Zhongxin Finance, April 18 (Reporter Li Jinlei) How China's economy started in the first quarter is a focus topic at home and abroad.

  The answer will be revealed on April 18.

According to the schedule, the State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:00 am on April 18, inviting Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, to introduce the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2022. A reporter asked.

  At that time, heavy data such as China's economic growth rate, residents' income, employment and consumption in the first quarter will be released together.

  The GDP growth rate in 2022 is targeted at around 5.5%. Under the influence of the recent outbreak of the epidemic, what growth rate will GDP record in the first quarter?

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

  Let's take a look at some of the previously announced economic indicators.

  Among them, data from the National Energy Administration showed that the electricity consumption of the whole society continued to grow in March, reaching 694.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.

From January to March, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,042.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%.

  The General Administration of Customs said that in the first quarter of this year, foreign trade imports and exports had a stable start.

According to customs statistics, the total value of my country's import and export of goods in the first quarter of this year was 9.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

Among them, exports were 5.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.4%; imports were 4.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%.

  Judging from the price data, in March, affected by factors such as the domestic spread of the epidemic and the rise in international commodity prices, the CPI was flat month-on-month, up 1.5% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month.

On average from January to March, the national CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year.

  In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 49.5%, 48.4% and 48.8% respectively, which were 0.7, 3.2 and 2.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. below the critical point.

  As for the specific GDP growth rate in the first quarter, many institutions have different forecasts.

On April 12, the Inclusive Green Development Tracking Survey (IGDS) project team of the Major Economic and Social Survey Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the results of the "IGDS-2022 First Quarter Survey", and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to be about 5.3%.

  The CICC Research Report believes that since March, the domestic epidemic has rebounded significantly.

The overall industrial production remains stable, but construction investment and freight logistics have declined, and the production of some enterprises has also been disrupted.

Taking into account the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter may be around 5.0%.

  Judging from the economic data of the first two months, the main economic indicators have all rebounded, and the growth rates of industrial production, consumption and investment have all accelerated.

But this good momentum was disturbed by some unexpected factors.

  Conflict broke out between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices have risen, and domestic epidemics have recently occurred frequently. Some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations, bringing greater uncertainty and challenges to the smooth operation of the economy.

  At present, China is also increasing its efforts to stabilize growth.

  On April 15, the central bank announced to cut the reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, aiming to support the development of the real economy and promote the stability of comprehensive financing costs.

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