Securities Times reporter Zhuo Yong Hu Huaxiong Wang Jun Sun Xiangfeng
In recent days, new shares have frequently broken, which has aroused the attention and discussion of the market.
According to the statistics of Securities Times reporters, among the 96 new stocks listed on the A-share market this year (excluding Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, the same below), 33 stocks had a break on the first day of listing, and the break rate exceeded 1/3. Since April The situation of breakage has further intensified. Among the 17 new stocks not listed on the North Exchange, 11 have broken their hair, and the proportion of breakpoints on the first day exceeded 60%.
This is very rare in recent years.
This round of "breaking hair" of new stocks not only caused many novice players to lose money, but also caused a large number of investors to abandon their purchases.
In addition, the underwriting brokerage institutions are also under great pressure.
However, for the current wave of new shares breaking, market participants generally believe that they need to be treated rationally.
Wu Liangqun, executive director of Shenzhen private equity firm Qianhai Dingye Investment Development Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters that there are many reasons for this round of IPO breakouts: First, with the deepening of the registration system, the supply of IPOs has gradually increased, and the market has Second, the overall market performance has been poor recently, and investors have a strong wait-and-see mood; third, the epidemic has superimposed the external war situation, which affects market expectations; fourth, the price-earnings ratios of these new stocks are generally high, and under the complex economic situation , the market lacks confidence in the company's subsequent growth.
"Now that the pricing power is handed over to the market, there will inevitably be a painful period of market self-regulation, and new shares will also undergo a process of dynamic balance of valuation." Wu Liangqun believes that this is precisely the performance of A-shares aligning with the international market. Don't be pessimistic.
New stocks with high price-earnings ratio become "hardest hit areas"
The frequent break of new shares has become a topic that cannot be avoided in the recent A-share market.
This round of IPO breakouts roughly started in the fourth quarter of last year. At that time, the reform of the new inquiry system was implemented, which accelerated the market-oriented process of IPO pricing. The myth of "invincible IPOs" that lasted for many years was gradually broken. Since then, the phenomenon of IPO breakouts has become more and more increasingly common.
Securities Times reporters found that there are some obvious characteristics of this round of new shares breaking.
On the one hand, from the perspective of the composition of new shares that break through, there is obvious structural differentiation in the phenomenon of breaking.
There are 22 and 11 stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext respectively, and no new stocks on the main board appear.
From the perspective of issuance valuation, among the above 33 new shares, 20 new shares have issued price-earnings ratios higher than the industry average price-earnings ratio disclosed in the prospectus, and another 11 new shares belonged to unprofitable corporate stocks, indicating that investors are not interested in high-valued issuance and price-earnings ratios. Unprofitable companies are relatively cautious.
Whether the current pricing and valuation of the relevant companies can match the future business prospects and profitability of the company still needs time to verify.
From the perspective of industry distribution, if divided by CITIC's first-tier industry, among the 33 new shares that broke out, there were as many as 10 new shares in the electronics industry, followed by 7 in the pharmaceutical industry.
There are also many machinery and computer industries.
On the other hand, many new stocks broke by a large margin.
Statistics show that the lowest price of 5 new stocks on the first day of listing, including Weijie Chuangxin-U, Aojie Technology-U, Puyuan Jingdian-U, Maiwei Bio-U, and Haichuang Pharmaceutical-U, fell more than the issue price. 30%.
In fact, the breakout wave of new shares is not the first time that it has appeared in the A-share market.
The latest large-scale breakout in the A-share market occurred in 2012. According to the listing date, more than 150 new shares were listed that year, and about 50 new shares broke on the first day.
However, since the restart of the IPO in 2014, few new shares have broken on the first day of listing, and this situation will continue until the fourth quarter of 2021.
Wang Jiyue, a senior market person, believes that every wave of breakouts in the past was eventually self-adjusted by the market, and this time was no exception.
Judging from the performance of mature markets, it is normal for new stocks to make profits and losses. On the contrary, it is rare for new stocks to make steady profits without losing money before A shares.
Brokerage underwriting forced to become a major shareholder
"We are no longer involved in IPOs, and IPOs have become venture capital, and it takes more time to study new shares." A person from a private equity firm in Shenzhen told a Securities Times reporter.
As the new stock market weakens, the yield of new shares decreases, and even breaks frequently, the new ecosystem is also changing.
One of the changes is that the participation of new investors has dropped sharply.
According to reporters, there were more than 6.2 million new investors on the Science and Technology Innovation Board at its peak, but recently the number of new investors on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has dropped directly to 3.2 million.
The number of new investors participating in the GEM listing is also significantly reduced.
According to the reporter's statistics, in the initial stage of the implementation of the registration system on the Growth Enterprise Market, the number of investors who subscribed for new shares on the Growth Enterprise Market exceeded 13 million. With the increase in the number of investors who participated in the opening of the GEM authorization, the number of investors participating in the GEM new listing reached 15.5 million at the peak period. Affected by multiple factors recently, the number of new investors has plummeted to about 9 million at present.
The second change is that the number of offline institutions participating in price inquiry placement has decreased significantly.
With the rise of the STAR Market, in mid-2021, there will be more than 500 off-line inquiry institutions for new shares on the STAR Market.
However, recently, with the weakening of the new stock market, the number of institutions participating in the quotation offline has decreased.
For example, the data disclosed by Haichuang Pharmaceutical previously showed that there were only 181 preliminary inquiry institutions, and after excluding invalid quotations, the number of investors who made valid quotations in the end was 101.
With the decrease in the number of inquiry institutions, the number of institutions participating in the placement offline also showed a downward trend.
The number of effective subscriptions and placements of Haichuang Pharmaceuticals online is 1,908, which is at a low level in recent years.
In mid-2021, the number of effective offline placement institutions has exceeded 10,000 many times.
A similar situation occurred on the GEM.
According to the data recently disclosed by Guoneng Nissin, there are 308 institutions participating in the inquiry, but only 168 investors in the final effective quotation.
However, the Securities Times reporter noticed that for many companies with relatively good fundamentals, there are still many offline inquiries and placement institutions, which also reflects that institutions are more inclined to companies with better fundamentals in terms of new share placement options.
The third change is that, due to the increasing number of abandoned investors, securities companies are under greater pressure to underwrite the shares abandoned by investors.
Recently, online investors abandoned the subscription of 3.3815 million shares of Naxinwei, a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with an amount of 778 million yuan abandoned, all of which were underwritten by the underwriter Everbright Securities.
In addition, Everbright Fortune Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Everbright Securities, also participated in the issuance of strategic placements, co-investing 505,300 shares, with a co-investment amount of 116 million yuan.
That is to say, the total number of shares underwritten and co-invested by Everbright Securities amounted to 3.8868 million shares.
According to the data of the top ten shareholders released by Nanochip, the number of shares held by Everbright Securities is slightly higher than that of the company's fifth largest shareholder.
"The increase in the abandonment rate of IPOs not only makes securities companies face the pressure, but also requires securities companies to focus on discovering the real reasons behind and improving the status quo." The relevant person in charge of the investment bank of Sinolink Securities said that the investment bank of securities companies must strictly control the quality control port, and the quality of sponsorship is excellent, High-quality listed companies that have passed the business pass are listed; secondly, sufficient research and prudence must be maintained when pricing new shares.
In addition, in addition to the investment banking business, the brokerage business should also pay enough attention to how to do a good job in investor education, strengthen investor services, and how to combine investor service work with the requirements of investor education concepts under the registration system.
Forcing investment banks to set accurate pricing
New shares break, and brokerage sponsors and co-investors may encounter "floating losses" in the short term.
Wind data shows that as of April 19, securities companies participated in 40 follow-up investments in new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board during the year, of which 26 are currently in a state of floating losses.
For example, Haitong Innovation, the co-investment agency of Aojie Technology-U, currently has a floating loss of 81.4347 million yuan.
Nevertheless, the market still generally believes that these phenomena are the embodiment of the strengthening of market-oriented games after the reform of the new stock inquiry system.
The above-mentioned person in charge of the investment bank of Sinolink Securities stated that the completely market-oriented new stock inquiry mechanism will inevitably bring about a dynamic game between investors who are shortlisted at high prices and break losses after listing. The stage of paying more attention to new short-term gains is more obvious.
In some mature capital markets overseas, similar cyclical fluctuations will also occur in the pricing of new shares.
"Generally speaking, it is the market mechanism that is at work," said a relevant person in charge of an investment bank at a large securities firm.
The frequent occurrence of broken hair, abandoned purchases, etc., also put forward higher requirements for the ability of securities companies to develop their investment banks.
Wu Kaida, chief strategy analyst of Debon Securities, believes that under the requirements of the registration-based "market-based pricing", the rational return of new stock returns, investment banks, as professional financial intermediaries, should give full play to their industry resources and research capabilities to help investors. Make better judgments on the true value of new shares and determine a reasonable issue price to take into account the issuer's financing needs and investors' pursuit of income.
With the increasing pressure of co-investment and underwriting, some market views believe that securities investment banks should increase the cost of sponsorship and underwriting to ensure the safety of their business.
"At present, the IPO market is still full of monks and porridge, and some securities companies are not competitive enough. In fact, they do not have the ability to raise prices. Some large securities companies have stronger risk response capabilities, and do not need to raise prices to cope with the increase in short-term abandonment." An investment banker from a securities company in Shanghai "At present, it is more feasible for brokers to properly avoid risks through precise pricing," said the reporter.