How will the A-share market perform after the comprehensive RRR reduction boots are implemented?
The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of them believe that although the current monetary easing such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts cannot directly alleviate investors' concerns, the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the market is imminent.
At present, the market has entered the bottom grinding stage.
CICC said that there are still many uncertainties facing the current market inside and outside the market, but considering that the current asset prices may have reflected more pessimistic expectations, the cumulative market correction time is long and the adjustment range is large, so similar to the previous sharp decline. The stage may have ended, and the follow-up market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities also pointed out that in general, the market is in the mid-term U-shaped bottom construction period, and still faces some challenges and pressures in the short term.
Among them, the next month will be a key observation period, and the market is expected to usher in the conditions for confirming the completion of the bottom.
CITIC Securities believes that although the current monetary easing such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts cannot directly alleviate investor concerns, the market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. The mid-term recovery may be delayed, but the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the market is about to explode.
In terms of allocation, stable growth is still the main line that many securities companies are optimistic about.
Everbright Securities pointed out that this year's economic work is mainly stable, and the finance is expected to be relatively positive.
The sectors related to stable growth usually perform better during the period of policy force.
CITIC Securities also advises investors to stick to the main line of steady growth, and deploy low-valued and low-expected varieties.
CITIC Securities: Repairing the market is imminent
The inflection point of repeated domestic epidemics is approaching, and it is expected that social zero will be gradually realized.
This round of epidemic has seriously dragged down the economy, and it will be difficult for growth to return to the target level in the first half of the year.
Therefore, it is soon expected that the expansion of investment-related policies in the second quarter will speed up the policy, supply chain dredging and consumption stimulation.
Looking forward to the market outlook, due to the epidemic, the mid-term repair market has been delayed, but the stable growth market will be more clear and durable.
The current monetary easing such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts cannot directly alleviate investors' concerns. The market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. The mid-term recovery may be delayed, but the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the market is imminent.
Specifically, first of all, it is expected that the inflection point of repeated local epidemics in China will come, and the goal of social zero will be achieved soon.
Secondly, it is expected that the economic situation in the first quarter of this year will be weaker than that in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, the economy is expected to continue to be under pressure in the second quarter under the influence of the epidemic, and the negative impact will not be weaker than that in the first quarter.
Finally, the policies surrounding the stabilization of real estate and the bailout of the service industry are expected to be accelerated. At present, various departments are focusing on smoothing the supply chain and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta region. After the epidemic is under control, it is expected that the policy will comprehensively increase the stimulus consumption according to the damage. .
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to stick to the main line of steady growth, and deploy low-valued and low-expected varieties.
CICC: The market has entered the grinding stage
Looking forward to the market outlook, although the market may still repeat in the short-term, the stage similar to the previous sharp decline may have ended, and the follow-up market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage.
Specifically, there are still many internal and external uncertainties, but considering that the current asset prices may have reflected more pessimistic expectations, the cumulative market correction time is long, and the adjustment range is large, and the overall market valuation has returned to At the historically low position, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance. The market opportunities in the medium and long-term dimensions outweigh the risks.
In terms of configuration and structure, in the current environment of uncertainty, on the one hand, it is recommended that investors control their positions.
On the other hand, we can look for a direction with "relative certainty", such as "stable growth" related sectors; companies with better performance that may exceed expectations, companies that may be the low point of the year in the first quarter from the perspective of year-on-year profit growth; shareholders Companies with more senior executives and better fundamentals.
In addition, there have been signs of accelerated adjustment in the manufacturing growth style recently. Although there may be a lack of catalytic factors in the short term, some high-quality companies have experienced long-term allocation value after many adjustments in the early stage.
China Securities: There are still challenges in the short term
Looking forward to the market outlook, in general, the market is in the mid-term U-shaped bottom construction period, and still faces some challenges and pressures in the short term.
Among them, the next month is a key observation period.
Specifically, due to the domestic epidemic, domestic epidemic prevention and economic policies, global inflation, overseas interest rate hikes and expectations of balance sheet reduction are still in a state of negative or chaotic expectations.
The next month is a key observation period for these conditions to become clear or marginally improved, and the market may usher in the conditions for confirming the completion of the bottom.
At the same time, a series of issues such as the closure and resumption of work, the setting of the follow-up economic policy at the Politburo meeting at the end of April, the global inflation situation and interest rate hike expectations are also important observation points in the future.
Before these factors become clear or improved, the market faces challenges and pressures. Investors are advised to be cautious and wait.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors focus on wait-and-see and defense, and the industry can pay attention to banking, agriculture, public utilities, real estate chains, CXO, and military industries.
Guotai Junan Securities: Continue to change positions
Looking ahead, in the macro mix of declining economic expectations and high volatility in discount rate expectations, the positional warfare of growth and value is no longer applicable.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors continue to switch positions.
Among them, the style plate rotates within the value, rather than the growth and value switching.
Low valuation, performance, and certainty of performance are the best solutions at the moment. The value market is far from over, but the internal value of the value will rotate.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors pay attention to stocks with low risk characteristics, such as stocks with low valuation, performance and certain performance.
It should be pointed out that a low-valued sector is not equal to a sector with low-risk characteristics, and it is very easy to fall into the valuation trap by picking stocks only at low valuations.
Equally important is the performance certainty of stocks until the credit path is clear.
Haitong Securities: Growth is expected to dominate in stages
Looking back at the recent trend of major indexes, the ChiNext Index continued to fall, hitting a new low of 2,417 points on April 15, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index have stabilized since mid-March.
Historical data shows that the bottoming order of each sector at the bottom of the market is: high-dividend stocks, broad-based indices, and fund stocks with heavy holdings.
Judging from the current microstructural characteristics, high-dividend stocks have bottomed out in August 2021, the market as a whole stabilized in mid-March this year, and the compensation for the fund's heavy-holding stocks has recently appeared.
With the increase in stable growth policies and positive progress in epidemic prevention and control, we should have hope for the market outlook.
The style of this year is similar to that of 2012, the value of the whole year is slightly superior, and the growth is expected to be dominant in stages.
Looking ahead, in the second quarter, we can focus on two directions related to the policy of stabilizing growth: there is still room for financial real estate.
New infrastructure is more flexible, such as low-carbon economy and digital economy.
Huatai Securities: You can pay attention to the sector that exceeded expectations in the first quarter
As of April 15, the first quarterly report forecast disclosure rates of all sectors were the lowest in the past 10 years. % and 3.4%.
Judging from the first quarterly report of A-shares, the pressure on the cost side of enterprises is still there, and the downstream demand has shown a significant marginal improvement compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.
Among them, the epidemic was the biggest disturbance factor in the first quarter, but the delay of orders may increase corporate profits in the remaining quarters.
Looking ahead, investors are advised to pay attention to sectors with a high probability of exceeding expectations in the first quarter of 2022, as well as the direction of capital expenditures for sectors with better cash flow.
On the one hand, you can pay attention to the energy central enterprises, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, medical equipment, CXOs, and banks that have a high probability of exceeding expectations in the first quarter and are booming. Among them, banks and CXOs may not be fully priced and are relatively less affected by the epidemic, so you can focus on them. .
On the other hand, where the strong follow-up demand lies depends on who has better cash flow and where the money will be used.
The cash flow of energy central enterprises is relatively good, and the demand for stable growth drives the expansion of their capital expenditures, which will drive the expansion of demand for green electricity, solid waste treatment, and recycled metals.
Everbright Securities: Moderate rebound
With the emergence of a series of favorable events such as the central bank's RRR cut, deposit interest rate reduction, and the improvement of the epidemic situation, investor sentiment is expected to gradually recover.
Superimposed the disclosure of the first quarterly report with a relatively high profit growth rate during the year, it may also bring a certain degree of fundamental support to the market.
Equities are likely to see a modest rebound for the remainder of April.
However, after the first quarterly report, the market may still face a certain degree of downward pressure on earnings, and it is expected that the market will hardly show a positive performance, and the inflection point may not appear until the economy bottoms out.
In terms of allocation, after the current round of the epidemic is under control, consumption and steady growth may still be the main line of rebound.
In the short term, support for offline consumption may further increase in the future.
From the perspective of the whole year, the performance of the consumer sector is also worthy of optimism. The core is that the performance of the consumer sector is relatively less elastic, and the downward pressure on performance during the economic downturn is relatively smaller, and the relative advantage is more prominent.
At the same time, steady growth will also be the main line of the capital market in 2022.
This year's economic work is mainly stable, and the finance is expected to be relatively positive.
Among them, the sectors related to stable growth usually perform better during the period when the stable growth policy is in force.
Investors are advised to pay attention to building materials, banks, real estate, etc.
GF Securities: Value style continues to dominate
Social financing data in March continued to show that the biggest problem at present is the lack of credit demand.
The repeated epidemic has caused pressure on import and export data in March. It is expected that the follow-up "steady growth" policy is expected to increase, which will increase the "win rate" of the value style.
Before the real estate supply and demand blockage and the epidemic prevention policy have not changed significantly, the bottom of the A-share profit cannot be expected to form a consensus. Therefore, the value stocks may be dominated by shocks, while the growth stocks will still be trapped in the upward trend of US bond real interest rates and changes in the supply and demand pattern. .
Therefore, the value style will continue to prevail.
In terms of industry allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to three major directions: First, resources and materials that benefit from “supply-demand gap” inflation, such as coal, copper, and potash fertilizers.
The second is the "old-style" steady growth force to carry the role of economic "stabilizer", such as real estate, consumer building materials, home appliances, etc.
The third is the "steady growth" of consumption and post-epidemic recovery expectations, such as leisure services and hotels.
Tianfeng Securities: Continue to wait for the arrival of credit expansion
RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and various meetings are more similar to "signal bombs" in the battle to stabilize growth, and can play a role in restoring confidence in the short term, but the medium-term trend of the market is not determined by this.
The key to winning the battle to stabilize growth is to rely on the credit expansion team: the expansion of credit or social financing determines economic and fundamental expectations, and ultimately determines the valuation trend of the A-share market.
In terms of allocation, before the market accumulates more expectations and signals that the economy may stabilize and recover, investors are advised to be cautious in their overall positions, continue the defense idea of low-valued sectors, and focus on the macro logic of market transactions.
If there are more signals that the economy may gradually stabilize, the market risk appetite may gradually increase, the style of growing manufacturing and consumption may begin to recover, and the market will transition from macro trading logic to trading fundamentals.
At the same time, in the reversal of the predicament, you can pay attention to private medical services, pork, travel, real estate leaders, car chains, and must-have foods.
Huaxi Securities: Repeated grinding
Looking ahead, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike expectations and the domestic epidemic have restricted market risk appetite. The continued development of the epidemic has led to short-term pressure on the domestic economy. Poor logistics and supply chain disturbances have caused some companies to suspend production and production, and household consumption has been impacted.
Therefore, before the epidemic becomes clear, it is expected that A-shares will still be dominated by repeated grinding.
The RRR cut in April released a signal that "steady growth" will continue to increase. In the future, we can focus on the implementation of policies in key areas and the recovery of fundamentals: first, the combination of epidemic prevention and control and logistics support is expected to promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises; second, In terms of consumption, consumption-promoting policies such as consumer coupons may be introduced one after another; third, there is still room for independent domestic monetary policy, and the liberalization of credit still needs to be increased, and the 1-year and 5-year LPR may be reduced.
In terms of style, the dividend strategy and stable growth value blue chips are still better.
In terms of configuration, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines: first, infrastructure related, such as construction and building materials; second, real estate-related finance and real estate; third, sectors that are expected to gradually improve in distressed industries, such as farming, etc.