(Economic Watch) How much will global food prices hit a new record high impact on China?

  China News Agency, Beijing, April 9 (Reporter Liu Liang) According to the latest data released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, world food commodity prices jumped to the highest level in history in March.

Among them, international wheat, corn and vegetable oil prices rose significantly.

Why are global food prices hitting new highs?

Will the Chinese market be affected?

  Currently, global food prices are rising.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6% month-on-month after climbing to the highest level since its establishment in 1990 in February, according to data from the FAO that tracks monthly changes in international prices of food commodities.

The March index level was 33.6% higher than a year earlier.

  Global food prices hit a new high in March, mainly due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

FAO analysis pointed out that since late February, the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has severely impacted the international staple food and vegetable oil markets, causing global food prices to jump to a new historical high again in March.

Wheat and all coarse grain commodity prices rose sharply, with the FAO Cereal Price Index up 17.1 percent month-on-month in March.

  The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has triggered a rise in global food prices, which is related to the important positions of the two countries in the global food supply system.

  According to FAO statistics, Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine ranks fifth.

The two countries together account for 19% of global barley supply, 14% of wheat supply and 4% of maize supply, and account for more than one-third of global cereal exports.

In the past three years, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for about 30% and 20% of global wheat and corn exports, respectively.

At the same time, the two countries are also major suppliers of rapeseed, accounting for 52% of the world sunflower oil export market.

  Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in recent years, affected by the new crown epidemic, natural disasters and other factors, the global supply and demand situation of major food prices has tightened. The outbreak further exacerbated the global supply and demand tension, boosting global food prices to continue to rise.

  Affected by the rise in global food prices, the prices of agricultural products in many domestic farmers' markets have also fluctuated and rose recently.

As global food prices hit a new high again in March, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, and whether China will be affected has also aroused market attention.

  According to the market operation monitoring system of the Ministry of Commerce of China, from March 28 to April 3, the national market price of edible agricultural products rose by 1.9% over the previous week.

During the same period, data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the wholesale price index of agricultural products and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products also increased from the previous week, and both were more than 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

  In Li Guoxiang's view, the recent rise in the prices of domestic agricultural products is mainly affected by the current international situation, but it will not have a significant impact on the Chinese market in the short term.

At present, the fluctuation of food prices in China is still within the controllable range.

  According to FAO data, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on international food prices is mainly reflected in the significant rise in international prices of wheat, corn and vegetable oil.

  Data showed that world wheat prices surged 19.7% month-on-month in March; at the same time, corn prices rose 19.1% month-on-month, hitting a record high together with barley and sorghum prices.

The vegetable oil price index rose by 23.2% month-on-month due to higher quotations for sunflower oil, the world's leading exporter of sunflower oil.

In contrast, the FAO Rice Price Index was little changed from February, still down 10 percent from a year earlier.

  Li Guoxiang said that from the perspective of the wheat market, domestic wheat prices are basically controllable through national regulation; in terms of vegetable oil, Chinese residents mainly consume rapeseed oil and peanut oil. It is stable, and from the perspective of imports, among China's main imported oils, the proportion of sunflower oil is relatively small, so it will not have much impact on China.

  Talking about the impact of corn market prices, he said that Ukraine is one of the main countries that import corn into China. If its corn export volume declines, it may have some impact on China, but China is also planning to expand corn planting recently. The enthusiasm is also high, and it is expected to make up for most of the losses caused by the reduction in imports from Ukraine.

  Looking forward to the trend of global food prices in the later period, Li Guoxiang admitted that there is still great uncertainty.

Given the status of Russia and Ukraine in the field of agricultural production, global agricultural prices are expected to remain affected by this.

  In his view, the sanctions imposed on Russia by European and American countries may further affect global food prices.

Because in terms of production scale, Russia's agricultural output is larger than Ukraine's, and the escalation of sanctions against Russia will greatly increase the cost of agricultural transportation, which will have spillover effects on prices and push up global food prices.

  In response to the global food price situation, Li Guoxiang said that at present, the Chinese government is vigorously stepping up production, and the food supply is generally sufficient.

Recently, various departments and localities in China have successively introduced measures to strengthen the supply of important agricultural products to further meet and ensure the consumption needs of residents.

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