Chinanews Finance, April 19 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) The lack of momentum for the global economic recovery and the impact of the international situation. Recently, "stagflation" has become a high-frequency word in the discussion of the global economy.
Will our country face this problem?
Take a look at the official response and expert interpretation.
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Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
"Our country is not the same as them"
"During the global response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the macroeconomic policies of many countries were actually very loose, which also brought about a flood of liquidity, followed by rising prices and inflationary pressure." Renmin University of China China Capital Market Zhao Xijun, co-director of the research institute, told China-News.com that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also brought greater pressure on the global supply and demand of bulk commodities. The superposition of the two factors has made the relationship between supply and demand even more tense, and the pressure of rising prices is increasing.
In addition, "Many countries did not withstand the impact of the epidemic and brought about economic recovery and normal operation when they 'released water' before, and residents' consumption capacity was still insufficient. Enterprises in many countries, especially traditional enterprises, lacked production and supply capacity. Let inflation escalate into 'stagflation'." Zhao Xijun said.
Is my country facing the risk of "stagflation"?
In this regard, Zhao Xijun believes that "our country is not the same as them."
Zhao Xijun pointed out that from the perspective of national policy, in response to the epidemic, our country has adopted many targeted policies, but has not broken through the bottom line, maintaining considerable concentration, and the "master gate" is under control.
In terms of demand, there is no "helicopter money" to stimulate; in terms of production and supply, enterprises have achieved rapid resumption of production, ensuring the stability and adequacy of supply.
"So, my country's economic recovery is the best and fastest in the world, and the pressure on 'stagflation' is much less." Zhao Xijun said that although the country is now facing pressures from employment and economic growth, domestic policies have dealt with it. It is more appropriate to resolve internal and external pressures as much as possible through policy regulation, such as counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation.
Since March, there have been sporadic outbreaks in many parts of the country, and it is necessary to implement epidemic prevention and control.
In this regard, Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, pointed out, "The impact of the epidemic is only a phased impact. The resilience of China's economy itself and the super-large market have strong potential to resist the impact of the epidemic. It should be said that the overall situation of China's economy will be positive in the future."
However, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that "now that developed economies are withdrawing from easing policies, the Fed may raise interest rates more significantly and shrink its balance sheet faster, and the impact on global liquidity and financial markets cannot be ignored. Domestic priorities are Control the epidemic as soon as possible, further strengthen counter-cyclical regulation, stabilize and expand aggregate demand, and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range in the second quarter."
Data map courtesy of Tianjin Port Group
Prices expected to remain moderately rising
In terms of prices, Zhao Xijun said that my country is also facing the pressure of the international bulk commodity market price pushing up.
"The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the obstruction of global supply chains and trade, pushing up the prices of commodities such as food, energy, and metals, and causing increased pressure on imported inflation," Wen Bin said.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, also said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 18th that since the beginning of this year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, and the impact on the country is increasing.
"But in general, the supply capacity of the commodity and service market is relatively sufficient, and there is a good foundation for maintaining price stability." Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, the consumer price has maintained a moderate increase.
In the first quarter, the CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, slightly larger than the increase in January-February.
Core CPI rose 1.2%, the same increase as in January-February.
"From the perspective of the trend, although there are international imported factors and some short-term supply pressures for fresh food, in general, there are more favorable conditions for the CPI to maintain a moderate rise." Fu Linghui pointed out.
Fu Linghui said that from the perspective of demand, consumption and investment demand are still recovering, which has a limited effect on price-pulling.
From the perspective of supply, grain production has been continuously harvested and stocks are abundant, the production capacity of live pigs has generally recovered, the supply of pork is generally sufficient, and prices are still falling.
my country's commodity and service market supply capacity is relatively sufficient.
At the same time, the market's measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices will continue to be effective, which is also conducive to price stability.
Therefore, there are still foundations and conditions for the price to maintain an overall stable and moderate upward trend.
(Finish)