Securities Times reporter Tang Qiang

　　According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, more than 60 cities across the country have issued policies to loosen property market restrictions, including provincial capital cities such as Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, and Harbin, as well as second- and third-tier cities such as Qingdao, Qinhuangdao, and Quzhou.

Property market loosening in many places

　　In the face of the downturn in the real estate market, local governments continue to release benefits from provident fund loans, commercial loans, and housing subsidies.

　　In particular, on March 16 this year, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting pointed out that "with regard to real estate companies, it is necessary to timely study and propose effective and effective risk prevention and mitigation solutions, and propose supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model." Afterwards, various central departments followed up their statements to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and stabilize market expectations.

　　On March 1 this year, Zhengzhou City issued the "Notice on Promoting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry", becoming the first city in 2022 to relax the control policies of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions.

　　At the specific policy level, Zhengzhou took the lead in relaxing the purchase restriction policy, stipulating that if children and close relatives work and live in Zhengzhou, the elderly are encouraged to come to Zhengzhou to invest in the elderly, allowing their families to buy a new house. Families who have settled the corresponding housing loan, apply for a loan again to purchase ordinary commercial housing in order to improve their living conditions, and the banking financial institution implements the first-home loan policy.

　　On March 23, Harbin issued a notice to officially cancel the sales restriction policy.

It was previously stipulated that since May 2018, Harbin has implemented regional sales restrictions, and the purchase of houses in the six districts of the main city such as Daoli and Nangang can only be listed and traded after three years from the signing of the contract.

　　In fact, as early as October 2021, Harbin has issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Our City's Real Estate Market" and fired the first shot to "rescue the market", relaxing the age limit for second-hand housing provident fund loans and increasing it from 20 years. To 30 years, the sum of the loan period and the age of the house should not exceed 50 years.

At the same time, the calculation multiple of the provident fund personal housing loan loanable limit is adjusted to 20 times the balance of the borrower's provident fund account.

　　In April, Lanzhou City also issued the "Several Measures for Lanzhou City to Implement the Strategy of Strengthening the Provincial Capital and Further Optimize the Business Environment (No. 1)", reducing the down payment ratio for house purchases, directional relaxation of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, and stimulating market vitality.

　　Compared with the above-mentioned loose policies on the property market in the capital cities, the market generally believes that the new property market policy in Lanzhou is relatively larger in coverage and intensity.

　　In the Lanzhou property market new policy, the minimum down payment for the purchase of the first house by individuals through commercial bank and provident fund loans shall not be less than 20%, and the minimum down payment for the second house shall not be less than 30%.

At the same time, for families who own a house and have paid off the house purchase loan, if they apply for a loan to buy a house again in order to improve their living conditions, the first-home loan policy will be implemented.

In layman's terms, this is the implementation of "recognizing the loan without recognizing the house".

　　In terms of purchase restrictions, adults working and living in Lanzhou who need to bring their parents and other close relatives who live in different places to live in Lanzhou will be supported and allowed to purchase a new house in the purchase-restricted area; for families with two or three children , you can also buy a new property in the restricted area.

As a result, this opens a window of purchase restrictions to a certain extent.

　　In contrast, the property market in Quzhou, Zhejiang has been more relaxed, almost fully liberalizing the purchase and sale restrictions in the property market.

　　On April 1 this year, Quzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development issued the "Notice on Promoting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Urban Real Estate Industry". Non-local households, individual industrial and commercial households, and enterprises invested or controlled by natural persons are regarded as the city's Household registered households implement relevant house purchase policies.

　　In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said, "To return to the essence of regulation, the fundamental purpose of regulation is to prevent risks, and the rise in housing prices is not consistent with financial risks. In cities such as Beijing, buyers' transaction leverage is extremely low. , the rise in housing prices is mainly due to insufficient supply, and rising housing prices will not lead to financial risks. At the moment, we need to choose between rising housing prices in a few cities and a downturn in the overall market.”

　　Xu Xiaole believes, "Today's market situation, whether it is the number of home buyers or income growth expectations, is completely different from that of 2009 and 2015. As long as the leverage level is controlled, housing prices may not be able to rise sharply. During the rising stage of housing prices, we implement Many administrative control policies have been adopted, such as purchase restrictions, price restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions, etc. These policies are temporary policies adopted in response to the rapid rise in housing prices, and should be resolutely withdrawn when the market is in a downturn.”

The market starts to activate in March

　　What is the background of the introduction of the easing policies in the property market in various places, and is the house really unsellable?

　　In January 2022, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in 40 cities monitored by Yihan Think Tank was 17.723 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.7%.

Although the transactions in different cities are different, the transactions in most cities are dismal, with a year-on-year decrease.

Continuing the previous decline in February, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in 40 cities was 13.244 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.2%.

　　Entering March, with the loosening of property market policies in many cities, the market situation has undergone new changes.

　　In the first quarter, local policies focused on supporting the demand side, ranging from reducing mortgage interest rates, providing housing subsidies, lowering the threshold for settlement, raising the upper limit of provident fund loans, and reducing the down payment ratio of provident funds, to canceling the “housing subscription loan” to support improved housing purchases and reduce transactions Taxes, cancellation of sales restrictions, etc.

Cities with loose control policies are transmitted from third- and fourth-tier cities to second-tier provincial capital cities such as Zhengzhou and Harbin.

　　Judging from the actual effect, cities represented by Zhengzhou have adjusted their control policies according to market needs, and made adjustments in terms of transaction taxes and fees, restrictions on purchases, loans, and sales, and market expectations have also been improved to some extent.

　　After the promulgation of the "19th article of Zheng", the local second-hand housing market was activated.

According to the data disclosed by the Shell Research Institute, the average weekly viewing volume in Zhengzhou in March increased by 52% month-on-month, the average weekly transaction volume increased by 95% month-on-month, and the second-hand housing transaction volume in March was more than double that in February.

Despite the impact of seasonal repairs, the market is still improving significantly; the second-hand housing manager confidence index has remained above the line of prosperity and decline (50) since March, indicating that the expected volume of continuous repairs is strong.

　　In addition, in March 2022, the number of customers and newly listed houses in Shell 50 cities increased by more than 30% month-on-month; it is expected that the second-hand housing transaction volume will continue to increase in the second quarter, and the monthly year-on-year is expected to turn positive in the middle of the year.

In addition, according to the statistics of Kerui, the overall transaction area of ​​Zhengzhou in March was 460,000 square meters, although it still fell by 36% year-on-year, but it has increased by 91% month-on-month.

　　A relevant person from the Chengdu Branch of the Shell Research Institute told a reporter from Securities Times e Company that, stimulated by the deregulation of the property market, the transaction volume of second-hand housing increased month-on-month in the first quarter, prices basically stopped falling, and the market bottomed out.

In terms of new houses, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood after the policy adjustment. Many factors such as housing enterprise risks, capital flows, and interest rate differences will make the recovery of the new house market lag behind the second-hand market, but the market recovery is still expected.

　　From a more realistic and direct point of view, the sharp reduction in housing credit interest rates and the increase in local supportive policies are undoubtedly the key factors supporting the market recovery.

　　The central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate, and the mortgage interest rate continued to decline. Among the 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute in March, the mainstream first mortgage interest rate was 5.34%, and the second mortgage interest rate was 5.60%, respectively, compared with last December. 31 basis points.

　　Among them, March fell by 13 and 15 basis points from the previous month, the largest monthly decline since 2019; bank lending continued to accelerate, and the average lending cycle in 103 cities in March was about one month, close to the fastest rate in the third quarter of 2020.

The report of the Shell Research Institute pointed out that at present, nearly 50% of the cities have a loan period of less than one month, and 19 cities have a loan period of less than 20 days, of which the Yangtze River Delta cities account for 13 cities.

　　It is worth noting that the current market is facing problems with weak expectations, and the market repair process will be prolonged.

　　Although the second-hand housing transaction volume has recovered, the absolute level is still relatively low.

At present, the expectations of second-hand housing owners are weak. According to the data from the Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing climate index of Shell 50 cities recovered to above 20 in February and dropped to 18 in March. The market sentiment index of Harbin and Shijiazhuang, Qingdao, Taiyuan and other northern cities continued to be lower than 15, and the market is expected to be sluggish.

　　In addition, the Shell Research Institute pointed out that the sales of new houses have not improved significantly, and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land has not yet recovered.

In March, the new round of epidemic brought local control and brought more uncertainty to the market, which will prolong the market recovery process.

In the short term, property market prices may fluctuate sideways, and the restoration of future market expectations requires more precise policy care.

Cities at all levels are clearly differentiated

　　According to the data of 40 cities monitored by Yihan Think Tank, the sales area of ​​commercial residential buildings nationwide in March was 16.406 million square meters, down 47.6% year-on-year and up 27.1% month-on-month.

　　In March, the residential transaction volume in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all rebounded to different extents compared with February.

Among them, the transaction volume in Beijing was 611,000 square meters, an increase of 85.2% month-on-month; the transaction volume in Guangzhou was 571,000 square meters, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month; the transaction volume in Shenzhen was 324,000 square meters, an increase of 48.8% month-on-month.

However, Shanghai is a city with a decline in transaction volume, with a transaction volume of 767,000 square meters, down 31.0% month-on-month, or due to the impact of the epidemic, offline sales activities have been hindered, resulting in a decline in transactions.

　　Yihan Think Tank pointed out that the transaction volume of third- and fourth-tier cities also recovered in March, but the recovery was obviously less than that of second-tier cities, and even the transaction volume of some cities was still in a downward trend.

There are three reasons: that is, the market demand in third- and fourth-tier cities has been fully released, and only the market with just-in-demand cannot support the growth of transaction volume; some third- and fourth-tier cities have adopted regulatory policies to restrict house purchases, which has a certain degree of restraint on the market; attracting population The inflow capacity is relatively poor, and it is difficult for the local registered population to drive the market heat up.

　　In general, Yihan Think Tank believes that the real estate market in March has been repaired accordingly, but it is not as good as the same period in 2021, and there have been obvious differentiations in cities at all levels.

The overall performance of the first- and second-tier core cities is relatively stable, while the recovery efforts of the third- and fourth-tier cities are slightly insufficient.

However, with the continuous loosening of regulatory policies, the improved demand in first- and second-tier cities will be the main force driving the housing market.

Uneven hot and cold land market

　　Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that as of March 30, there were 3,755 new residential land supplies nationwide in the first quarter, with a planned construction area of ​​214 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of about 50%.

Among them, first- and second-tier cities fell by 58% and 51% respectively, which was mainly affected by the greater financial pressure of some traditional leading real estate companies, resulting in more cautious land supply in first- and second-tier cities.

　　In terms of land transactions, as of March 30, in the first quarter, there were 2,628 residential land auctions nationwide, with a planned construction area of ​​145 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of about 58%.

　　The Shell Research Institute believes that the reduction of land sales is affected by both supply and the epidemic, especially the recent repeated epidemics have had a greater impact on land sales.

However, due to the high quality of land sold in first-tier cities, land transfer fees accounted for 13.6% of the country, a slight increase from 2021, while land transfer fees in second-tier cities accounted for 43.7%, down 10% from last year. Second-tier cities were affected by this round of epidemics. The impact is more obvious.

　　From the perspective of premium rate, about 80% of the cities have an average premium rate of less than 5%, and the overall lower premium rate level is reflected in the land market.

According to the Shell Research Institute, the ability of real estate companies to acquire land is obviously insufficient, and it also provides favorable conditions for stable housing companies to increase their land reserves, which will even affect the future real estate market pattern.

　　Yihan Think Tank believes that the policy regulation of the real estate industry is to reduce the risks of the real estate industry, realize a virtuous circle, and achieve the ultimate goal of home ownership.

Therefore, after achieving reasonable management and control, the industry will slowly get on the right track and achieve healthier and longer-term development.