Zhongxin Finance, April 18th. On the 18th, at the press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said that since the beginning of this year, The international situation has undergone many changes, and international commodity prices have reached new highs.
According to data from the World Bank, in March, the international energy price index rose by 24.1% month-on-month, and the non-energy price index rose by 8.1% month-on-month, and the overall index hit a new high in recent years.
According to Fu Linghui's analysis, in the next stage, international commodity prices are more likely to fluctuate at a high level.
From the perspective of supply, Russia is an important exporter of energy, grain and fertilizer in the world, and Ukraine's corn and wheat exports account for a relatively high share of the world.
The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in the production of related products and an increase in export controls, which will impact the global commodity supply.
From the perspective of demand, the continued recovery of the global economy will support the growth of commodity demand.
In anticipation of supply shortages, some commodity importing countries have increased demand for hoarding, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.
At the same time, due to the sanctions and counter-sanctions between some countries due to geopolitical conflicts, the efficiency of the global supply chain has been affected, and the transportation and transaction costs of bulk commodities have increased, increasing the pressure on price increases.
Fu Linghui believes that under the background of tight supply and demand and increasing uncertainty in the international bulk commodity market, there is a greater possibility of high price fluctuations.
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