How far is the "tram" to replace the "oil car"?


  The growth rate of new energy vehicles is the highest in the industry, and car companies that stick to fuel vehicles are also deploying new energy vehicles

In less than a year, BYD's attitude towards fuel vehicles has undergone a dramatic change.

  In June 2021, in response to the news of the discontinuation of fuel vehicles, BYD said, "There is currently no such plan." However, in the past 9 months alone, BYD has changed its mind, and the speed at which it stopped production of fuel vehicles was unexpected.

  At the same time, more and more car companies have released timetables for "banning combustion", but there are still some car companies that have not yet specified the date for the complete suspension of sales or production of fuel vehicles.

  From the perspective of domestic car companies, only Changan, BAIC and Haima Automobile have clearly proposed to ban combustion. However, at the Changan Automobile Technology Ecological Conference in 2021, Changan Automobile stated that it plans to account for 35% of the sales of new energy vehicles by 2025. By 2030, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for 60%.

FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor, SAIC Group, GAC Group, etc. have not set a clear timetable for 100% combustion ban.

In addition, other well-known car companies such as Geely and Great Wall have not made a clear statement.

What are these car companies sticking to?

  Under the general trend of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, will "stop production and sales of fuel vehicles" become a trend in the development of the automobile industry?

How far will it be for new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles?

  The key time point for the transformation of auto companies in 2025

  The transformation of new energy vehicles is imminent.

Under the competition of Tesla, BYD, and "Wei Xiaoli", mainstream traditional vehicle companies with huge fuel vehicles have no time to hesitate and tangle, and have successively formulated their own transformation timetables.

  The Beijing News Shell Finance reporter found that in addition to BYD, there are currently domestic independent brands such as BAIC Group and Changan Automobile, as well as many international brands such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Honda.

Among them, most of the domestic auto brands will stop production or stop selling fuel vehicles in 2025, and most of the international auto brands will be around 2030.

  As early as October 2017, Changan Automobile announced the "Shangri-La Plan", planning to invest more than 100 billion yuan in the new energy field in the next 8 years, and will completely stop the sale of traditional fuel vehicles by 2025.

  However, at the Changan Automobile Technology Ecological Conference held in 2021, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said that Changan Automobile plans to achieve 3 million brand sales by 2025, of which new energy accounts for 35%; A world-class brand, the sales volume will reach 4.5 million, and the proportion of new energy will reach 60%.

  Following Changan's announcement of the timetable for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles, BAIC Group, an independent car company, announced that it will completely stop the production and sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles of its own brands in China by 2025.

  Haima Automobile plans to completely phase out fuel vehicles by 2025.

  However, for any car company, transformation cannot be accomplished overnight, and the confidence of "cutting oil" needs to be based on multiple considerations such as market sales, profit composition, brand positioning and technical support.

Although FAW, SAIC, Geely and other seven domestic mainstream car companies have not clearly stated the specific time for the "burning ban", the electrification transformation is accelerating, and each has given a sales target for 2025.

  Great Wall Motors is the most "ambitious".

In June 2021, Great Wall Motor proposed in the "2025 Strategy" released at the 8th Science and Technology Festival that by 2025, Great Wall Motor will achieve an operating income of more than 600 billion yuan and annual global sales of 4 million vehicles, 80% of which are new energy sources. Cars (ie 3.2 million).

  "In order to achieve this goal, we will continue to invest heavily in R&D. In the next five years, the cumulative R&D investment will reach 100 billion yuan." Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor, revealed that in the next five years, Great Wall Motor's R&D investment will focus on pure New energy fields such as electric power, hydrogen energy, and hybrid power, and key core technology fields such as chips and third-generation semiconductors such as silicon carbide.

  The "Smart Geely 2025" strategy released by Geely Automobile proposes that by 2025, the total sales volume of the group will reach 3.65 million units, of which the sales volume of new energy products will reach 900,000 units, accounting for 30%.

In addition to the Krypton brand (target 650,000 vehicles), the overall sales volume of Geely's new energy products will exceed 40%.

  SAIC plans to achieve sales of more than 2.7 million new energy vehicles by 2025, accounting for no less than 32% of SAIC's total vehicle sales.

GAC's figure is 25%, FAW is 20%, and Changan (excluding joint venture brands) is 35%.

  Changan Automobile proposed that the Changan brand will achieve annual sales of 3 million vehicles in 2025, of which the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 35%, or 1.05 million vehicles.

In 2030, the company plans to increase sales to 4.5 million vehicles, with new energy accounting for 60%.

  GAC Group plans to achieve vehicle sales of 3.5 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 25% of the total; of which, sales of self-owned brands will reach 1 million units, fully electrification, and strive for new energy vehicles to account for 50% of self-owned brands.

  During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, FAW Group will launch more than 50 new energy models, including more than 30 self-owned brands.

The goal is to account for more than 20% of the sales of new energy vehicles in 2025.

  Similarly, Dongfeng Motor also plans to have sales of new energy vehicles account for more than 20% of the company's total sales by 2025, helping to achieve the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".

  Among overseas car companies, the German brand Volkswagen has clearly stated that it "will withdraw from the European internal combustion engine market between 2033 and 2035".

Mercedes-Benz plans to be ready for full electrification in markets where conditions permit by 2030; BMW plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in the EU starting in 2030.

  Volvo Cars is committed to becoming a pure electric luxury car company by 2030; Ford Motor will realize full electrification of new cars sold in Europe in 2030; General Motors plans to stop selling fuel vehicles from 2035 and transition its products to zero-emission vehicles in the same year , and pure electric vehicles.

Honda plans to stop selling gasoline vehicles in 2040.

  The development speed of new energy vehicles is "unimaginable"

  Some industry analysts believe that behind the completion of the production of fuel vehicles is the rapid progress of new energy vehicles in technology, market and other fields.

  With the advantages of blade battery, DM-i hybrid technology, e-platform 3.0 and other fields, BYD's new energy vehicle sales continued to grow, and its proportion continued to increase.

  In 2021, BYD's annual cumulative sales volume will be 740,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.34%.

Among them, new energy vehicles became the main force of growth, with annual sales of 603,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 218.3%, accounting for 81.58% of the total annual sales volume, while the annual sales of fuel vehicles was only 136,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 42.54%.

  From January to March 2022, the production and sales volume of BYD's new energy vehicles was 287,530 and 286,329 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 416.96% and 422.97%.

The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 98.27% of the total sales.

  Looking at the global new energy market, BYD's sales can compete with Tesla.

  At the same time, the domestic new energy vehicle market is also growing rapidly.

In 2021, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles will be 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, and the penetration rate will be 14.8%, which is a significant increase from the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020.

  Entering 2022, sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow significantly.

  According to data from the Passenger Federation, in the first quarter of this year, the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 146.6%; the retail penetration rate reached 21.7%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points from the first quarter of last year.

  "According to the speed of industry change last year, if it is calculated at constant speed, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to reach 35% by the end of this year." Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD, said that the popularization of new energy vehicles is the general trend.

  In his view, if 10 years ago, the development of new energy vehicles was mainly driven by policies; 3-5 years ago, it was the two-wheel drive of "policy + market", then the current market drive accounted for 70%, and the policy drive was also 30%.

  Zhang Yongwei, vice-chairman and secretary-general of China Electric Vehicle Association of 100, believes that the only direction for global automobile development is new energy, or electrification, which has become the consensus of countries and enterprises around the world.

Zhang Yongwei said, "In the past, many countries have disputed and swayed about this point, while China's new energy vehicle industry has been growing and has continued to step up to a new level. After several years of development, the irreversible trend of new energy has basically been form."

  Based on the forecast of the 100 People's Association, the annual sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 5 million in 2022, and at least 7 million in 2025, with an optimistic estimate of 9 to 10 million.

  "It only takes a few years from 1 million vehicles to 10 million vehicles, and this speed has created the world's new energy 'industry'. ." Zhang Yongwei said.

  The "temptation" of the high market value of pure electric car companies

  Riding on the east wind of new energy vehicles, the performance of new energy vehicle companies in the capital market is particularly outstanding.

  On October 25, 2021, the old American car rental giant Hertz placed an order for 100,000 vehicles from Tesla. Since then, Tesla's stock price has soared, breaking through trillions of dollars.

At the close on November 1, Tesla surged 8.49%, and its market value exceeded $1.21 trillion in one fell swoop.

Following Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and other companies, Tesla has become the seventh listed company in the history of the US stock market with a market value of more than one trillion US dollars.

  As of November 5, the highest price of Tesla’s stock price was $1,239.87. According to the closing price of $1,222.09 at the time, Tesla’s market value was as high as $1,227.302 billion.

  In February 2022, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised his price target on Tesla to $1,350 from $1,300 and maintained an "overweight" rating on the stock.

The analyst expects Tesla to deliver 1.58 million vehicles in 2022, which would represent a 69% increase over 2021.

Potter said the Tesla Model Y is the biggest growth driver in the near term.

  As of April 12, 2022, Tesla's stock price has risen back above $1 trillion.

  In August 2021, BYD's total market value exceeded 900 billion yuan for the first time.

Subsequently, many institutions raised BYD's target price one after another, and many brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Changjiang Securities, and Huaxi Securities gave buy or overweight ratings.

  As of December 31, 2021, BYD ranked first in the market value list of Chinese car companies in 2021 with 780.536 billion yuan, with a total market value of 47.25% year-on-year.

  Tianfeng Securities said that BYD's new energy vehicle business has developed rapidly and has not yet been fully profitable. It is suitable for the valuation of market-to-sales ratio. Comparing the market-to-sales ratio of Xpeng Motors, Lili Automobile and other car companies, it can give BYD's auto business a market-to-sales ratio of 5.5 times. .

It is estimated that BYD's auto business revenue in 2022 will reach 202.4 billion yuan, a growth rate of 91.2%.

  Not only BYD, but Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other new energy car companies have also led the way in their share prices.

  The same is true for NIO shares.

In July 2020, Tencent Holdings became the second largest shareholder of NIO. Affected by this, the market value of NIO was close to US$18 billion, a record high.

  By October 2021, the market value of NIO has soared to US$28.57 billion, surpassing Ford, an old American car company, and becoming a symbolic node of the new car-making force.

  In April 2022, the market value of NIO continued to hit new highs, breaking the US$100 billion mark, and even surpassing Volkswagen, becoming the third-largest company in terms of market value among global car companies, second only to Tesla and Toyota.

  Ford was surpassed not only by Weilai, but also by Xiaopeng.

In November 2020, the total market value of Xiaopeng Motors reached 32.19 billion US dollars, ranking 14th among global auto companies, one step away from Ford, and then surpassed Ford in market value.

  Will traditional fuel vehicles withdraw from the stage of history in a short period of time?

  When BYD and others sounded the "no-burning" horn, when will fuel vehicles withdraw from the stage of history?

Many experts said in interviews that although new energy vehicles are rising rapidly, there is still a significant gap between the current sales and comparison of fuel vehicles, and traditional fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the historical stage in a short period of time.

  "It is safe to say that the internal combustion engine will not withdraw from the market soon," Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the China Society of Automotive Engineers and honorary chairman of the China Automotive Talent Research Association, said in an interview with the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that BYD stopped producing fuel. The car is a case with specific historical reasons and individual factors of the enterprise, which does not represent the complete withdrawal of the internal combustion engine in the whole industry.

  Fu Yuwu analyzed that although BYD has produced fuel vehicles in history, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are the main labels and revenue pillars of the company.

From a general perspective, BYD's "fuel cut-off" does indeed represent the general direction of the electrification transformation of the auto industry, and represents that the industry has entered a new era, but such a transformation is also in line with BYD's consistent strategic thinking and historical accumulation, and does not represent all vehicles. The current choice of enterprises, "We still need a lot of fuel vehicles in our current society. Although the general direction is to replace fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, this is a gradual process."

  In fact, my country's new energy vehicle industry planning is also divided into stages.

  In November 2020, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the State Council shows that by 2025, the average power consumption of new pure electric passenger vehicles will be reduced to 12.0 kWh/100 kilometers, and new energy vehicles will be reduced to 12.0 kWh/100 kilometers. The sales volume will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars, and highly autonomous vehicles will be commercialized in limited areas and specific scenarios.

  By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, vehicles in the public sector will be fully electrified, fuel cell vehicles will be commercialized, and highly autonomous vehicles will achieve large-scale applications, effectively promoting energy conservation and emission reduction levels and social operation efficiency. promote.

  "The global auto industry is pursuing an electrification transformation strategy. This is a historic change and a major industrial restructuring." Fu Yuwu said that now global auto companies have come up with electrification timetables, and Chinese local companies also have their own layout, but for quite some time before 2035, we will still have to "walk on two legs", that is, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will walk on two legs. In the future, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will coexist and coexist. era of development.

  Zhang Xiang, an automobile industry analyst, believes that "because the current new energy vehicle technology is still immature, fuel vehicles will not be withdrawn from the stage of history soon." He said that at present, new energy vehicles still have short cruising range, poor charging experience, and winter. The battery mileage decays quickly and the residual value is low.

  Zhang Hong, secretary general of the new energy vehicle branch of China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview with Shell Finance reporters that whether it is because of the heavy traffic flow during the holidays or the cold climate in the north, when new energy vehicles are powered on, there are still few charging facilities, slow charging, and poor facilities. Issues such as incompatibility of payment methods.

It can be said that the growth of new energy vehicle charging facilities has not kept up with the growth of new energy vehicle sales.

If the sales of new energy vehicles still have room to rise, the problem of imbalance between supply and demand of charging facilities may be more serious.

  Zhang Hong said that to solve the difficulty of charging, the core is to speed up the construction of new energy vehicle charging facilities.

For example, increase the subsidy policy for the construction of charging piles to promote charging facility manufacturers or car companies to speed up the popularization of charging facilities; for car companies that have built their own brand charging or battery swap facilities around the expressway, they can comprehensively consider and open the door to accept other brands. to relieve the pressure of insufficient charging facilities.

  When talking about the basic pattern of the future automobile power route, Zhang Xiang believes that a diversified power pattern will be ushered in.

He said that in addition to pure electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid, he is also optimistic about the general hybrid (HEV) technology route.

"In addition, serial HEVs, such as Nissan's e-POWER, 48V mild hybrid, and extended-range technology routes, will also have a certain market share."

  Previously, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, pointed out that considering the stability and balance of the energy structure, the development of new energy vehicles should still follow the "Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization" and "Opinions". The requirements of the Carbon Peak Action Plan by 2030 have been steadily achieved.

"A radical one-size-fits-all policy to promote the development of new energy should not appear, so we believe that it is a reasonable choice not to introduce a nationwide timetable for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles."

  Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Zhang Binglinzi

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