Our reporter Cui Guoqiang
In the first quarter of 2022, the confidence index of non-ferrous metal enterprises was 49.8, up 1.1 points from the previous quarter. Although it was still below the critical point, the confidence index rose for the first time after three consecutive quarters of decline.
Since the beginning of this year, in some sub-sectors of non-ferrous metal industry enterprises, especially the mining and smelting and processing fields in the upstream of the industrial chain, the production and operation of enterprises have achieved a "good start".
Why can non-ferrous metal upstream enterprises achieve profit growth?
What efforts should be made for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve stable development?
The reporter conducted an interview on the relevant content.
Confidence index picks up
Fushun Hongtoushan Mining Co., Ltd., a company invested by China Nonferrous Metals Group, recently reported good news. In the first quarter, the content of copper concentrate completed 117.37% of the quarterly plan, and the content of zinc concentrate completed 103.36% of the quarterly plan; net profit increased by 44% year-on-year, a record high. The best level in the history of the same period, exceeding the established tasks and targets in the first quarter.
Information from the Western Mining Group shows that strategic emerging industries are growing rapidly and have gradually become their new economic growth points.
In the first quarter, the Western Mining Group achieved an operating income of 10.9 billion yuan and a total profit of 1.263 billion yuan, an increase of 88% over the same period of the previous year, and achieved a "good start" in the first quarter.
On April 11, Zijin Mining announced that in the first quarter of this year, its revenue was 64.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%; the total profit was 8.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 6.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%. Net profit in the first half of 2021 is comparable.
In the first quarter of 2022, the confidence index of non-ferrous metal enterprises was 49.8, an increase of 1.1 points from the previous quarter.
Among them, the spot index this quarter was 49.0, down 0.4 points from the previous quarter.
The expected index for the next quarter was 50.4, up 2.2 points from the previous quarter.
Peng Bo, deputy director of the Information and Statistics Department of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that in 2022, the confidence index of non-ferrous metal enterprises will rebound for the first time after three consecutive quarters of decline. picked up.
Among them, the recovery of the spot index was mainly driven by the sharp recovery of the unit product selling price index.
The rebound of the expectation index mainly benefited from three indices with larger increases: first, the production volume expectation index was 52.9, up 5.1 points from the previous issue; second, the new order volume expectation index was 51.8, up 4.5 points from the previous issue; Yes, the unit product selling price expectation index was 51.4, up 3.3 points from the previous issue.
"The fundamental reason for the rise in the index is that non-ferrous metal companies are mostly confident in the general trend of recent market prices." Peng Bo said.
Guo Zhaohui, chief analyst of commodities research at the Research Department of CICC, believes that among the sub-indicators, companies' expectations for orders and production in the second quarter have increased, which is the main contributor to the increase in the expected index, but it is also necessary to pay attention. Affected by the situation in Ukraine since March and the repeated domestic new crown pneumonia epidemics, the future confidence index is still at risk of decline.
Positive factors stack up
Regarding the reasons for the "good start" of the profits of upstream non-ferrous metal enterprises, Zhao Wuzhuang, former deputy director of the Policy Research Office of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, analyzed that this year, my country's economic work has implemented the policy of "taking the lead in maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability" to create a positive environment for industrial development. It has created a good market environment and supported enterprises in related industries to achieve a "good start".
The superposition of the four factors is conducive to the production and operation of the non-ferrous metal industry, especially to bring a good profit situation to the upstream enterprises in the industry chain.
First, from the perspective of the macro environment, the national policy support is strong, and the positive conditions for the development of industry and enterprises have increased.
In February 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Printing and Distributing Several Policies for Promoting the Steady Growth of the Industrial Economy". 5 aspects put forward 18 specific measures to promote the development of industries including non-ferrous metals.
Second, the continuous development of new energy industries such as photovoltaics and wind power has boosted the market demand for aluminum and polysilicon.
Recently, the market for metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and rare earth has been "hot", and prices have risen sharply.
Third, the global production capacity of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other metal mines has been released one after another, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the processing fee of imported copper mines has rebounded, which has increased corporate profits.
Fourth, driven by rising energy prices in the international market, the production cost of non-ferrous metals in foreign countries continued to rise, resulting in a situation of "high outside and low inside" prices, which stimulated some non-ferrous metal enterprises to make export profits.
"China's processed products have a price advantage, and exports have maintained a strong trend. According to customs data, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March increased by 34% year-on-year to 590,000 tons, and the export volume in the first quarter increased by 26.7% year-on-year." Guo Chaohui believes that with the In recent years, Chinese-funded enterprises have been actively deploying mineral resources overseas. Since the second half of last year, the mines of Chinese-funded enterprises have been successfully put into operation, becoming the main engine of profit growth.
Difficulties to be resolved
Although the upstream enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry chain have achieved good results, the overall operation of the non-ferrous metal industry still faces difficulties and challenges.
Zhao Wuzhuang believes that the intensified geopolitical conflicts in the world, the severe domestic epidemic situation, the increase of various uncertain factors, and the continuous emergence of "black swan" events have caused the production and operation risks of the industry to rise sharply.
Since 2022, the "LME nickel futures incident", "periodic jumps in lithium and cobalt prices in domestic and foreign markets", "logistics difficulties caused by the epidemic", and "the rise in electricity prices caused by changes in the power supply system" are very important to my country. The normal operation of the non-ferrous metals industry poses challenges.
The non-ferrous metal industry must adhere to the belief of "guaranteing supply and stable prices", and take ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain as the basic foothold to meet domestic consumer demand. and other measures to maintain the stable development of the industry and the stability of market supply.
Guo Zhaohui said that my country's non-ferrous metal industry is developing rapidly, but there is still room for improvement in technological innovation, industrial structure, quality and efficiency, green development, and resource security.
At present, my country's non-ferrous metal industry has an unstable foundation for continuous improvement, and still faces outstanding problems such as "overheating" investment in some fields, poor logistics in some areas, and operating difficulties for small and medium-sized processing enterprises, which affect the smooth operation of the industry.
The domestic epidemic has repeated from time to time. Recently, the logistics in the Yangtze River Delta region has been severely impacted, which has caused the production and operation of non-ferrous metal downstream processing enterprises with LTL delivery to be in trouble.
This area is one of my country's non-ferrous metal processing and consumption centers, as well as an important port for import and export of non-ferrous metals.
If this situation continues, it will cause great disruption to the smooth operation of the industry.
It is worth noting that the number of loss-making enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry and the amount of loss of loss-making enterprises are increasing, especially the production and operation difficulties of small and medium-sized non-ferrous metal processing enterprises.
The bailout of SMEs is still a major issue affecting the stability of the industry.
Duan Shaofu, director of the Heavy Metals Department of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that the current nonferrous metals industry is operating in a generally stable situation, but capital costs, logistics costs, and raw material costs are continuing to grow, and the operating risks and challenges of the mid- and downstream industries are increasing, requiring a high degree of vigilance.
In the next stage, we must continue to thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, effectively reduce the production cost of enterprises, and prevent operational risks.
It is necessary to implement the supporting policies for the manufacturing industry and the tax and fee reduction policies for small and micro enterprises to help enterprises solve difficulties, promote the smooth operation of the industrial economy, and improve quality and efficiency.