Yao Jingyuan's "stable" word is in the first place, and it is inseparable from the healthy development of real estate

  Yao Jingyuan

  Special Researcher of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, Former Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics

  In 2021, China's economy has achieved hard-won achievements.

Whether it is the economic growth rate, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and the balance of payments, the indicators set at the beginning of the year have all exceeded expectations.

The expected economic growth rate last year was 6%, but it actually reached 8.1%.

Such a growth rate ranks among the best among the world's major economies.

  Last year, China's economy faced multiple challenges from the internal and external environment.

From an external point of view, the spread of the epidemic, virus mutation, trade protectionism and unilateralism; from an internal point of view, the spread of the epidemic, the sudden occurrence of natural disasters, and the superimposition of deep-seated structural and cyclical problems in the Chinese economy. The downward pressure on the economy has increased. In the first quarter of last year, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year, the second quarter was 7.9%, the third quarter was 4.9%, and the fourth quarter was only 4%.

Faced with the downward pressure on the economy, this year's GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5%. The overall keynote is to maintain stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, and stabilize the overall economic market.

  Facing triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations

  In terms of demand contraction, it is mainly domestic demand contraction, the so-called domestic demand, that is, investment + consumption.

From the perspective of consumption, the main areas hit by the current epidemic are consumption, such as tourism, catering, and accommodation.

Last year, the total retail sales of goods in the whole society in China increased by 12.5% ​​year-on-year.

But in December last year, it was only 1.7%, which is equivalent to no growth if the price factor is taken into account.

  From the perspective of investment, investment is mainly divided into three parts: one is infrastructure investment, the other is industrial investment, and the third is real estate.

Last year, the export situation was good, which stimulated industrial investment, and the situation was good.

But infrastructure and real estate investments have fallen short.

  Infrastructure investment includes high-speed railways, highways, the management of large rivers, farmland water conservancy facilities, and urban above-ground and underground infrastructure construction. In the past, infrastructure investment increased by 20%-30%, and last year increased by 0.4%.

Last year, local governments planned to issue 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds, but only 1.8 trillion yuan was issued in August. In fact, infrastructure investment is in a state of negative growth.

  In terms of real estate, real estate investment grew by 4.4% in December last year, compared with 8.8% in September, and the three-month growth rate halved.

Looking at the downward pressure on real estate investment, there are two important indicators. One is the newly started area. Last year, the newly started area nationwide was 1.99 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, and it has been declining for three consecutive years.

The other is the land acquisition area, which fell by 15.5% year-on-year last year.

The reduction of land transfer fees has a direct impact on local fiscal revenue.

At present, many urban land auctions have passed in because of the shrinking demand for land, which affects the economic downturn.

  It is worth noting that the price of upstream raw materials soared last year. The PPI (Production Price Index) was 0.3% in January last year and increased to 15% in October. Coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical raw materials are all rising, and coal prices have risen. affect the power supply.

  Demand contraction and supply shocks directly lead to weaker expectations.

In order to overcome the triple pressure, China’s economy should, on the premise of adhering to the supply-side structural reform, take measures from the perspective of expanding demand: one is to increase investment in infrastructure, the other is to promote consumption, and the third is to reduce taxes and fees for enterprises to stimulate the vitality of market players .

Last year, tax and fee reductions for enterprises reached 1.1 trillion yuan. In this year's government work report, it was proposed to reduce taxes and fees by 2.5 trillion yuan, more than double that of last year.

  Real estate is an important part of stabilizing the economy

  This year's "Government Work Report" proposed that the expected economic growth target is a GDP growth of 5.5%. The setting of this target mainly considers the needs of stabilizing employment, protecting people's livelihood, and preventing risks.

In terms of employment, there are 10.76 million college graduates this year. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the employment pressure is unprecedented.

Stabilizing employment requires steady growth, which is fundamental to stabilizing market players and companies, including real estate companies.

  The GDP growth rate of 5.5% is in line with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the first stage of the second centenary goal.

  It is not easy to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.5% this year. It is necessary to maintain stability in the word, and stabilize investment, consumption, and external demand. Steady investment includes stabilizing real estate.

  Investment, consumption and exports are the "troika" that drives economic growth.

The Central Economic Work Conference has made precise positioning for each carriage: give full play to the "basic" role of consumption in economic growth, the "pulling" role of exports to economic growth, and the "key" role of investment in economic growth.

This also means that, in the face of economic downturn, the government will make counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the trend, and investment will have to play a key role.

  From the perspective of the "troika", the current import and export face many uncertain factors, which are greatly affected by the international situation, such as geopolitics and the epidemic. In terms of consumption, the epidemic is precisely the factor that has the greatest impact on consumption.

It is the most feasible way to invest in it.

Therefore, investment has become an important carriage driving economic growth.

  In the investment, including infrastructure investment, industrial investment, real estate investment, of which real estate is an important part.

The real estate industry is related to more than 60 industries, including steel, building materials, cement, etc., which can drive and stabilize these industries. Therefore, stabilizing the real estate industry is an important part of stabilizing the economic market.

  From the current point of view, fluctuations in real estate are not conducive to macroeconomic stability, so this year's "Government Work Report" proposed three goals for real estate: stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices, and stabilizing expectations.

Land prices will cause fluctuations in housing prices, while stabilizing expectations is to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

  The real estate regulation policy aims to maintain steady growth of real estate investment, which is also an important part of stabilizing the economic market.

  Seeking progress while maintaining stability, the real estate industry must develop with high quality

  The Central Economic Work Conference clarified that "stability is the first word", and "stable" does not mean static passive "stable", but refers to the stable growth rate, which still needs to be stable and progress.

That is, by promoting reforms, promoting the healthy development of real estate and realizing a virtuous circle.

  From the current point of view, China has started a new journey of the second centenary goal, and the real estate industry is also one of its important contents to meet the people's needs for a better life.

The main contradiction in our society has been transformed into "the contradiction between the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development".

Realizing a good life requires living, and living needs cannot be separated from the healthy development of the real estate industry.

  In the past, the real estate industry has made great achievements in meeting people's most basic material needs. Before the reform and opening up, the per capita living area was only 4 square meters, and now the per capita living area has increased to 40 square meters.

Under China's second centenary goal, the real estate industry has put livability, greenness and intelligence in a crucial position, and started new explorations to solve people's needs for a better life.

  In the new historical period, the task before the real estate industry has also changed from the high-speed growth in the past to high-quality development.

  The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that "long-term goals cannot be short-term, system goals cannot be fragmented, and protracted wars cannot be made into surprise battles."

This sentence is also applicable to solving the current problems of the real estate industry, hoping to find new ideas for promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry and forming a virtuous circle.

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