Securities Times reporter Tang Wei

　　Affected by the lack of revolutionary functional stimulation and the epidemic, domestic smartphone sales continued to decline.

According to the analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market released by the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, from January to February this year, the total number of mobile phone shipments in the domestic market was 47.886 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%.

Among them, shipments in February reached 14.864 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, and domestic brand mobile phone shipments were 12.783 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.7%.

　　Lack of innovative breakthroughs

　　Mobile phone manufacturers

　　Recently, topics such as "How long has it been since you changed your mobile phone" and "Why young people are reluctant to change their mobile phone" have been frequently searched. Behind the topics, the embarrassment of the smartphone industry is reflected: In recent years, there have been no application scenarios and functions of intergenerational innovation, which cannot stimulate the enthusiasm of young people to switch phones.

Under the above hot search topics, many young people said that their mobile phones have been used for three or four years, and the reasons for not replacing them are that mobile phones are getting more and more expensive, and that mobile phones have no transformative innovation, only functional Make some small adjustments, and they will not stimulate their shopping desire at all.

　　Research reports and data from some institutions also provide evidence.

According to data released by industry analysis company Counterpoint, the average replacement cycle for users has exceeded 31 months.

Market research firm Strategy Analytics said that the average replacement cycle for Chinese users is 28 months.

　　Major mobile phone manufacturers have to do everything possible to develop new products and new functions to attract people.

On the evening of April 11, the vivo X Fold folding screen mobile phone started omni-channel pre-sale. So far, the five major mobile phone manufacturers in China, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, have all become players in the folding screen mobile phone market.

This is the new competitive focus track targeted by major mobile phone manufacturers in order to cope with the ever-increasing and fiercely competitive smartphone market - folding screen mobile phones. It is also a product that domestic mobile phones hope to compete with Apple in the high-end market.

　　According to statistics from IDC, a data research organization, the global shipments of folding screen mobile phones will reach 7.1 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 264.3%; among them, the market size of folding screen mobile phones in China will reach 1.5 million units.

It is estimated that by 2025, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones will reach 27.6 million units, with a compound growth rate of 69.9% from 2020 to 2025.

From the point of view of e-commerce platforms, folding screen mobile phones seem to be "hard to find", and several brands of folding screen mobile phones are out of stock.

　　However, for domestic folding screen mobile phones, it may be difficult to start production for a while.

Mr. He, a senior mobile phone industry person, said in an interview with reporters that on the one hand, Samsung entered the folding screen market relatively early, occupying an absolute king position. It shipped more than 10 million units, accounting for 87% of the sales of folding screen mobile phones.

On the other hand, the global chip shortage problem has not been completely solved, and there are technical difficulties in the design of the hinge and the screen of the folding screen mobile phone, which may affect the shipment of the folding screen mobile phone to a certain extent.

In addition, the current price of folding screen mobile phones ranges from a few thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan, which is not close to the people. It is easy to open up sales space only when the technology matures and the cost decreases.

　　In the face of the shrinking market, smartphone manufacturers are combining their own brand tonality, new changes in the supply chain and potential new needs of consumers to show their magical powers, intending to open up the situation.

However, unless there is a major innovation in research and development, it is difficult to impress consumers with "micro-innovation" alone.

　　order reduction

　　Industrial chain profits decline

　　"The repeated outbreak of the epidemic has continued to deepen the impact on the economy and all walks of life, affecting people's consumption. The decrease in mobile phone orders has led to intensified competition and fierce price wars. At the same time, the cost of production, service research and development, supply chain and other aspects However, it keeps rising, resulting in a drop in profits.” As a supporting supplier of the mobile phone industry chain, Mr. Zeng has been rather annoying recently. Since the Qingming Festival, he has obviously felt that the market has been cold, and there have been no new orders and no proofing.

　　On April 11, Sunny Optical announced the shipment data for March, showing that shipments of mobile phone lenses fell by 8.1% year-on-year.

　　The sluggish demand combined with rising costs, and this pressure is now difficult to pass on to consumers through price increases. Mobile phone manufacturers began to reduce market expectations and began to cut orders in the mobile phone supply chain, and reduced specifications and configuration of mobile phone products. It has a far-reaching impact on the entire industry chain.

　　Recently, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingji said that major Android mobile phone brands have cut orders, accounting for 20% of this year's shipment plan.

He also lowered his forecast for shipments of the new iPhone SE in 2022, predicting that shipments will be reduced to 15 million to 20 million units, from 25 million to 30 million previously.

There is also news that OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi Group lowered their mobile phone order expectations by 10% in the second quarter of this year.

　　In this context, the pressure on related companies in the industry chain is not small, which is also evident from the stock price performance of listed companies.

Since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of Xiaomi Group, Sunny Optical, Luxshare Precision and other companies have fallen by more than 30%.

　　A person in charge of a medium-sized automation equipment supplier in southern China also said that the profit of the mobile phone industry chain is very meager, and he has rarely received orders from this industry in recent years.

　　multiple shocks

　　Physical stores continue to shrink

　　"Business is very bad, and sometimes I can't sell a mobile phone a day." A mobile phone shop owner in Bao'an District, Shenzhen said that it is obvious that consumers' replacement cycle has become longer. Since the epidemic, sales have dropped by 20 to 30 percent.

　　Shenzhen Huaqiangbei was once the largest mobile phone trading center in Asia. Major shopping malls were overcrowded. It used to be "hard to find a shop" here. Some shops even sold for more than 300,000 yuan per square meter, and shop transfer fees were as high as more than 1 million yuan.

Mr. Li from Hunan came to Huaqiangbei in 1998 to engage in the second-hand mobile phone trading business. He witnessed the prosperity of Huaqiangbei, and is now experiencing the loneliness of Huaqiangbei.

　　Mr. Li has moved several times, and the glass counter is about 1 square meter. He once rented 30,000 to 40,000 yuan a month in a good location. In 2016, he rented it in one market. He remembered that the rent at that time was about 9,000 yuan. After that, with the downturn in the mobile phone industry, the rent dropped all the way, and now it is only in the early 2000s. Even so, most of the shops are still empty.

"After the epidemic this year, the market was going to restrict the business of shops with odd and even numbers. Everyone said it was unnecessary, and no one came with any number. We only open at 1 pm now, and the market is not crowded until 3 or 4 o'clock. Come on, and then at 5 o'clock, there is no one there. No one really buys it." He told reporters that the second-hand mobile phone business is difficult to do. In addition to the decline in consumer demand and the decline in the industry's prosperity caused by the epidemic, another major reason is the electricity The impact of businessmen, and now that his peers have changed careers, he is also actively looking for opportunities.

　　Affected by the two-way impact of e-commerce and brand mobile phone stores, as well as the decrease in traffic due to the continuous epidemic, the survival space of third-party mobile phone stores has been further reduced.

　　In addition to individual small stores, large brands such as Huawei are also shrinking the scale of offline stores.

According to Huawei’s official website, as of March 18, 2022, the number of Huawei’s offline stores was 9,394, a decrease of 209 from the previous month. Among them, Huawei’s HES&HES-H, HESR, and Fortress stores were 2,069, 2,777, and 4,544 respectively. , decreased by 62, 107, and 41 respectively from the previous month, and the scale of offline retail channels gradually shrank.