The proportion of global foreign exchange reserves has repeatedly hit new highs——


　　The international influence of RMB continues to increase

　　The renminbi's status as the official reserve currency is continuing to strengthen.

According to the "Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)" data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the proportion of RMB in COFER rose again, continuing to brush the data since the IMF reported the data in the fourth quarter of 2016. new high.

　　In the fourth quarter of last year, the total RMB foreign exchange reserves rose from $320.15 billion in the third quarter of last year to $336.1 billion; the proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves rose from 2.66% in the third quarter of last year to 2.79%, ranking fifth in the world .

As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the dollar accounted for 58.81% of global foreign exchange reserves, slightly lower than 59% at the end of the third quarter of last year.

　　Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that in the international financial environment of long-term low interest rates, zero interest rates, and easy liquidity, the global scale of negative-yielding bonds is huge, reaching US$18.38 trillion by the end of 2020.

And RMB bonds, especially the 10-year RMB treasury bonds, still have a yield of 2% to 3%, which greatly increases the global supply of safe assets and enhances the international appeal of RMB assets.

　　Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the RMB has been the world's fifth largest international reserve currency for 13 consecutive quarters.

At present, more than 70 foreign central bank institutions have entered China's interbank bond market, and more than 75 national and regional monetary authorities have included RMB into their foreign exchange reserves.

According to the latest survey last year by the Official Forum of Monetary and Financial Institutions, an independent international think tank, about 30% of the world's central banks plan to increase their holdings of RMB reserves in the next 24 months, and 70% of the central banks are considering increasing their holdings in the long term.

　　"Under the situation of repeated global epidemics and changing geopolitical environment, my country's economy has maintained a leading pace of steady recovery as a whole. In particular, China's manufacturing advantages have become prominent, export performance has continued to exceed expectations, and the RMB exchange rate price has continued to run strongly, boosting the International investors' confidence in RMB assets has been increased, and overseas central banks and other institutions have correspondingly increased the allocation of RMB in their foreign exchange reserve currency composition." Feng Lin, a senior analyst at Oriental Jincheng, told reporters.

　　Statistics show that since joining the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) in October 2016, the proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has started from 1.08%, and the overall has entered a steady upward process.

In the meantime, except for the repeated RMB’s share in COFER due to the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions from the second half of 2018 to 2019, this indicator has basically increased steadily at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per quarter.

Even during the period from 2017 to the first half of 2018, during the rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the marginal relaxation of domestic monetary policy, the proportion of RMB in COFER still maintained an upward trend.

　　"Comparing the macroeconomic situation and external conditions at that time and now, whether the Fed accelerates the pace of monetary policy tightening or the complex and volatile international geopolitical situation will not constitute a substantial drag on the steady increase in the proportion of RMB in COFER. "Feng Lin said that for a period of time in the future, this indicator is likely to rise at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per quarter.

An important reason is that the current proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves is still far behind the proportion of my country's economic scale in the global economy.

　　Feng Lin believes that under the background of the steady growth of the domestic economy, my country's foreign economic and trade relations are expected to continue the normal development momentum, the domestic financial market will continue to open up in an orderly manner, and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. An important factor in the continued increase in holdings of RMB in the composition of reserve currencies.

　　Brazil’s central bank recently released data showing that last year Brazil increased the share of renminbi assets in its international currency reserves to 4.99%, an increase of more than three times from 1.21% at the end of 2020.

At the same time, the proportion of US dollars in the Brazilian central bank's foreign exchange reserves fell to 80.34%, a decrease of 5.69 percentage points from the end of 2020 and the lowest value since 2014.

　　In this regard, some market participants believe that under the current international situation, many central banks have begun to redefine the "gear pump" of new foreign exchange reserve asset allocation. Compared with the past, most foreign exchange reserves are placed in a few currencies (euro, The U.S. dollar, British pound, etc.) basket, and now they prefer to include the renminbi and other major economies' currencies in this basket, and the proportion of the renminbi and other emerging market currencies should be further increased.

　　In addition to the renminbi's share of global foreign exchange reserves hitting record highs, central banks' allocation to gold also rose last year.

According to data released by the World Gold Council, central banks increased their holdings of gold by a total of 463 tons last year, an increase of 82% over 2020, bringing the total gold reserves of global central banks to the highest level in nearly 30 years.

　　According to industry insiders, the positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and gold price volatility has tended to increase recently, and the RMB exchange rate is less volatile.

In an environment of increasingly differentiated global financial markets, global investors' demand for renminbi assets will further increase.

(Economic Daily reporter Yao Jin)