A key step has been taken in loosening restrictions on purchases and sales in many places,
while adhering to the keynote of "housing and not speculating", from reducing the down payment ratio to relaxing the "five restrictions", more than 60 cities have issued easing policies since the beginning of this year.
One city, one policy
Since the beginning of this year, the regulation of the property market in various places has gradually loosened.
Up to now, more than 60 cities have issued easing policies, ranging from reducing down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates, relaxing provident fund loan requirements, relaxing settlement policies, issuing house purchase subsidies, and relaxing the "five restrictions" policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions. ...From one-way policies to comprehensive policies, from third- and fourth-tier cities to second-tier cities represented by Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Qingdao, Harbin, and Suzhou, real estate regulation has entered a new stage.
Steady growth is the top priority of the macro economy this year. As a pillar industry in my country, real estate will inevitably become an important starting point for preventing risks, safeguarding people's livelihood, and stabilizing growth.
It is worth noting that, under the keynote of "housing, not speculating," and facing the major differences in the real estate market in different regions of my country, how can each city better implement "one city, one policy"?
How should the regulation of hotspot cities and non-hotspot cities go?
How to grasp the scale of policy easing?
From reducing down payment to relaxing purchase and sales restrictions
Since the end of February this year, many cities have reduced the down payment and mortgage interest rates. For example, some banks in Wenzhou, Nantong, Foshan, Chongqing and other regions have lowered the down payment ratio for the first home, and Fuzhou, Jinzhong, Nanning and other regions have lowered the housing provident fund down payment ratio.
Taking Foshan as an example, some banks have a minimum down payment ratio of 20% for the first home in the non-restricted areas.
In Zhumadian, the down payment ratio for the purchase of second-hand housing is 30%, and the commercial loan for some new housing projects is subject to a down payment ratio of 20%.
At the same time, mortgage interest rates in many cities have been adjusted to varying degrees.
The loan interest rate for the first home in Hangzhou has generally been lowered from 5.7% to 5.3%, and the loan interest rate for the second home has been lowered from 5.9% to 5.5%; some banks in Guangzhou and Suzhou have the lowest home loan interest rate of 4.6%.
In some cities, there are also measures such as granting housing purchase subsidies, liberalizing the settlement policy, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans.
However, the "five restrictions" policy, which has a greater impact on the property market, is showing signs of loosening, which is more signaling significance.
In the deregulation of provincial capital cities, Zhengzhou became the first to break the situation.
On March 1, Zhengzhou issued a new real estate policy, which clearly stipulates that if children and close relatives work and live in Zhengzhou, the elderly are encouraged to come to Zhengzhou to invest in their relatives for the elderly, and they are allowed to rely on their families to buy a new house.
A more critical one is that for families who own a house and have paid off the corresponding housing loan, and apply for a loan to buy ordinary commercial housing again in order to improve their living conditions, banking financial institutions implement the first-home loan policy.
This means that Zhengzhou has cancelled the "recognizing house and recognizing loan".
Subsequently, Lanzhou's real estate regulation policy has also been loosened. In addition to the targeted relaxation of purchase restrictions through the two dimensions of the elderly and young children, it has also targeted the cancellation of "recognizing a house and subscribing for a loan".
In addition, some areas in Qingdao lifted the sales restriction, the second-hand housing sales restriction period in Suzhou was changed from 5 years to 3 years, Qinhuangdao abolished the purchase restriction order, and Quzhou also lifted the purchase restriction and sales restriction.
For more and more cities to release real estate loosening policies, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that this is a bailout for the industry. The regulatory measures of administrative intervention are originally short-term and are adjusted according to the wind direction of the property market. Pick it up when it's hot, and quit or loosen it when the property market is cold. This is normal.
This year's "Government Work Report" pointed out that stable growth should be placed in a more prominent position.
As a pillar industry in my country, the stability of real estate is not only related to the industry itself, but also affects upstream and downstream industries such as construction, building materials, construction machinery, and home furnishing.
Therefore, the stability of real estate is conducive to the stability of the economy.
Under the idea of "one city, one policy", all localities will implement the main responsibility for real estate regulation and introduce appropriate regulatory policies based on their own current conditions, which is expected to further release reasonable housing demand, gradually stabilize market expectations, and promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. It is of great significance to stabilize local growth, stabilize employment, prevent risks and protect people's livelihood.
"Five Limits" Policy Relaxation Test Water and Scale Grasp
Looking back at the previous two years, when the "five restrictions" policy on real estate regulation tried to be relaxed, it was always stopped. For example, in the first half of 2020, there were 12 cities where the policy-regulated "one-day tour" phenomenon occurred.
Today, under the idea of "one city, one policy", the "five restrictions" policies in some second-tier cities have loosened. Although it is a directional loosening, the signal is of great significance.
However, there are still many questions in the market. Can the relaxation of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and sales restrictions become mainstream?
What is the scale of relaxation?
According to Zhang Bo, director of the branch of the 58 Anju Room Real Estate Research Institute, there will be more cities with relaxed purchase restrictions.
In general, the gradual relaxation of the "five restrictions" policy will be rolled out in a larger area across the country, but the cities involved will obviously tend to be small and medium-sized cities where market supply exceeds demand, while the full relaxation of first- and second-tier hot cities is extremely unlikely. .
Li Yujia believes that before the purchase limit, it is necessary to withdraw from the sales limit and let the stock houses circulate.
In addition, the loosening of loan restrictions must be done or not done, and it cannot be withdrawn.
Because withdrawing from the loan restriction is likely to lead to the phenomenon of increased leverage and real estate speculation, the adjustment of the loan restriction policy, such as 30% of the down payment to 20%, cancellation of the house subscription and loan subscription, must monitor the changes in leverage, and must not increase leverage in violation of regulations, and must not trigger a new one round of speculation.
The most important thing is to control the leverage. For example, the down payment must be made by oneself or an immediate family member, and it must be managed through penetration.
In addition, it is necessary to control consumer loans and business loans, and not illegally flow into the real estate market.
The control choice between hotspot cities and non-hotspot cities
So, which cities have the conditions to relax real estate regulation?
Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that from the perspective of suppressing speculative investment, the current real estate market has undergone great changes. Many people go to real estate speculation. In this case, most cities may relax the regulation of real estate, and there are conditions to relax, but a few hot cities do not have the conditions, mainly because they are worried about real estate speculation.
It is worth noting that the major cities in my country not only have different economic development and consumption levels, but also have obvious differences in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market.
How to regulate the first-, second-, third- and fourth-tier cities?
How to choose the regulation policy between hot cities and non-hot cities?
Although Zhengzhou, Harbin and Lanzhou are provincial capitals, they have one thing in common with many deep cooling cities, that is, the supply and demand of the market are in a state of long-term imbalance.
Zhang Bo said that the cooling of the housing transaction market in such provincial capital cities will also accelerate the cooling of the land market. In addition, the management and control of the real estate finance side in the first two years have been strengthened, resulting in a lack of confidence in the real estate companies to acquire land.
Under the influence of the chain effect of the land market and the first- and second-hand housing transaction market, the market downturn will exist for a long time, which is also an important reason for the comprehensive and rapid relaxation of such urban policies.
Therefore, the next step for such provincial capital cities to introduce policies to control supply and increase demand will have a more direct impact on the market, including the adjustment of land supply policies and the active entry of self-occupied demand.
"However, not all provincial capital cities have the same fundamentals. Many hot provincial capital cities, such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xi'an, Chengdu, etc., have relatively balanced supply and demand, and even some cities are still in short supply, just due to early regulation and control. The strictness will prevent some self-occupied demand from entering the market. Once such cities are fully relaxed, it will easily lead to a rapid rise in the market heat, and even investment demand will rise again.” Zhang Bo said.
Written by / Beijing News reporter Duan Wenping