On the one hand, the price of the main raw materials for power batteries has risen across the board, and new energy vehicles have been "rising"; on the other hand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have both exceeded 1 million, and the market share has reached 19.3%... In the first quarter of this year, China's new energy vehicles not only continued The momentum of rapid growth has also seen some development characteristics and trends that are completely different from the past, which has aroused common attention both inside and outside the industry.
Thanks to the technological advancement of new energy vehicles, consumption upgrades, and the rise of green travel methods, the marketization of new energy vehicles has increased year by year, and the two-wheel drive of the market and policies has become more and more obvious.
By the end of 2021, the cumulative consumption of new energy vehicles will be about 1.6 trillion yuan, driving the output value of the upstream and downstream industry chains to about 4.8 trillion yuan, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by more than 100 million tons.
However, the development of new energy vehicles is also facing some new problems, and even triggered a "debate" of different views inside and outside the industry.
For example, some models still have some shortcomings in terms of quality and safety, low temperature adaptability, etc., and the integration and development of electrification, intelligence, and networking needs to continue to deepen.
Especially since the beginning of this year, due to the combination of factors such as subsidy decline and rising raw material prices, many companies have "queued up" to increase the sales price of new energy vehicles. At the same time, delays in the delivery of new vehicles have occurred.
There is also a view that under the background that the new energy vehicle industry is favored by the capital market, many companies have flocked to it, which will not only lead to disorderly competition in the market, but may also lead to excess capacity in the new energy vehicle industry.
The electric car track is hot, and it is not advisable to kill with a stick
"There will be a catastrophic overcapacity for new energy vehicles." Not long ago, at the performance conference, Tan Xuguang, chairman and CEO of Weichai Group, bluntly said, "In recent years, the new energy industry has been relatively lively, and the rush of companies has led to Disorderly competition. There are many companies involved in private activities, expanding their wealth through the capital market, resulting in disorderly capital expansion in the capital market for new energy.”
This is not the first time that the topic of "overcapacity of new energy vehicles" has appeared in people's field of vision.
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that problems such as blind investment and disorderly development of new energy vehicles exist to varying degrees, so new energy vehicles must be developed based on existing production capacity.
OEMs should focus on key layouts, and no new production capacity will be added until the existing bases reach a reasonable scale.
Lin Nianxiu proposed to guide industries to gather in regions and entities with good development foundation and full production capacity, focusing on the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions to create internationally competitive industrial clusters.
According to reports, the next step will be to strengthen the clean-up and rectification of new energy vehicle illegal projects, investigate and deal with violations such as construction without approval, construction in batches, construction while approval, etc., while regulating the merger and reorganization of vehicle enterprises, and vigorously promote backward enterprises and invalid capacity exit.
According to the forecast of CCID Research Institute, by 2025, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to reach 36.61 million units, while the market sales volume is about 5.3 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is less than 15%.
"To judge whether the production capacity of new energy vehicles is excessive, it depends not only on the real demand in the market, but also on whether the technology and resources behind the products are sufficient to support." Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that since last year, new The production and sales of energy vehicles continued to rise, but a large part of it was because enterprises overdrafted the sales of new energy vehicles ahead of schedule in consideration of stricter industrial policies such as environmental protection.
Cao Guangping believes that the growth of production and sales should be based on technological progress.
"For example, if the level of battery technology improves by 100%, it is reasonable for the sales of new energy vehicles to double accordingly. The soaring sales must be supported by good technology and good products, otherwise it may be a bubble-like prosperity."
"It is too early to draw the conclusion of 'catastrophic overcapacity of new energy vehicles'." Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Business School, emphasized that there are certain technical barriers and quasi-standards. In industries with entry barriers, new energy vehicles generally do not experience excess production capacity quickly. What’s more, due to the impact of international emergencies, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other commodities and chemical raw materials have fluctuated recently, which will restrict the production capacity of new energy vehicles.
In Pan Helin's view, new energy vehicles have some unique advantages for consumers, such as the cost of vehicle use and the level of vehicle intelligence, so it is an inevitable trend for them to replace traditional fuel vehicles.
"Take the cost of use as an example, a pure electric vehicle runs four or five hundred kilometers, and the cost of use is less than 100 yuan. At the same time, its cost of purchase tax and vehicle maintenance is also lower. Considering the current high oil prices, electric vehicles The car is obviously more economical and affordable.”
A set of comparative data published by the National Development and Reform Commission is sufficient to verify this view.
Compared with the initial period of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of private consumption of new energy vehicles has increased from 47% to 78%, and the proportion of private consumption in non-restricted cities has increased from 40% to 70%.
"There is still a long way to go before new energy vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles, and the market is not yet saturated. On the whole, it is too early to judge the overcapacity of new energy vehicles." Pan Helin reminded.
Similar to traditional fuel vehicles, smartphones and other markets, the "Matthew effect" of the new energy vehicle industry is becoming more and more obvious.
During the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress this year, Wang Fengying, deputy to the National People's Congress and president of Great Wall Motors, put forward in the "Suggestions on Promoting the Improvement of Capacity Utilization Rate of China's Auto Industry" that firstly, it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of regional aggregation and make full use of the existing production capacity to expand and strengthen the national auto industry. Second, it is necessary to coordinate the development of idle production capacity, encourage mergers and reorganizations, and accelerate the construction of smart factories; thirdly, it is necessary to strengthen supervision and establish an exit mechanism to avoid waste of resources; finally, it is necessary to promote domestic and international dual circulation, and encourage Chinese car companies to "go global" to expand overseas. market.
"Market competition is the survival of the fittest, and companies that are eliminated or on the verge of elimination have vacant production capacity and cannot operate. This is also an inevitable phenomenon in the process of market development." Yang Xiaolin, a senior media person and an analyst in the automotive industry, told reporters that it is precisely because of the new energy in recent years. Automobile production and sales are booming, and both in the policy field and the capital market have received a lot of inclination, and companies are optimistic about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and they all believe that they will be the final winner on this track.
Yang Xiaolin believes that from the blossoming of new energy vehicles in the initial stage, to the defeat of some enterprises after entering the knockout stage, the market concentration has gradually increased, which is a normal phenomenon of industrial development and market competition.
In fact, it is precisely in the fierce competition on the new energy vehicle track that many excellent Chinese brands have taken advantage of the momentum and achieved milestone new breakthroughs.
Don't let the price increase of raw materials block the road of battery technology innovation
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first quarter of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, both exceeding one million units, with a market share of 19.3%. The strategic leading role of new energy vehicles was further highlighted.
At the same time, the market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles has increased significantly.
It is predicted that the market share of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 70% in 2030, while the market share of Chinese auto brands is expected to reach 60%.
"Last year, the development of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, and the pace of industry changes in the future may be faster than expected." Recently, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., publicly stated that with the rapid iterative progress of technology and products Performance, styling, noise, acceleration, ride comfort, intelligence, and cost of use have surpassed traditional fuel vehicles in an all-round way. The price has also begun to become competitive, and the industry's endogenous driving force has continued to increase.
In 2021, with technological achievements such as blade battery, DM-i super hybrid, and e-platform 3.0, BYD adheres to the "two-legged" walk of pure electric and plug-in hybrid, making the annual sales of new energy vehicles exceed 600,000 units, a year-on-year increase. An increase of 220%, ranking first for 9 consecutive years.
At the beginning of April this year, BYD became the first car company in the world to officially stop the production of fuel vehicles.
"The speed and efficiency of new things in the Chinese market are changing faster than in foreign countries. This year is a critical year for new energy vehicles to take advantage of the trend and accelerate the change. The faster the industry grows, the more it is necessary to be prepared for danger and seek progress while maintaining stability. Considering complex factors, we insist on solving development problems with technological innovation." Wang Chuanfu admitted that behind the explosive growth of the market, the new energy vehicle industry is facing severe challenges such as the intensification of the epidemic, skyrocketing raw material prices, and supply chain instability.
"The soaring price of raw materials for power batteries is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome. We recommend comprehensively sorting out the layout and production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increasing domestic mining and foreign imports, maintaining market supply and demand, stabilizing price expectations, and promoting the healthy and safe development of the industry." Wang Chuanfu said It is impossible for China to go from being stuck by oil in the era of fuel vehicles to being stuck by metal cobalt and metal nickel in the era of electric vehicles.
At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022), Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the main reasons for the increase in the price of raw materials for power batteries this year are the growth in demand for complete vehicles and higher expectations for batteries. Expand production capacity and increase reserves.
In addition, supply delays, the impact of the epidemic affecting the production of lithium resources, and the lack of transportation capacity have also magnified the contradiction between supply and demand.
He analyzed that this round of price increases was basically the same as the reason for the increase in lithium resources from 2016 to 2018.
"At that time, my country's new energy vehicles also led to the process of rising lithium prices from the incubation period to the growth period. Now it is such a process from the growth period to the rapid growth period. It's just that this time is stronger than the last time, plus the impact of the epidemic. , so the price of raw materials has risen even more.”
Ouyang Minggao judged that the increase in demand brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary, and with the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it will gradually return to the basic demand side.
"It is expected that a complete balance of supply and demand may be restored in two or three years." He also suggested that, for supply security, effective measures should be taken to combat hoarding and curb short-term sharp fluctuations in nickel prices, so as to avoid this year's sales of new energy vehicles from being affected.
Based on industry investment information forecasts, my country's battery production capacity may reach 1.5 billion kWh (1500 GWh) in 2023, 3 billion kWh in 2025, and battery shipments are expected to reach 1,200 GWh in 2025, of which about 70 to 80 percent It will be used in the domestic market, and the rest will be exported to overseas markets.
Xin Guobin, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries requires great attention and careful study and resolution.
He said that moderately speed up the development of domestic resources, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as speculation, guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to strengthen cooperation and common development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.
As an important pillar of the national economy, the steady growth of the automobile industry last year provided strong support for boosting my country's industrial economy.
In particular, new breakthroughs have been made in the development of new energy vehicles in my country, which has become a new highlight of the high-quality development of the automobile industry.
Statistics show that by the end of the first quarter of this year, the cumulative promotion of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to exceed 10 million.
In addition, new progress has been made in the key technologies of new energy vehicles. Chinese companies will obtain more than 30,000 patents related to new energy vehicles in 2021, accounting for 70% of the world's total.
Of course, these achievements are not achieved in a day, and it does not mean that the relevant companies can rest on their laurels, but need to maintain a firm "long-termism" for their goals.
Since taking the lead in pressing the start button for the industrialization of new energy vehicles in 2012, China has become a world-recognized new energy vehicle powerhouse and one of the most active countries in technological innovation.
Today, there is a shortage of automotive chips and rising prices of raw materials. However, with the help of the new energy vehicle track, China still has a long-term window to become an automotive powerhouse, and the market and consumers are quietly waiting for the next winner.
China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily reporter Xu Yajie Source: China Youth Daily