Our reporter Liu Qi

  Since this week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen rapidly, rising to 2.93% on April 19, hitting a new high since December 4, 2018.

It fell back slightly to 2.85% on April 20, still at a high level.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose rapidly, breaking through 3% to 3.01% on April 19, the highest since March 20, 2019.

  According to data recently released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose to the highest level since December 1981 in March, rising to 8.5% year-on-year, up from 7.9% in February.

Is the record high inflation data the driver of higher U.S. bond yields?

  In this regard, Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that the further rise in inflation is not the reason for the recent rapid rise in U.S. debt. Although the inflation data in March hit a record high, it was more in line with expectations, and The core CPI is the lowest since September 2021, and inflation may be in a stage of gradually peaking. The reaction of US bond interest rates to the disclosure of inflation data is also relatively flat, with only a small increase.

The main reason for the recent rapid rise in U.S. debt is the Fed's tightening policy and the pace of tightening continues to accelerate.

  In fact, after the March meeting on interest rates, the Fed began to signal that it would raise interest rates by 50 basis points.

Judging from recent news, St. Louis Fed President Bullard publicly stated on April 18, local time, that the Fed needs to act quickly and raise interest rates by 50 basis points multiple times, so that interest rates will reach around 3.5% by the end of this year, and not Rule out the option of a 75 basis point hike.

In addition to the rate hike path, Bullard also wants to shrink the balance sheet as soon as possible at the upcoming Fed meeting in early May.

Chicago Fed President Evans said on April 19 local time that the Fed may raise the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5% by the end of the year, and then assess the economic situation. If inflation remains high by then, it may need to be further rate hikes.

  "At present, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds has fully reflected the current market expectations for the full path of interest rate hikes." Mingming believes that if U.S. inflation peaks recently, the upside of long-term interest rates will be 10 to 20 basis points. The end rate is expected to have 50 basis points of upside.

  With the further strengthening of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the dollar index rose, and the dollar index broke through 101 on April 19.

Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that rising U.S. bond yields will attract cross-border capital back to the U.S., boosting the dollar exchange rate trend, but it will also put pressure on other non-U.S. currencies and lead to global financing Costs are rising, and foreign currency debt pressures are increasing.

  "In particular, the depreciation pressure of the yen continues to increase. At present, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has depreciated by more than 10% compared with the beginning of the year, making it the worst performing currency in developed economies." Wang Youxin analyzed that the weakening of the yen is mainly due to the differentiation of Japanese and US monetary policies and the differences between Japan and the US. The effect of widening spreads.

The inflation rate in Japan has been sluggish for a long time. The current inflation level is below 1%, and the economic recovery is weak. The Bank of Japan continues to maintain a large-scale monetary easing policy and controls the yield of Japan's 10-year government bond below 0.25%. 2.85%.

Significant differences in the economic cycle and monetary policy trends have led to the continued widening of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, accelerating the pace of yen depreciation.

  From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, since April 19, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar have both shown a downward trend.

Among them, the two fell below the 6.4 mark on April 20 and April 19 respectively.

As of 17:00 on April 21, the exchange rate of the onshore renminbi against the US dollar was 6.4465, and the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was 6.4715.

  Wang Youxin believes that the recent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is partly influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar.

But unlike the yen, the yuan is supported by economic fundamentals.

Japan's economy is facing a long-term downturn, while my country's economy is more likely to be under short-term downward pressure, and its long-term economic resilience is still strong, so the short-term depreciation pressure is controllable.

In addition, the exchange rate acts as an automatic stabilizer for the adjustment of the balance of payments. When the situation changes, an appropriate adjustment is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of export products and stabilizing foreign trade.

  CICC believes that in the long run, China's economic fundamentals support the valuation center of the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level for a long time.

This means that the RMB has neither a basis for long-term depreciation nor a basis for long-term appreciation.

In the context of increased short-term flexibility and intensified two-way volatility, the RMB exchange rate will still have the logic of mean reversion in the medium and long term.

(Securities Daily)