Securities Times reporter Mao Kexin

  The resistance of middle and downstream manufacturers to high-priced lithium has received certain feedback. The superimposed epidemic has impacted the supply chain and blocked logistics, resulting in some manufacturers reducing production scheduling and lithium carbonate prices.

The industry expects that the overall supply of lithium carbonate will be tight this year, but it will reach a balance in the next 2-3 years.

  Weakening short-term demand

  The price of lithium carbonate fell below the 500,000 yuan mark for the first time this year.

According to Xinyu Lithium Battery data, on April 12, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 495,000/ton compared with the previous day.

  Lithium carbonate is the core raw material of the lithium battery industry chain, which directly affects midstream products such as lithium iron phosphate cathode and electrolyte solute lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Since the beginning of the year, the price of lithium carbonate has soared from 291,000 yuan / ton to 515,000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 77% in three months.

On March 25, lithium carbonate fell for the first time, but as of April 11, it remained at a high level of more than 500,000 yuan/ton.

  500,000 yuan is regarded as an important threshold for the price of lithium carbonate.

After lithium carbonate broke through this threshold in early March, there was resistance in the industry chain.

Mo Ke, founder of True Lithium Research, once said in an interview with Securities Times·e company: "As far as I know, these battery and material manufacturers represented by leading companies have been seeking collective boycotts, and the carbonic acid of more than 500,000 yuan / ton. Lithium is not bought.”

  The recent price decline is mainly due to weaker demand side.

Jiang Sha, an analyst of Xinyu Lithium Battery, told the Securities Times · e Company reporter that in order to keep prices down, battery factories and cathode material factories have been focusing on digesting inventories since March, and the purchase volume has decreased. toss.

In addition, the battery factory's production schedule was slightly lowered in April, and the corresponding cathode material factory may also reduce the production schedule at the same time, so the demand is slightly weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate is somewhat unbearable.

  "The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate has fallen more significantly. The smelter's quotation of battery-grade lithium carbonate is still relatively strong, but the focus of transactions has also moved down. Now battery factories and material factories are still relatively resistant to the purchase of high-priced lithium carbonate." Jiang Sand said.

  The impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain cannot be ignored, and many new energy vehicle manufacturers have recently announced to suspend production.

Weilai Automobile recently revealed that since March, its supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have successively stopped production and have not yet resumed.

Affected by this, NIO's vehicle production has been suspended.

"This situation is not ours. Many manufacturers have suspended production." Li Bin, chairman of Weilai, said when interacting with car owners.

  In addition, Shanghai-based Tesla, SAIC Volkswagen, Zhiji Automobile, etc. have also recently announced to suspend or reduce production.

Xinyu Lithium Battery analysts predict that the new energy vehicle production side will be affected by the Shanghai epidemic, and the demand for lithium batteries will decrease by more than 5GWh in the month.

  Ningde City, the base camp of the Ningde era, was also hit by the epidemic.

Xinyu lithium battery analyst predicts that the planned lithium battery production capacity of CATL is close to 250GWh, of which the two bases in Hudong and Huxi will be greatly affected, and the affected lithium battery capacity is expected to be about 60GWh.

  There is also a certain degree of blockage in material transport.

A reporter from Securities Times · e company interviewed a number of people in the lithium battery industry chain and learned that the expressway sections in some areas were affected by the closure and control, and the timeliness of cargo transportation was weakened.

One of the manufacturers revealed that at present, supplier trucks can enter the Ningde Times factory, but the driver cannot get off the bus.

Chen Yun, deputy director of the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, said in a media interview that the time limit for Ningde era to pass through various high-speed checkpoints is guaranteed by issuing passes.

  "The impact of the epidemic is short-term. At present, battery factories and material factories have a certain safety stock, which can last for a few weeks, but if they continue to consume, it may have a greater impact, especially the stock of cathode material factories is relatively low. It's gone." A lithium battery researcher told a reporter from Securities Times e Company.

  It is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand in 2 to 3 years

  In the long run, lithium price changes still depend on whether the mismatch between supply and demand can be improved.

Jiangsha believes that if the impact of the epidemic is excluded, the overall market supply is still tight, so prices will not fall too much.

  "Temporary price declines may not necessarily be transformed into trends. Personally, I think the inflection point has not yet arrived. In the future, there is a high probability that it will be dominated by high fluctuations, ranging from 400,000 to 500,000." Mo Ke believes that the strong downstream market demand At present, there are no obvious signs of easing, and the increase in supply may not necessarily catch up with the expected growth rate of demand; in addition, lithium resource transactions are generally denominated in US dollars, and the current US CPI index is still at a high position, which means that The dollar could also depreciate.

  At present, upstream manufacturers are still enjoying the dividends of high-priced lithium mines.

Yahua Group, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Tibet Mining, Tianhua Chaojing and other companies have recently disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts. The pre-increase in net profit is more than 3 times, and some of them even reach 10 times.

  In the first three months of this year, the production and sales of power batteries are still growing rapidly.

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, domestic power battery production in March totaled 39.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 247.3% and a month-on-month increase of 23.3%; vehicle loading was 21.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 138.0% and a month-on-month increase of 56.6%.

  The market generally believes that there is no absolute supply gap for lithium ore, and the current price has deviates from the supply and demand side.

According to the estimates of Minmetals Securities, the global demand for lithium resources is expected to reach 750,000 tons of LCE, and the new supply is about 180,000 tons of LCE. The main source of supply is mature production expansion and resumption of production, which can theoretically just meet the new demand of global terminals, but The stocking effect of the industry chain makes the real demand greater than the estimated installed capacity demand.

  At the recent 100-person meeting on electric vehicles, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the price increase of power battery materials in this round is basically the same as the price increase of lithium resources in 2016-2018. Compared with the previous round of fluctuations, due to demand and expected growth Stronger, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, making prices more volatile.

It is expected that the balance of supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal after 2 to 3 years.

  Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also said at a recent press conference of the State Council Information Office that the development of domestic lithium, nickel and other resources will be moderately accelerated this year, and unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging will be cracked down.