(Economic Watch) How can China boost consumer confidence when the epidemic is repeated?

　　China News Service, Beijing, April 18 (Reporter Chen Su) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 18th, in the first quarter, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, of which March fell by 3.5% year-on-year.

In the face of the repeated epidemic situation, China's consumption recovery is under great pressure. What is the future trend?

How to boost consumer confidence?

　　Data show that in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 10,865.9 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.

According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods increased by 3.2%, and the retail sales of rural consumer goods increased by 3.5%.

　　Judging from quarterly data, China's consumption has maintained growth, and its leading role in economic growth is obvious. In the first quarter, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth was 69.4%, an increase of 18.7 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, higher than the contribution of total capital formation. Rate.

　　However, from the monthly data, in March, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 3.5% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles fell by 3.0%.

Monthly consumption data showed a rare negative growth phenomenon for many years.

　　Talking about the reasons for the negative growth of consumption in March, Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, told a reporter from China News Agency that the weak consumption in March was mainly affected by the spread of the epidemic in China, and residents wanted to consume but had nowhere to spend. Consumer demand is suppressed.

In addition, the negative growth of consumption in March is related to the high growth of 34.2% in March last year, and due to the holiday factor, the consumption data in March will usually decline compared with January and February.

　　According to experts, boosting consumption is one of the most important tasks for China to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5.5%, and more policy support should be provided for consumption.

　　Zhao Xijun, co-director of the China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said at the China News Agency's "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2022" held on the 18th that the current macro economy is facing some points of concern, among which, It is necessary to further strengthen efforts to boost consumption, increase residents' confidence in consumption, and raise consumption expectations.

　　Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, told reporters that the negative growth in consumption in March shows that China's demand contraction has not been effectively alleviated, but continues to intensify. Weak consumption recovery is a prominent problem facing China's macro economy.

　　Talking about how to boost consumption in the later stage, Bai Jingming said that it is necessary to implement policies to ensure employment and people's livelihood, implement existing policies in a timely manner, and stabilize residents' consumer confidence.

　　Wang Jun said that the core of stabilizing growth is stabilizing consumption. In addition to doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, optimizing epidemic prevention policies, and returning to normal production and life as soon as possible, we must also rely on the expansion of fiscal policy.

The current epidemic has caused some middle- and low-income earners to lose their sources of income, and their cash flow has been interrupted or reduced. Therefore, fiscal policy is needed to restart this part of consumption.

Fiscal policy should introduce more new and practical measures for the residential sector to give residents a sense of gain and help them tide over the difficulties. In the future, if we want to reverse the current situation of weak consumption in the short term, we need to pay attention to the methods of cash subsidies and consumer coupons. Subsidies will be given to the affected people, industry practitioners, and low-income groups, which will directly help curb the decline in consumption in the short term.

　　"In addition to daily consumption, we must also pay attention to adjusting consumption policies and boosting consumption demand for upgrades." Wang Jun said, for example, some current policies have curbed consumer demand in some areas. Under the overall situation of stable growth, these policies can be adjusted. Make appropriate adjustments.

　　Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, China's online retail continued to maintain a relatively active trend.

The national online retail sales reached 3,012 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 2,525.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.

　　Looking forward to the consumption trend in the later period, Pang Ming, chief strategist of Huaxing Capital, believes that the disturbance brought by the multi-point recurrence of the epidemic and the upgrading of prevention and control measures to residents' income growth, spending willingness and consumption recovery has been reflected to a certain extent. will face more pressure.

　　Bai Jingming believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, the current consumption in China is suppressed, but it does not mean that there is no consumer demand. For example, after the peak of the epidemic in 2020, consumer demand will gradually emerge.

It is expected that with the control of the epidemic in the later period, consumer demand will be released, and China's total retail sales of consumer goods will continue to grow steadily.

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