China News Service, April 11 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 11th, in March, due to factors such as the domestic spread of the epidemic and the rise in international commodity prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI returned to the "1 era".
CPI rise and fall chart.
from the National Bureau of Statistics
Year-on-year CPI growth rebounded significantly in March
According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.5% in March, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, food prices fell by 1.5%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI drop of about 0.28 percentage points.
Among food, the price of pork fell by 41.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.83 percentage points; the price of fresh vegetables changed from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 17.2%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.37 percentage points; The prices of edible vegetable oil, fresh fruit and aquatic products went up by 6.1%, 4.3% and 4.2% respectively, with the increase all falling back; the price of flour went up by 4.6%, and the increase increased by 1.9 percentage points.
Regarding the 17.2% rise in the price of fresh vegetables, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the epidemic in some places has had a certain impact on the production, demand and transportation of seasonal food.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics recently visited supermarkets and vegetable markets and found that the prices of various vegetables have risen compared with previous years, and the prices of peppers and beans have risen significantly. catty.
Vegetable prices in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
In addition, non-food prices rose by 2.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.77 percentage points.
Among non-food items, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 24.6%, 26.9% and 27.1% respectively, and the increase was expanded.
"According to estimates, in the 1.5% year-on-year increase in March, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.4 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.1 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices continued to remain stable, 3 The month-on-month increase was 1.1% year-on-year, the same increase as February." Dong Lijuan said.
Pork prices fall, flour prices rise
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI in March turned flat from an increase of 0.6% in the previous month.
Among them, food prices changed from an increase of 1.4% in the previous month to a decrease of 1.2%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.22 percentage points.
In food, due to factors such as the decline in consumer demand and sufficient supply after the festival, pork prices fell by 9.3% month-on-month and 41.4% year-on-year.
The prices of chicken, duck, beef, mutton, aquatic products and fresh fruits fell by 1.0%-2.3% month-on-month.
"Front and back tips are 12.9 yuan a pound, and pork belly is 16.8 yuan a pound," is the price of pork recently sold in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Zhongxin Finance reporter noticed that although the price of pork has remained stable recently, it has dropped by about 2 yuan per catty compared with January.
The picture shows pork sold in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
According to Dong Lijuan, the prices of flour, edible vegetable oil, fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 1.7%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, due to rising international prices of wheat, corn and soybeans and the impact of the domestic epidemic.
Year-on-year, the prices of edible vegetable oil, fresh fruit and aquatic products rose by 6.1%, 4.3% and 4.2% respectively, with the growth rate all falling back; the price of flour rose by 4.6%, with an increase of 1.9 percentage points.
In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of "pig, oil resonance"
According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from April 1 to April 7, the price of pork rose by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 49.1% year-on-year; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets in the country was 5.59 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from last week and up 28.9% year-on-year.
"Reviewing the performance of previous pig cycles, we expect that the pig price will likely bottom out in the second quarter of this year, confirming the starting point of a new round of pig cycles." Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, pointed out, but due to the weaker degree of production capacity reduction than in previous years, it is expected that Pig prices rose more moderately in the second half of the year.
Under the neutral scenario, it is expected to rebound by 30% from the low of the year, and the impact on inflation during the year will be controllable.
"Global commodity prices are easy to go up and down in the short term, and the imported inflation pressure on my country will also continue. From the current point of view, my country's inflation level is generally controllable, and the constraints on monetary policy are relatively limited, but in the second half of the year Pay attention to the effect of 'the resonance of pig and oil'." Wen Bin said.
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