Our reporter Jiao Yue Shi Lu
Trainee reporter Zhang Xiaoyu
Since the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology announced the "white list" of the first batch of enterprises to resume work and production, Shanghai auto companies have started closed production.
In view of the epidemic, the number of workers who can resume work is relatively small, which has become a headache for car companies.
It is understood that it is still difficult to fully resume work and production recently.
An insider told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "It is too difficult to implement the resumption of work at the enterprise level. Although the roads around Shanghai have been opened, the strict inspection still leads to a decrease in logistics efficiency, and the actual resumption efficiency is not high enough."
From the perspective of industry insiders, the automotive industry chain is long, involving multiple nodes from suppliers at all levels to vehicle production, and one missing link in the middle will lead to production stagnation.
At the same time, there are still problems such as lack of cores and rising raw material prices in auto companies, which deserve special attention.
Shanghai auto companies announce resumption of work
Low employee attendance
Shanghai is an important gathering place for auto parts suppliers. In the early stage, due to the epidemic, many factories were shut down.
To this end, Shanghai issued and implemented the "Work Plan on Carrying out the Operation of Key Enterprises (Trial)", issued the "Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in the Resumption of Work and Production of Industrial Enterprises in the City (First Edition)", and established a "whitelist" system for key enterprises , start the implementation of resumption of work and production.
Most of the list of the first batch of resumption of work are enterprises in the automobile industry chain.
In this regard, an industry insider told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Shanghai is the center of automobile production. In addition to the production of complete vehicles, it also includes many production links in the automobile industry chain such as automobile chips, parts, and automatic driving systems. Factories, prolonged shutdowns will affect the entire automotive supply chain."
Shanghai has many factories of auto parts suppliers.
Among them, the auto parts companies Bosch, ZF, and Aptiv, the international auto supplier giants, all have factories in Shanghai.
A relevant person in the industry revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter, "Affected by the epidemic, Shanghai logistics has been greatly affected. The supply of materials from upstream suppliers has been cut off, and downstream factories have been forced to stop production when they have consumed all parts."
For a while, how to make Shanghai OEMs and auto parts suppliers safely resume work and production has become the focus of the industry.
With the announcement of the "white list", the suspension of production by car companies has gradually eased. Among them, on April 18, companies such as SAIC Passenger Cars, SAIC Volkswagen, and Anji Logistics launched a stress test for resumption of work and production.
Tesla’s Shanghai plant has announced that it will resume work on April 19. On the afternoon of April 23, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said through social media that Tesla’s work in China is progressing astonishingly.
Tesla said that there is still about a week of inventory of vehicle parts, and is currently actively promoting more than 100 suppliers to resume work and production with the support of relevant government departments, and to smooth the logistics chain.
SAIC Motor stated that on April 19, the company completed the first vehicle under the pressure test of resumption of work and production at the Lingang Passenger Vehicle Plant. Dynamic planning for resumption of work and production.
In addition, Flander, which is engaged in the production and sales of auto parts, responded to investors at SSE E Interactive that the company was on the "white list" of SAIC's resumption of work and production. Due to the epidemic control, the Shanghai and Changchun processing bases have a certain impact on external logistics, and the production and logistics of other processing bases are normal.”
Recently, the secretary of the West Shanghai Board of Directors, who is engaged in the production of car seats, responded at E Interactive that the company has paid attention to the epidemic prevention and control guidelines for the resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises in Shanghai, as well as the dynamic planning for the resumption of work and production of customers.
After careful preparation, the company's Shanghai Yanxin Auto Seat Parts Co., Ltd. has entered the "white list" of the first batch of key enterprises, and will resume work and increase production in a reasonable and orderly manner according to customer needs.
The company's other production and operation enterprises are also maintaining close communication with relevant government departments, customers and partners, and on the premise of strict epidemic prevention and control, make preparations, and make reasonable arrangements for resumption of work and production.
According to the data released by the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Information Office on April 22: In the past week (April 18 to April 22), 70% of 666 key enterprises have resumed work and production. SAIC, Tesla When OEMs continue to roll off their OEMs, and related parts and components supporting companies also resume work, auto companies have improved their productivity and capacity utilization.
Although auto companies have announced the resumption of work, there are not many workers who can come to the factory to resume work.
A number of car companies complained: "Although the company requires workers to resume work, the community where they are located does not let people go."
In this regard, a person inside Volkswagen revealed to a reporter from Securities Daily: "The inability of workers to arrive at work is a major obstacle to resumption of work. At present, the OEM adopts a unified shuttle bus method, but the grassroots management of the community does not allow residents to go out. Depots are also unable to receive employees, and the current attendance rate is very low, and employees who enter the factory are also required to live in the factory for closed-loop production.”
In addition to the problem of employees not being able to arrive on time, the shortage of spare parts is also a major problem for OEMs to resume work and production.
The above-mentioned Volkswagen insider told reporters: "Because vehicle production involves the entire industry chain, the timely supply of upstream and downstream parts suppliers is very critical. If parts cannot be supplied in time, the production and assembly will not be successful."
"At present, the vehicle supply chain involves many manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta region. Currently, logistics can only enter Shanghai, but cannot return to the city in time, and cannot assess the impact of logistics. At present, it is difficult to achieve continuous production." The person said.
In addition, the problem of "lack of cores" in auto companies has not been resolved.
A relevant person in charge of a listed automobile company told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Due to the surge in demand for chips for new energy vehicles, the shortage of chips affects all aspects of the vehicle, including window lifters, central control, etc., the lack of one will affect the delivery. schedule."
Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "This year is the last year of policy subsidies for new energy vehicles. New demand for new energy vehicles continues to exceed expectations, driving upstream chips. demand, resulting in a serious contradiction between supply and demand; in addition, affected by the turmoil in the international landscape, the price of neon gas has skyrocketed, resulting in an increase in chip costs and aggravating the shortage of chip supply."
Sales figures fall
Auto capacity recovery still under pressure
Industry insiders believe that at present, car companies have not been able to fully resume production and production, and the output cannot be guaranteed.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All-China Passenger Federation, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, in order to restore the supply of the auto industry back to the right track, it must ensure the supply of parts and adjust the production structure.
In fact, some car companies that have resumed work have begun to consider the supply of parts and components.
"Although OEMs have been stepping up contact with parts suppliers, but due to the epidemic, if the supporting supply of parts cannot keep up, it is an inevitable result to reduce or stop production." Volkswagen insiders told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
It is worth mentioning that the reduction and suspension of automobile production led to a decline in the industry terminal sales data.
In March, the China Automobile Association sold 2.234 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%.
Among them, passenger car sales were 1.864 million units, down 0.6% year-on-year.
Since March, the epidemic in Guangdong, Jilin, Shanghai and other large production and sales regions has repeatedly caused major disruptions to automobile production and sales. Commercial vehicle sales were 370,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%.
Not only that, the wholesale and retail performance of the first week announced by the China Passenger Transport Association in April were both poor. Among them, the average daily wholesale volume was 24,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 45.0%; the average daily sales volume was 25,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%. %, a decrease of 39.0% month-on-month.
Some industry insiders have analyzed that production capacity has been reduced due to objective reasons, and the direct impact on the automotive industry is the price increase at the back end.
Zhang Xiang told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The cost of maintaining normal production during the epidemic will definitely rise sharply, and these will be reflected in the terminal."
"At present, companies with more important positions in the industry chain can resume work. But for car companies, once production is stopped, its first-tier and second-tier suppliers add up to one or two thousand, and the entire industry chain will stop. The longer it takes to resume work, the more difficult it will be, it is not that easy." Zhang Xiang said.
In addition, Zhang Xiang said that traditional OEM warehouses generally only have materials for 14 days.
After the new car is off the assembly line, the finished car can only be stored for 14 days. After the material is used up, it cannot be produced. The chip is also a kind of material, and it is difficult to continuously supply it.
It is mainly stuck in logistics. Now the logistics cost in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by as much as 10 times. Once the chips of the first-tier supplier are in short supply, the spare second-tier supplier will have the goods.
"What needs attention is that a large number of fuel vehicle models are brewing to increase the price." The above-mentioned Volkswagen insider told reporters.
Missing core supply
How can car companies "break out"?
At present, many car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Porsche have also been forced to reduce or stop production due to lack of core supply.
Volkswagen is also facing the problem of difficult vehicle assembly and delivery.
In this regard, some people in the industry said that some parts that have been cut off from abroad can actually be replaced by corresponding manufacturers in China.
"Currently, we can only coordinate suppliers and enable candidate suppliers for parts supply."
In fact, some factories are already looking for another supplier to ensure production.
An insider from a parts factory told reporters: "We have some parts that are supplied from Shanghai, and for those parts whose delivery time cannot be guaranteed, we will find relevant alternative companies."
It is worth mentioning that spare parts manufacturers can change one, but the shortage of chips is not a short time to find a supplier.
Zhang Xiaorong, president of the Deepin Science and Technology Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The global chip production capacity is limited, the demand for chip resources in various industries is increasing, and the automotive industry has already reduced production. Under this premise, the chip shortage is a short-term problem that is difficult to solve. . Depots can consider delaying delivery and wait for the chip production capacity to gradually increase.”
Faced with the crisis of chip shortage, most car companies choose to bind chip manufacturers.
Among them, Tesla and BYD have their own chip companies.
For other car companies, they mainly deal with chip shortages through cooperation or joint ventures with chip manufacturers.
For example, FAW Group is bound to feel a little bit, and Great Wall Motors is holding hands with Horizon.
SAIC Group said that in terms of chips, the company has invested in more than a dozen domestic head chip companies, including Horizon and Black Sesame.
Regarding the practice of car companies investing in chip companies, Zhang Xiang said that it still needs to be observed: "The threshold of the chip industry is too high, and the process requirements are high. Even if it is acquired now, it will need to upgrade its technology in two years, and the investment is very large, so car companies The path to solving the problem of lack of cores by acquiring chip factories is not necessarily effective. At present, only BYD is the most successful car company in making chips. Tesla also hires other companies to manufacture chips, and Tesla itself is only responsible for the design. "
In addition to the problem of lack of core and supply, the adequacy of funds for car companies is also an issue that the industry needs to consider.
In the eyes of market participants, the biggest challenge facing OEMs is the issue of vehicle capital turnover.
Regarding the restoration of the production capacity and supply chain of the auto industry, Zhang Xiang told a reporter from Securities Daily: "It is recommended that the government introduce relevant financial support policies."
Zhang Xiang said: "The difficulty of resuming work and production will cause some small parts suppliers to go bankrupt and go bankrupt, because a lot of expenses during the shutdown period of the company will be paid, so at present, for car companies, resuming work and production as soon as possible is to ensure the industrial chain. The key to maintaining normal operations.”
"Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires the use of a unified passport across the country and the mutual recognition of nucleic acid test results within 48 hours, in the implementation process, some checkpoints still restrict access on the grounds of waiting for nucleic acid results, so the government still needs to comprehensively solve logistics problems. In addition, To leverage 1 trillion yuan of funds through 200 billion yuan in technological innovation loans and 100 billion yuan in loans for transportation and logistics, specific documents and rules should be issued.” Zhang Xiang said.
(Securities Daily)