Yangcheng Evening News reporter Li Zhiwen

  From "10 million followers in 7 days" to "10 million followers in 1 day", fitness coach Liu Genghong is completely popular.

In recent years, due to the impact of the epidemic, people's habit of going to offline gyms and exercising outdoors has been gradually replaced by "aerobics at home", which has promoted the continuous emergence of fitness talent anchors such as Pamela, Saturday Ye, Liu Genghong, etc. lock up.

  However, in sharp contrast, Beijing Calorie Technology Co., Ltd. (the operator of the Keep online fitness platform, hereinafter referred to as Keep), the only Internet fitness unicorn in China, is still losing money and has recently officially launched its business in Hong Kong. The stock exchange has submitted a prospectus and intends to launch an impact on the "first stock of sports technology". Can it be used to fight a turnaround?

  Raised tens of millions of followers in less than a month

  "Move up, don't give up, keep going!" These highly infectious words come from a fitness video that has recently exploded on the Internet.

The protagonist of the video, Liu Genghong, is doing aerobics vigorously while shouting to the netizens in front of the screen to do it with him.

  Liu Genghong is a singer, actor and host from Taiwan.

Previously, he was better known as "Jay Chou's friend", but recently, with his magical and cheerful aerobics video, Liu Genghong successfully broke the circle and gained a large number of "Liu Genghong girls" (another name for his fans) who followed him. .

In less than a month in the past, Liu Genghong's Douyin fans have rapidly increased from a few million to more than 40 million today, of which 10 million rose on April 21, and its popularity has skyrocketed. This is evident.

  With the explosion of Liu Genghong, there are still many A-share shareholders who are "moving", and they have shouted to the relevant sports listed companies on the investment interactive platform, "Sign him quickly!"

  Among them, Chuangyuan Co., Ltd., a company that operates home fitness equipment, replied: "At present, the company's subsidiary home fitness equipment is sold through Amazon's cross-border e-commerce, and it will take time to develop the domestic market. Whether the application is an image endorsement."

  In fact, Liu Genghong's appearance in the circle is not accidental. In addition to his own solid professional foundation, the boost of the epidemic is also one of the reasons.

Under the influence of the epidemic, there are many restrictions on going out to exercise. Aerobics that can be performed at home has gradually become popular among people, and online fitness coaches have also taken the opportunity to rise.

  Why does Keep hit the first stock?

  Keep, who has the halo of "the only Internet fitness unicorn in China", recently announced its plan to hit the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but under the background of Liu Genghong's explosive carnival, it seems a little lonely.

  It is understood that Keep App, launched in 2015, is committed to breaking the shackles of traditional offline gyms, providing users with one-stop sports solutions such as fitness teaching, running, cycling, making friends, fitness diet guidance, equipment purchase, etc. Get professional training without leaving your home.

As the largest online fitness platform in China, Keep has attracted the attention of various capitals since its inception.

Since its establishment in 2015, the company has completed 9 rounds of financing, with a cumulative financing amount of about US$648 million. Investors include GGV Capital, SVF II Calorie, and Wuyuan Capital.

  At the beginning of its establishment, Keep attracted and accumulated a certain amount of traffic through free registration and use.

In 2019, its average monthly active users were about 21.77 million.

In 2020, driven by the epidemic, its average monthly active users have achieved substantial growth: from 2020 to 2021, the average monthly active users will be 29.7 million and 34.4 million, an increase of more than 30%; the average monthly subscription membership has also increased from 77 in 2019. million to 3.28 million in 2021.

  From the perspective of financial data, Keep's operating income is also increasing year by year, but at the same time, its net profit is losing money every year.

The prospectus shows that from 2019 to 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021, Keep’s operating income was 663 million yuan, 1.107 billion yuan, and 1.159 billion yuan, respectively.

Although revenue growth was faster, the pace of growth has slowed.

In the first three quarters of 2021, Keep's revenue increased by 41.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the year-on-year revenue growth rate of nearly 67% in 2020.

  Moreover, Keep is not yet profitable. In the past two years and 9 months, its total loss is as high as 5.437 billion yuan.

Specifically, in 2019 and 2020, Keep lost 735 million yuan and 2.244 billion yuan respectively, and the loss in 2020 has more than doubled year-on-year.

As of the end of September 2021, Keep had a loss of 2.458 billion yuan, an increase of 67.78% year-on-year, and the amount of loss exceeded that of 2020.

It can be said that Keep's current status is "applause but not great".

  In this regard, the Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that Keep’s high customer acquisition cost has affected profitability.

The prospectus shows that Keep’s sales and marketing expenses in 2019 were 296 million yuan, accounting for 44.6% of its total revenue; in 2021, Keep’s sales and marketing expenses surged. As of the end of September last year, its sales and marketing expenses were 818 million yuan, The proportion of total revenue is as high as 70.6%.

  But Rao is so, it seems that it is still difficult to arouse users' willingness to pay.

After interviewing a number of Keep users, the reporter found that their willingness to pay is generally not high.

"The main reason for using Keep is that it is free and convenient, but if you pay, you are willing to go offline, because someone supervises and corrects actions." A Miss Jin, who works in the education and training industry, told reporters.

  expert:

  Listing in Hong Kong is still difficult

  Can Keep continue its life by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange?

  Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of iiMedia Research, doesn't think going public is the way to go.

"High marketing expenses are not healthy for companies. The US stock market is more tolerant of such large-loss companies. As long as the performance increases, the stock price can increase. However, the overall valuation of loss-making companies in the Hong Kong secondary market is not high. ." Zhang Yi told reporters.

  "Marketing for growth is the usual method of most Internet companies, and the core is whether they can build a healthy profit model." Chen Liteng, an e-commerce analyst at Netease Life Services, once told the media that Keep's performance growth is uncertain, and high revenue comes from High marketing (investment), Keep has failed to create a profitable business closed loop, which brings challenges to its value growth.

  In addition, the fitness track is fiercely competitive, and strong enemies are all around: online, there are Gudong, Aidong Fitness, pounding fitness, wild beasts, etc.; offline there are Leke, Super Ape Cheng, Guangzhupen, etc.; In the field of smart fitness hardware, hardware giants such as Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi have also stepped down to join the competition... There are still thorns on the road of Keep moving forward.

  reporter observation

  The epidemic drives the explosive growth of fitness companies

  The outbreak of the epidemic has made more and more people pay attention to the importance of exercise and health, which has led to the birth of the new format of "live broadcast + fitness".

  According to data from Tianyancha, there are currently over 1.31 million enterprises in my country whose name or business scope includes "fitness", and the status is active, existing, moving in, or moving out.

At the same time, the total number of registrations of fitness-related enterprises (all enterprise status) in my country has also increased steadily in the past 10 years.

Among them, the annual registration of fitness-related companies in 2021 will exceed 350,000, reaching a historical peak.

  From the perspective of geographical distribution, Guizhou Province has the largest number of fitness-related enterprises, reaching nearly 230,000, accounting for 17.54% of the national total.

Followed by Guangdong Province and Shandong Province, both with more than 110,000 related enterprises, ranked second and third respectively.

  In addition, the reporter also observed that the government is paying more and more attention to the development of the fitness industry.

Taking Guangdong Province as an example, it issued the "Guangdong Province National Fitness Implementation Plan (2021-2025)" at the end of last year. This document proposes that by 2025, public sports and fitness facilities will be extended to natural villages, and the per capita sports area will reach more than 2.6 square meters. , the Pearl River Delta region has achieved full coverage of 10-minute fitness circles, and other regions have optimized and improved 15-minute fitness circles. The proportion of people who regularly participate in physical exercise has reached more than 40.5%, and there are no less than 2.8 social sports instructors per thousand people. The total scale of the sports industry exceeds 900 billion yuan.

  The document also puts forward the main tasks of realizing new breakthroughs in the supply of national fitness venues and facilities, promoting the new development of youth sports, and creating a new pattern of the sports industry.

  It is foreseeable that the scale of my country's fitness market will usher in a new round of growth.

  (Li Zhiwen)