Spring is here.

Everything grows, blooms and thrives.

The birds are chirping, the crickets are chirping, the bumblebees are buzzing and the bees are buzzing.

The memory of the wet and not really cold winter fades as the faces get colour.

Most of them roam the shopping streets in a halfway good mood to newly in love, the street cafés are doing sales like they haven't for a long time, and even the virus doesn't seem to want to disturb the whole hustle and bustle anymore.

You probably don't have to be a big hero to expect really summery temperatures for the first time in the next few weeks.

After all, we live in climate change.

At the moment, which may not go down well with everyone, I am even very happy that April happened in March and the bets are good that the Christmas weather will not be the same as last year's June weather.

One can even get the impression that the Dax also has spring fever.

After all, since the low for the year at 12,439 points, it has gained around 2500 points or almost exactly 20 percent.

In the given technical environment, that was a mature, almost sensational achievement.

Despite all the negative factors, it is only around 10 percent below its current all-time high.

But that's only the first half of the good news.

Perhaps even more important things have happened subcutaneously.

For the justification, however, it takes a small start.

In principle, technical analysis distinguishes between two different patterns in the case of upward movements after a price slide: one assigns a recovery character to an increase within a downward trend that is still intact, the other opens up the chance of a sustainable lower trend reversal.

The key difference is that the recovery has less to offer structurally than the restart.

In the language of Elliott Waves, recovery settles for a three-part pattern, ABC – up, down, up.

The potential return to a stable upward trend adds another down-and-up: It will be in five parts, 1 to 5. This is exactly what the Dax has been able to do since its low on March 7, 2022.

And that's really really fascinating: In the middle of the biggest crisis since 1945, after a rather manageable slump, the Dax is perhaps already working on a new beginning, a long-term sustainable bottom formation.

The Dax chart shown allows this interpretation without the analyst having to bend to a large extent.

On average, we would still have a few not so nice months ahead of us - but not more.

The forecast arrow in the chart is intended to outline this possible development in outline.

Even better - even if you shouldn't count on it at the moment: Courses above the extremely massive resistance zone between around 14,800 and 15,000 points could be tantamount to a liberation.

As is so often the case, this time there is unfortunately a hair in the soup or a problem that should not be ignored, especially in the current situation: the pattern conjured up by the Dax in the chart over the past six weeks has a lot of charm – based on a rule of thumb in three fifths of all cases.

In the remainder, however, it's a kind of blip that heralds better than it can hold.

In these cases, despite this five-part uptrend pattern, the downtrend will continue for longer and call for fresh bear lows.

Courses below 12,439 points would be the GAU.

In this case, for better or for worse, a technical analyst would have to deal with the “2008-2009 financial crisis” model.

At that time, the Dax halved.

But I don't want to and will only deal with that when it really gets that far.

The situation could be better than the news

But even in the event that really bad things were still waiting for us, what the Dax has achieved in the past few weeks would still have something good: it would be an indication that the current recovery or stabilization will last even longer and the first five-part climb will be joined by another.

Bottom line: The situation could be better than the news.

The message that I can derive from this is even more important for me: Perhaps the suffering in Ukraine will soon really come to an end, at least temporarily.

Admittedly, if I had been asked six weeks ago whether I could imagine publishing an at least slightly optimistic forecast in mid-April, I would probably have said no.

But it's better that way than the other way around: We've seen enough surprises that weren't very uplifting in the past two years.

According to my, albeit highly subjective, memories last year even the summer fell through – and then over.

The author is the managing director of Staud Research GmbH, Bad Homburg.