Retiring at 62, 64 or 65, what impact does it have economically?

• The pension reform proposed by Emmanuel Macron in the event of a second term could well change the minimum age of departure.

• The candidate has indeed not closed the door to a reduction in the retirement age from 65 to 64 years.

• What economic consequences would this kind of change have?

  At 65, therefore, but also at 64, or even at 62?

Emmanuel Macron, qualified for the second round of the presidential election, indicated that he could water down his wine on the main reform announced in the event of a second term: the pension reform, which would notably increase the retirement age to 65 .

Asked Monday about this controversial measure, which he was unable to complete during his five-year term, the candidate indicated that he was "ready to change the relationship to time and say that we do not necessarily a reform until 2030, if I feel too much anxiety among people.

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Another change in a once intangible doctrine, "65 is not a dogma", added the president, "opening the door" to retirement at 64 if society was too tense on the subject.

In this case, "it will be necessary to stop in 2027, and not to preempt the continuation" of the reform, he specified, the project aiming to delay the age of departure by 4 months per year from 2023. President and Prime Minister Jean Castex are also planning a referendum on the subject.

So your retirement, do you prefer it at 62, 64 or 65?

takes stock of the different scenarios.

Retirement at age 62

For one reason or another, let's imagine that the pension reform is not implemented.

The retirement age therefore remains at 62 years.

According to the 2021 annual report of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR), “even without reform, the weight of pensions in GDP will decline in the coming years”.

The regime should return to a “controlled trajectory by 2070”, where the system would be on average in surplus by 0.4% of GDP, i.e. a level similar to 2019, before the health crisis.

This improvement is explained by a drop in the gain in life expectancy over the period, in the short term by the excess mortality due to Covid-19, as well as the upward revision of GDP, specifies the report.

“There is therefore no need to reform pensions to save them financially”, underlines Michaël Zemmour, lecturer in economics at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and co-author of

(La Découverte, 2021 ).

“In reality, the gains from a possible reform would be used to reduce public spending, not to keep the system alive,” continues the expert.

According to a 2019 report by DREES, “the average economic retirement age is 62 years and 2 months for direct pensioners residing in France.

It has been increasing since 2010 (+1 year and 8 months), that is to say just before the entry into force of the pension reform of the same year”.

Henri Sterdyniak, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), qualifies by recalling that "the more the years pass, the later people start work, and therefore leave after 62 years to have the full rate, the latter requiring 42 years of activity, and soon 43. In reality, retirement will increasingly have to be brought forward if you want to receive a full pension.

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Retirement at age 64

Frédéric Bizard, health economist, recalls the figures: “With the advancement of the working age, the effective age for receiving the full rate should increase to 64 years by 2030. Retirement at 64 so wouldn't fundamentally change much, it would just follow the trend.

“According to a COR report in 2019, “most policyholders (…) conform to a social norm: leave at the full rate.

Around eight out of ten retirees leave under these conditions”.

But Michaël Zemmour disputes: “With retirement at 62, we leave the choice to people, quite simply.

You may have the right to leave earlier, without a full rate.

All the more so, he says, since “retirement is also about preserving your health.

Having the choice to leave early can take on more than economic importance”.

According to a note from January 2022 sent to the COR, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 would have led to a gain of 0.6 points in GDP in 2019.

Gain to be put into perspective since this two-year increase would also have led to an increase in expenditure on social benefits (excluding pensions and unemployment insurance) by 0.14 point of GDP (3.6 billion euros) relating in particular to retirement pensions. disability, social minima and daily social security allowances.

“Each time we raise the retirement age by one year, we save around 8 to 10 billion euros,” comments Frédéric Bizard.

But you have to withdraw about 25 to 30% of these savings because of the additional cost for social benefits”.

Retirement at age 65

A transition from retirement to 65 would save 1.2 points of GDP, according to the COR.

But in reality, it is difficult to see clearly, admits Henri Sterdyniak: "Everything will depend on the labor market, impossible to predict since we are talking about 2030. In the event of full employment, this reform allows a lot of pension savings while by increasing the number of social security contributions.

But in the event of high unemployment, this means more social expenditure to pay.

We can also imagine that a person staying longer in the job blocks this job for a young person, which can also be costly economically.

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The problem is already there: according to a Dares study dated December 2021, the activity rate of 55-64 year olds in France in 2020 is 5.8 points lower than that of the European Union, with 56% employment rate.

"If we shift the retirement age, a whole change of society is needed, with measures to facilitate the employment of seniors, full employment policies...", continues Frédéric Bizard.

Choice of society that defends itself, according to the economist: “France currently spends 13.7% of its GDP on pensions, against 8% on average in OECD countries.

We can absolutely think that it is too much and that this money could be used to finance justice, national education, health... It just needs to be justified » The retirement age, definitely a real choice of society.

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• Economy

• Presidential election 2022

• Elections

• Emmanuel Macron

• Pension reform

• Retirement

• Money