The first quarter of 2022 "Economic Daily - Postal Savings Bank of China Small and Micro Enterprise Operation Index" report released -

　　The index shows a trend of rising first and then falling

　　Economic Daily - Small and Micro Enterprise Operation Index Research Group of Postal Savings Bank of China

　　In the first quarter of 2022, the "Economic Daily - Postal Savings Bank of China Small and Micro Enterprise Operation Index" fluctuated around the boom line. The small and micro index was 49.7 in January, broke through the boom line to 50.1 in February, and dropped to 49.1 in March.

　　Recently, the COVID-19 outbreak in many places in China has led to a contraction in market demand, and at the same time, affected by the increase in various costs, the operation index of small and micro enterprises in the first quarter of 2022 has shown a fluctuating downward trend as a whole.

However, from the perspective of sub-items, the cost index dropped the most and the absolute value was the lowest, and the confidence index continued to be above the prosperity line.

　　In terms of different regions, the indices of East China, Central South and Southwest China were on the boom line in January, while the indices of North China, Northeast and Northwest regions were below the boom line; in February, the Northeast region index rose to the boom line, and the East China and Southwest regions remained at the boom line. Running online, the index in the central and southern regions dropped to below the boom line; in March, the index in the central and southern regions rose again to the boom line, and the indices in other regions declined to varying degrees and were below the boom line.

　　In terms of industries, in January, the wholesale and retail industry and accommodation and catering industry indexes were on the boom line, while other industries were running under the boom line; The small and micro enterprise index also rose to the boom line; in March, the manufacturing small and micro enterprise index rose to the boom line, while other industries declined to varying degrees and were below the boom line.

　　Confidence index exceeds boom line

　　From January to March, the market index was 50.7, 49.8 and 50.3; the purchasing index was 50.2, 49.8 and 49.7; the performance index was 50.1, 49.3 and 48.3; the expansion index was 47.8, 49.7 The confidence index is 52.2, 54.6 and 51; the financing index is 48.1, 50.1 and 48.3; the risk index is 49.2, 50.8 and 47.7; the cost index is 45.5, 48.3 and 44.7 respectively.

　　The expansion index, confidence index, financing index, risk index and cost index are in line with the trend of the overall index. They first increased and then decreased within three months of the first quarter. Among them, the confidence index, cost index and risk index decreased the most in March, which was the overall index. The most important reason for the decline.

The purchasing index was above the boom line in January, but continued to drop below the boom line in February and March.

The market index first fell and then rose, surpassing the boom line in March.

Due to the obvious rise in costs, the performance index continued to decline, and the performance index in March was as low as 48.3.

　　Judging from the absolute value of the index in March, among the sub-indices, only the market index and the confidence index exceeded the boom line, and the cost index in other sub-items was the lowest, as low as 44.7 in March, reflecting the relatively large increase in costs.

　　The Northeast region index fell sharply

　　From January to March, the indexes of small and micro enterprises in North China were 49.2, 49.1 and 47.7 respectively; the indexes of small and micro enterprises in Northeast China were 48.9, 50.1 and 46 respectively; the indexes of small and micro enterprises in East China were 50.4 respectively. , 50.9 and 49.6; the small and micro enterprise indices in the central and southern regions are 50.1, 49.5 and 50.2 respectively; the small and micro enterprise indices in the southwest region are 50.1, 50.8 and 49.7 respectively; the small and micro enterprise indices in the northwest region are 47.6, 49.1 and 48 respectively.

　　The indexes of the four major regions of Northeast China, East China, Southwest China and Northwest China are in the same trend as the overall index, rising first and then falling within three months of the first quarter.

The small and micro enterprise index in North China continued to decline, and the small and micro enterprise index in central and southern China first fell and then rose, up 0.7 points in March compared with February.

From the regional index in March, only the central and southern regions have increased, and the remaining five regions have declined to varying degrees.

The index of small and micro enterprises in Northeast China, which was most affected by the epidemic, dropped significantly in March, from 50.1 in February to 46; the indexes in East China and North China, which were more affected by the epidemic, also fell by 1.3 points and 1.3 points respectively in March compared with February. 1.4 points.

In absolute terms, only the central and southern regions' overall index exceeded the boom line in March, reaching 50.2.

　　Manufacturing index rises in March

　　From January to March, the operation indexes of small and micro enterprises in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were 48.9, 50.4 and 47.7 respectively; the operation indexes of small and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry were 49.7, 49.7 and 51.2 respectively; The micro-enterprise operation index was 48.4, 48.9 and 48.8 respectively; the small and micro enterprise operation index of the transportation industry was 48.3, 49.3 and 46.4 respectively; the operation index of the small and micro enterprises in the wholesale and retail industry was 51.5, 50.6 and 47.6 respectively; the small and micro enterprises in the accommodation and catering industry The operation indexes were 50.3, 51.5 and 45.6 respectively; the operation indexes of small and micro enterprises in the service industry were 49, 50.7 and 47.6 respectively.

　　Among the seven industries, the operation index of small and micro enterprises in the five major industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, transportation, accommodation and catering, and other service industries has the same trend as the overall index, rising first and then falling within three months of the first quarter.

The operation index of manufacturing small and micro enterprises remained unchanged in January and February, but increased in March, which is the only industry among the seven major industry indexes that achieved an increase in March.

The operation index of small and micro enterprises in the wholesale and retail industry continued to decline in the first quarter.

Affected by the epidemic, the operation index of small and micro enterprises in the accommodation and catering industry dropped the most in March, from 51.5 in February to 45.6 in March, a drop of nearly 6 points.

The indexes of other services, wholesale and retail, transportation and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also experienced larger declines in March, down 3.1 points, 3.0 points, 2.9 points and 2.7 points respectively from February.

　　Judging from the sub-indices of various industries in March, the increase in the overall manufacturing index was mainly due to the increase in its market index, purchasing index and performance index, of which the market index rose by up to 5.3 points.

However, at the same time, the cost index, risk index, confidence index and financing index of manufacturing enterprises dropped significantly, reaching 4.5 points, 2.9 points, 2.5 points and 1.7 points respectively.

The overall operating costs of manufacturing enterprises have risen, the payment cycle has been extended, and confidence and financing needs have declined.

The lodging and catering industry was affected by the epidemic, and the market index fell by 8.5 points, and the business volume and operating income both dropped significantly; at the same time, the performance index and the purchasing index of the lodging and catering industry fell more than the average decline of the index, and the profit also dropped significantly. Purchasing momentum weakened.

Other service industry market indexes, purchasing indexes, performance indexes, confidence indexes and risk indexes decreased more than the industry average.

Wholesale and retail trade confidence index, market index, performance index and risk index decreased significantly.

The performance index, cost index and confidence index of the transportation industry decreased significantly.

The decline in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery market index, risk index and cost index was higher than the industry average.

The general construction industry index fell slightly by 0.1 point, its market and purchasing index rose, and its performance index, risk index, financing index, confidence index and cost index fell.

In general, various industries have experienced rising operating costs, slower payment collection cycles, higher debt ratios, and increased financing difficulties.

　　From the overall operation of the index, small and micro enterprises are currently under great pressure.

The first is the decline in market demand and the rise in operating costs.

Affected by the epidemic, most industries and regions have experienced rising operating costs and declining business volumes, with the accommodation and catering industry and Northeast China being the most affected by the epidemic.

In addition, rising costs also come from rising commodity prices and pressure on labor compensation.

Recently, due to the unstable international situation, commodity prices ended the downward trend since the second half of last year.

The second is the rise in risk. The risk index of various industries and regions has risen sharply. The increase in debt ratio and the extension of payment collection cycle are common phenomena.

Once again, confidence and expansion intentions declined, and confidence and expansion indexes showed a downward trend in all regions and industries.

Finally, the coexistence of declining financing needs and increased financing difficulties cannot be ignored.

　　(Note: The small and micro index has undergone algorithm revision since 2022, and the previously released index will be updated.)