Folding screen mobile phone market is growing rapidly

  Following OPPO Find N and Honor Magic V, on the evening of April 11, vivo released its first folding screen mobile phone, the X Fold.

So far, domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have basically entered the folding screen track.

  2021 is called "the first year of folding screens".

According to the "Market Tracking of Smartphone Models in the Fourth Quarter of 2021" released by the market research agency Omdia, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative global shipments of folding screen smartphones will reach 11.5 million units.

From the second half of 2021, the sales of folding screen mobile phones have begun to grow rapidly, and the annual shipment in 2021 will reach 9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 309%.

Experts believe that with the improvement of user acceptance and the maturity of related technologies in the industry, the domestic folding screen mobile phone market may usher in a new round of outbreaks in 2022, and the industry will usher in a critical year for scale.

  The "stepping stone" of the high-end market

  Folding screen mobile phones have become synonymous with high-end.

Liu Xu, general manager of CCID Consulting's Digital Economy Industry Research Center, said that in addition to high-end chips, other technologies have already been popularized and applied on low-end models, and it is difficult to support the improvement of mobile phone brands. Therefore, having folding screen technology has become a mobile phone An important means for the brand to "show muscles".

In addition, the current price of folding screen mobile phones is relatively high, and it has naturally become synonymous with "high-end".

  At the same time, the product form of the folding screen is also an attempt by mobile phone manufacturers to break through the limitations of the appearance and function of mobile phones.

Under the folding screen, the functions of the mobile phone are enlarged, and there are more abundant application scenarios, which meets the user's demand for screen size in large-screen applications such as video and games, thus becoming an important "stepping stone" for mobile phone manufacturers to seek market breakthroughs.

  Zhong Xinlong, a senior consultant at the Radio Research Institute of CCID think tank, believes that although the overall smartphone market shipments are currently declining, the size of the folding screen mobile phone market has grown rapidly, indicating that consumers generally accept the high premium and high positioning of folding screen mobile phones.

  The launch of folding screen mobile phones is essentially the behavior of manufacturers to impact the high-end mobile phone market.

Wang Bin, senior analyst of Zhongcheng Think Tank, believes that as the last mainstream mobile phone manufacturer to enter the folding screen mobile phone market in China, vivo entered the market at this time for two reasons. First, after major mobile phone manufacturers tested the folding screen mobile phone market last year, It provides some valuable experience for reference, and the time to enter the folding screen mobile phone market is relatively mature; the second is to have enough "chips" in the competition in the high-end market.

Nowadays, to occupy a place in the high-end mobile phone market, folding screen mobile phones have become a necessary means of "breaking the game".

  "vivo's performance in the smartphone market in recent years has been remarkable. In 2021, vivo's mobile phone will have a market share of 21.5% in the domestic market, ranking first in the market. Last year, its X70 Pro+ was priced at nearly 7,000 yuan and still in short supply. Yes. It is said that vivo already has the market foundation for price exploration. The release of vivo X Fold will help vivo further impact the high-end market and gain more market share." Liu Xu said.

  Break through the two bottlenecks

  "The popularity of folding screen mobile phones has a lot to do with the progress of the supply chain and technology. Folding screen mobile phones have always faced two major difficulties, one is the screen material, and the other is the hinge process. Most of the pain points of users are concentrated on screen creases and display failures. , fractures, etc. At present, both of these two major bottlenecks have broken through." Liu Xu said.

  For example, the vivo X Fold released this time, the floating mid-plate design brings a flatter and more durable folding screen, using ultra-thin flexible glass and internal and external 120 Hz dual-screen high-brush technology, wear resistance, heat resistance, light transmission are better.

  The OPPO Find N released in December last year uses a self-developed Seiko quasi-vertebral hinge, which can hover at multiple angles and steplessly while achieving fit, basically achieving a seamless invisible folding effect; the screen material adopts a new 12-layer composite structure. And ultra-thin flexible glass, with stronger puncture resistance and enhanced durability.

  According to Wang Bin, the existing folding screen mobile phone hinge adopts multi-angle hovering and folding technology, which can be flexibly opened and closed. Its magnetic support system ensures the safety of the device when it is fully folded; the main material of the flexible screen is durable Compared with the previous generation, the abrasion resistance, heat resistance and light transmittance are all qualitative leaps, which can bring better display effects while improving the reliability of the screen.

In addition, in the past two years, the software adaptation of major brands of folding screen mobile phones has also been significantly improved, and both interactive operations and multitasking have been realized.

  Zhang Yi, CEO of iiMedia Research Consulting Group, believes that there is still room for improvement in folding screen mobile phone technology: first, many users still report problems such as screen creases after one year of use, and second, the current overall price of folding screen mobile phones is still high.

  "At present, Apple is still waiting and watching, Honor and vivo have just entered the track, Xiaomi and OPPO have a small market share, and the two giants Samsung and Huawei are constantly improving their technologies and processes to overcome the pain points of user experience." Liu Xu said .

  Market size will continue to expand

  In 2021, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers will enter the folding screen market one after another. In addition to Samsung, Huawei and other brands that have already entered the market, in March 2021, Xiaomi released the folding screen mobile phone MIX Fold.

In December 2021, OPPO launched its first folding screen mobile phone, Find N.

In January this year, Honor released the Magic V, a folding screen phone.

Coupled with the release of vivo X Fold, the Android mobile phone camp has gathered in the folding screen product line, and the industry has ushered in a critical year for scale.

  "With the advancement of hardware supply, interaction capabilities, application ecology, etc., the folding screen mobile phone market will still be prosperous in 2022. It is estimated that in 2022, the global shipments of smart folding screen mobile phones may exceed 18 million units, achieving a successful By 2023, the size of the folding screen mobile phone market may sprint to 30 million units. Although compared with the size of the entire mobile phone market, the folding screen mobile phone market is still very small, but under the leadership of Samsung, Huawei and other brands, the folding screen The mobile phone market has completed the cultivation of consumers, and more and more people have begun to accept and even pursue this product." Liu Xu said.

  At present, manufacturers such as vivo and OPPO have lowered the price of folding screen mobile phones to about 8,000 yuan. How much room for price reductions will there be in the future?

Liu Xu predicts that according to the current pricing of folding screen mobile phones and the market rules of electronic products, the price reduction is inevitable, but it will not be soon. This year, folding screen mobile phones are still mainly in the high-end market. There won't be too many products to choose from.

At present, the mass production scale of folding screen mobile phones is not enough, the technology is still being explored, and the price is naturally relatively high.

After another 1 to 2 years, with the gradual release of flexible screen production capacity, the continuous reduction of costs and the continuous maturity of technology, the price of folding screen mobile phones will usher in a relatively large drop.

  Zhang Yi believes that at present, the price of folding screen mobile phones is more suitable for the gift market.

It is expected that in the second half of next year, the price of folding screen mobile phones will usher in a round of slight reduction.

  "This year's folding screen mobile phone market will still be a niche market, and the status of candy bar phones cannot be shaken for the time being. However, with the increase in the technological content of folding screen mobile phones, the recognition of such products by mass users will gradually increase, which will also It will further drive the improvement of the folding screen mobile phone industry chain and supply chain." Wang Bin said.