【People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau】
Editor's note: This is the People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau.
Pay attention to what you want to pay attention to and what you don't pay attention to, and investigate what you want to see and what you haven't seen.
Zhongxin Finance, April 23 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) "People in Germany have been unable to buy oil for a week. When I asked the cashier when it would be available, she said she didn't know." This is not a joke, but an overseas Netizens recently shared their experiences.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, extreme weather, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international price of edible oil has risen sharply, and many countries have even experienced a shortage of edible oil.
So, is the "oil bottle" of the domestic people still stable?
The food oil sales area of a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
Hoarding oil and changing recipes, foreign countries encounter edible oil crisis
According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on April 8, the vegetable oil price index increased by 23.2% month-on-month in March, due to rising sunflower oil quotations, and Ukraine is the world's major sunflower oil exporter.
"Rising sunflower oil and crude oil prices also led to sharp increases in palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, with concerns over reduced exports from South America providing further support for soybean oil prices," the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said.
According to Reuters, Ukraine's Black Sea region produces 60 percent of the world's sunflower oil, while its exports account for 76 percent of the world's total.
According to foreign media reports, due to the shortage of sunflower oil, the largest edible oil bottler in British stores recently said that its sunflower oil will only be available for a few more weeks.
British food makers such as potato chips and cereal bars that use sunflower oil are redesigning their recipes.
Separately, McDonald's in Germany was also forced to replace its cooking oil and advised franchisees to raise prices.
Businesses are busy changing food oils, and in France, people are hoarding oil amid rising prices and potential shortages.
According to the French retail professional magazine "Consumer Weekly" citing independent data, from April 4 to 11, the French people bought a lot of edible oil, and the sales of edible oil increased by 55% compared with the same period last year.
Domestic edible oil prices rose slightly
The skyrocketing price of edible oil abroad has also made people worry about the domestic edible oil market.
Judging from the data, compared with the sharp fluctuations in global edible oil prices, domestic edible oil prices fluctuate less.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the price of edible oil in my country will increase by 6.9% in 2021, far lower than the 65.8% increase in global edible oil.
Entering 2022, although domestic edible oil prices have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the overall magnitude is not large.
According to the market operation monitoring system of the Ministry of Commerce, from April 11 to 17, the wholesale prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and peanut oil rose by 0.7%, 0.7% and 0.1% respectively in the national edible agricultural product market.
Looking at the retail prices of edible agricultural products in 36 large and medium-sized cities, from April 11 to 17, soybean oil, peanut oil, rapeseed oil, and blended oil rose by 0.7%, 0.0%, 0.3%, and 0.2% month-on-month, respectively, up year-on-year. 6.4%, 2.9%, 8.9% and 8%.
Luhua oil sold in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
So, has the actual retail price of edible oil changed significantly?
In the edible oil area of a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance noticed that Luhua Luhua Luhua Soybean Oil 5 liters had a promotional price of 102.9 yuan.
Some consumers said that the price is higher than before.
This has also been confirmed by the supermarket staff.
"Luhua's oil price has indeed risen, and it should have been raised from last month."
Not only is Luhua an enterprise, but Arowana also stated in its announcement recently: "In 2021, the global epidemic will be repeated, and at the same time, affected by extreme weather, energy crisis and other factors, the cost of raw materials will rise significantly, and the average selling price of the company's products will increase accordingly. rose."
However, the reporter recently visited and found that in supermarkets, there are also many edible oils with promotional labels, involving corn oil, peanut oil, sunflower oil, etc. Some olive oil, linseed oil and other products are still "discounted".
Expert: Domestic "oil bottles" can be stable
"The price increase of some oil species such as domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil is mainly due to the increase in the price of foreign raw materials, which is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, causing the price of products to increase. It is not ruled out that some domestic sellers follow the increase." Research on Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the institute, told a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics.
As a big consumer of edible vegetable oil, my country has long been unable to meet all the needs of soybeans, rapeseeds and other crops needed for production, and has a high dependence on imports of raw materials.
Taking soybeans as an example, data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in 2021, my country's soybean imports will reach 96.518 million tons, with an import dependence of 85.5%.
In 2020, my country's soybean imports even exceeded 100 million tons.
In addition, from the information provided by the local wholesale market, international crude oil futures prices and higher freight rates during the epidemic are also factors that have caused the recent rise in domestic food and oil prices.
Although the price of foreign edible oil has skyrocketed and even caused the phenomenon of oil hoarding, in Li Guoxiang's view, this will not lead to a sharp rise in the price of domestic edible oil. Except for a few oil species, the supply and demand of the domestic oil market is relatively stable, and the domestic food oil market is able to Steady.
Soybean, oilseed "defense war" is starting
Although the domestic edible oil market has remained basically balanced in recent years, there is one change that has to be vigilant. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the domestic soybean planting area will be 126 million mu, a decrease of 22 million mu compared with 2020; the soybean output will be 16.4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%.
"The yield per mu of soybean planting is low, the purchase price is not high, and the sales volume is not good. No other crops are grown to make money." A farmer said bluntly before.
The Statistics Bureau of Shuangyashan City, Heilongjiang Province has conducted a survey. In 2018, the average net profit per mu of soybeans in Shuangyashan City was negative 182.76 yuan.
In view of this, in recent years, the state has also actively promoted soybean planting subsidies, etc., to stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for soybean planting and ensure national food security.
With the sudden change in the international environment, it has become a top priority to reduce the dependence on soybean and oil imports, and to stabilize the "oil bottle".
Data map: Rapeseed flower field in Jiangdong Village, Qiantang District, Hangzhou City.
Photo by Huang Hui
A soybean, oil "defense war" is starting.
The Central Rural Work Conference held at the end of 2021 proposed to expand the planting of soybeans and oilseeds to increase the production of soybeans and oilseeds.
The local level also regards the expansion of soybean and oil crops as a "hard task".
In Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area, in order to motivate farmers to plant soybeans, in 2022, the province will continue to implement the differentiated subsidy policy for corn and soybeans. In principle, the subsidy for soybean producers is higher than the subsidy for corn producers by about 200 yuan per mu.
Recently, the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2022-2031)" jointly released by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and other units shows that this year, with the strong support of the national policy to expand soybean planting, it is estimated that soybean planting area and output, Consumption increased; imports fell to 95.07 million tons.
"In the long run, with the increase in domestic soybean and oilseed production, soybean oilseed production will increase significantly, which will reduce import dependence and further promote the stability of domestic edible oil market prices." Li Guoxiang believes.
(Finish)