[Explanation] China's economic data for the first quarter of 2022 released a few days ago shows that the GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and increased by 1.3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.

  [Explanation] How to evaluate China's economic situation in the first quarter?

Recently, industry experts visited the "New" Observation of China's Economy by Zhongxin Finance and Economics to interpret the economic data of the first quarter.

  [Explanation] Experts believe that the overall economic situation in the first quarter started smoothly, and the economy was operating within a reasonable range.

Since the second quarter of 2020, China's economy has grown year-on-year for eight consecutive quarters, which also shows that China's economy is continuing to recover.

  [Concurrent] Wen Bin, Chief Researcher of China Minsheng Bank

  The overall economic situation in the first quarter is still at a stable start, such as price data and the balance of payments are still operating within a reasonable range.

  [Concurrent] Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities

  4.8% is 0.8 percentage points higher than the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year (2021), so the economic growth rate has improved.

From the perspective of other major economies, such as the United States to the fourth quarter of last year (2021), that is, four consecutive quarters of positive year-on-year growth, such as the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan, only three quarters (year-on-year positive growth), We are eight consecutive quarters (positive year over year) and our recovery has maintained this global lead.

  [Explanation] Experts said that although the epidemic has spread in many places in China since March, and the international geopolitical conflict has pushed up the prices of some commodities and other unfavorable factors, it has caused certain pressure on China's economic growth in the short term, but the economic situation in the first quarter reflects the China's macro policy has been effective.

  [Concurrent] Wen Bin, Chief Researcher of China Minsheng Bank

  In the first quarter, we achieved a trade surplus of RMB 1 trillion, which is also an increase from the same period last year (2021). On the one hand, it reflects the strong resilience of our entire foreign trade. This is that our supply chain and industrial chain system are relatively complete. , it still has strong competitiveness in the international market; in addition, it has a great relationship with the support of our macro policy.

Our foreign trade has been continuously optimized, the business environment for our trade and investment, the liberalization of investment that facilitates trade, and the acceleration of export tax rebates in terms of taxation, and financial support is also increasing.

  [Concurrent] Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities

  The central government has recently proposed to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, mainly to stabilize employment and prices.

We are currently relatively moderate inflation, not the current prominent contradiction, but employment may be a major challenge throughout the year, which is also the main consideration of the Chinese government's repeated emphasis on employment priority policy.

  [Concurrent] Zhao Yang, Managing Director of CICC Research Institute

  If we want to stabilize growth this year, we may rely more on such a factor as fiscal policy, so we should generally look at a combination of loose fiscal policy, loose money and tight credit.

  [Explanation] Will this round of the epidemic affect the realization of the economic goals for the whole year?

Experts give their opinions.

  [Concurrent] Wen Bin, Chief Researcher of China Minsheng Bank

  Adhere to the policy of "dynamic clearing" and achieve the greatest prevention and control effect at the least cost. This is an important prerequisite for whether our economy can stabilize and expand further in the next stage.

  [Concurrent] Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities

  I believe that the Chinese government should better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and optimize epidemic prevention measures while insisting on dynamic clearing. I think the difficulties should be temporary and can be solved.

If we can solve this problem well and maintain our leading edge in epidemic prevention and at the same time maintaining our leading edge in resuming work and production, I think there is still hope for us to achieve our full-year goals.

  (Reported by reporter Shan Lu in Beijing)

Responsible editor: [Luo Pan]