shortlisting, and it is difficult to pursue effective shortlisting. We need to conduct in-depth research on the new stock market and new stock targets. When pricing new shares, we not only focus on the company's fundamentals, but also on the company's fundamentals. Predict the performance, refer to the reasonable valuation of comparable companies for pricing, and at the same time pay attention to the performance of the market, adjust the premium or discount level of the valuation according to risk appetite and micro transaction structure, and comprehensively price the company reasonably. introduce.

  From the current point of view, this strategy works relatively effectively.

According to Zhou Ping, under the guidance of the pursuit of effective shortlisting strategies, the shortlisted income of Western Profits in the first quarter of this year was significantly higher than the shortlisted income of all new stocks, reflecting the effect of avoiding breakpoints.

  A researcher specializing in IPO research of a public fund said frankly that after the new regulations, the team expected that the price of IPOs would increase, and there might be a breakout. The number of institutions participating in the inquiry will be significantly differentiated in the future.

  Wind data shows that from the date of offline issuance, among the 98 new shares that have been placed offline this year, the average number of institutions participating in the inquiry is 755, of which only 181 institutions participated in the smallest number and 3,419 institutions participated in the largest number. , the difference between the two is nearly 19 times.

  "We believe that due to the gap in investment and research strength among institutions, the return on IPOs will be polarized in the future. Institutions with strong investment and research strength and the ability to reasonably price IPOs will have effective IPO returns that are expected to be higher than the market average, while Institutions without investment and research strength may gradually withdraw from the IPO market." Zhou Ping said.

  IPO pricing returns to be reasonable

  Multi-party efforts are required

  Overseas, the break of new shares is a common phenomenon in mature securities markets, and the end of the myth of the invincibility of new A shares is also a manifestation of the gradual maturity of the domestic securities market.

But at the same time, the recent high-frequency breaks also reflect to a certain extent that there are still some pain points in the current IPO market.

  "There are two main reasons for the current IPO break. First, the A-share market as a whole is in a stage of wide fluctuations and lower, and the impact is that the sentiment on the first day of listing of IPOs is not high; After the regulation, the current valuation of new shares is relatively high, and there is a high premium compared to the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry in the secondary market. Before the above two reasons have not changed, the high probability of new shares breaking will be a normal phenomenon.” Zeng Wenhong said.

  Zhou Ping further added that there are still some pain points in the current IPO subscription. For example, under the constraint of the new inquiry regulations and the high price exclusion ratio, institutions that do not have the ability to price in order to pursue the finalists, blindly quoted high prices to raise the overall valuation level of IPOs, while those with high prices have not had the ability to set prices. Institutions with pricing power may be forced to increase the valuation and pricing of new shares, which leads to an increase in the probability of breakout after the listing of new shares.

  In addition, the high pricing of new shares has led to over-raising by issuers, and the over-raised funds have nowhere to invest, so they can only buy bank financing, which also goes against the original intention of supporting the development of the real economy.

  "We believe that if we rely on the market's spontaneous adjustment, it may take time for participating institutions to gradually return to the rationalization of the pricing of new shares, and it may take time for new shares to break." Zhou Ping said that the return of the newly stipulated price to a reasonable price requires multiple efforts to guide investors to reasonably participate in the pricing of new shares. and subscription, in which public funds should contribute as much as possible to the value discovery of new shares, price them reasonably, and increase the income of new shares by pursuing effective shortlisting.

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